This Saturday could mark the end for a few drivers outside the Chase for the Cup in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.  Some drivers have got to step up and make a statement at Bristol, and others may go "crash boom bang" right out of Chase contention.  There are 12 drivers in the Chase for the Cup, and the new format has drivers set by number of wins.  Currently in NASCAR's Top 12, there are 5 drivers who have yet to win a race this year, 3 of them former champions, and 4 of them past winners at the World's Fastest Half-Mile, Bristol Motor Speedway.  Today, we take a closer look at each of these 5 drivers.  We'll look at some of their struggles, why they have yet to visit victory lane in 2008, and whether any of them will win before the Chase begins.  We'll also look at the latest each driver has gone into a season before winning for the first time.

We start with 2-time series champion Tony Stewart.  Smoke currently sits 6th in the points standings, and cannot mathematically fall out of the Top 12 after Bristol.  How close is it though?  The amount of points which separates 1st and 43rd in a race is 161...he's 162 ahead of 13th place Clint Bowyer.  He doesn't want to lose a ton of points though.  Smoke has been the most consistent driver in the Chase who doesn't have a win to his name so far this season.  He does have a win in the Bristol night race back in 2001, but he's been having fun in the sun the past 3 years when it comes to Bristol.  He's led a combined 769 laps in the last 3 Food City 500s...the last 3 Sharpie 500s, a big fat 0!  That's right, Tony Stewart has not led a single lap in the Bristol night race.  In fact, the last lap Tony Stewart led under the lights in the Sharpie 500 at Bristol was lap 500 back in 2001 when he won the race.  He hasn't led a single lap in the last 6 years after the sun goes down!  The latest Smoke has ever gone into a season before winning his first race was his rookie year of 1999, when he captured his first career (then) Winston Cup victory in Richmond.  It's a matter of time before Smoke returns to victory lane, but the Sharpie 500 may not be the place.

Next on our stop is the Roush camp and the #16 of Greg Biffle.  Greg is 7th in the points as they stand right now, and certainly helped his cause at Michigan.  While he didn't win, his top-5 finish vaulted him 3 spots in the standings, and gave him a 145-point cushion over 13th.  While that's not a mathematical lock, The Biff realistically shouldn't fall out of the Chase after Bristol.  Biffle's last win came last September in Kansas, in a race which was rain-delayed and eventually shortened due to impending darkness.  Biffle has never won at Bristol, but his 9.7 average finish is the best of any track he races on in the Sprint Cup Series (Thank you NASCAR.com!).  Biffle can't get any higher than 6th in the standings after the Sharpie 500 as he's over 200 points behind 5th place Jeff Burton.  He can give himself some more breathing room over 13th though providing he has another finish like he did this past sunday up in the Irish Hills of Michigan.  This is the furthest The Biff has ever gone into a seaon before winning for the first time.  Prior to this, his longest winless drought to start a season was 2004 when he didn't win until last weekend's 2nd Michigan race.  He's now setting himself a new record in that department, but he's lost every which way possible in 2008.  Whether it be close finishes, bad pit stops, or more speeding tickets than Martin Sheen has had DUIs, Greg Biffle has seen it all this year.  Biffle will try to cross Bristol off of his "I've never won here" list this Saturday night, and if he does it won't be a surprise due to his success here in the past.

The third member of our "I'm in the Chase, but I'm winless" crew is the only RCR driver without a win to date in 2008, and that's Kevin Harvick.  "Happy" has not had the best runs this season, but like his on-track rival Biffle, he jumped up 3 spots in the standings to 8th when all was said and done in Michigan a few days ago.  The 2007 Daytona 500 winner has no wins and no poles so far this year, yet he has a 103-point advantage over his RCR teammate Clint Bowyer in 13th.  Harvick has gone winless once before back in 2004 when he missed the first Chase for the Cup, and also missed the chance at the $1 meellion dollar bonus for finishing 11th (he ended the year 14th in points).  Happy Harvick does have a win at Bristol which came in the Food City 500 in 2005.  He finished 2nd to teammate Jeff Burton here back in March in the RCR 1-2-3 finish.  Kevin Harvick needs another solid run like he had at Michigan.  It would be a huge momentum boost if Harvick could pull off a victory in the Sharpie 500, but I say don't count on it.

The fourth driver in this (not so) fab five is appearing to be the star in a new episode of The Outer Limits.  That's 4-time series champion Jeff Gordon!  Jeff finished 42nd in Michigan after contact between he, Stewart, and teammate Jimmie Johnson led to a cut tire sending him into the wall.  Just a week earlier, he dropped in the standings thanks to a 29th-place finish at Watkins Glen!  Something is a miss with the 24 team right now, and they've got to get it together this weekend, or they're going to be sweating it out even more the last 2 races before the Chase.  Jeff Gordon didn't win a race in his rookie year of 1993.  His first win came in the 1994 Coca-Cola 600.  Since then, the furthest Jeff Gordon has ever gone into a season before making his first trip to victory lane is this very weekend, when he won the 2002 Sharpie 500 from the pole.  Even when he missed the Chase in 2005, he started off the season with a bang by winning his 3rd Daytona 500.  But low and behold, the #24 is in danger of missing the Chase for the Cup once again.  He sits just 82 points in front of Clint Bowyer, and needs something to go right starting Saturday.  This team has no margin for error now if they plan on making the 2008 Chase for the Cup.  With the inconsistency this team has shown so far this year, I'm not sure I can bank on Jeff Gordon winning a race before the start of the Chase.

Last but not least on our list of winless Chasers is 2003 Winston Cup Series Champion Matt Kenseth.  Matt finished 39th in this race last year after an accident ruined his night.  However, Kenseth won this race back-to-back in 2005 and 2006, and has 5 top-10 finishes in his 8 Bristol night races.  Could this be the break the Killer Bees have been looking for?  It's quite possible.  I predicted Kenseth would win last week in Michigan, and while he didn't, he managed to jump over a couple drivers to 10th in the standings, giving himself a slight edge over 13th, but still not enough.  Kenseth needs to do it again, and hopefully finish even higher than the 5th he earned 3 days ago.  Matt has also gone winless in a season back in his sophomore season of 2001.  He does have a great track record in the Bristol night race though, and once again this could be just what the doctor ordered for the #17 bunch.  Like Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth has absolutely no margin for error over the next 3 weeks if he's going to remain in the Top 12 after the checkered flag falls in Richmond.  He's just 72 points away from falling back out of the Chase, a spot he's been in more than once already this year.  If he does it again though, it's big trouble.  This is the last place on the schedule you want to have problems.  Could it be another Roushketeer-dominated performance? Well just like Michigan, Jack Roush has had at least one car visit victory lane in Bristol in the Cup Series since 2002.  If any of these 5 winless Chasers are going to break out of their slump in Bristol, my money is on Matt Kenseth.  Out of these 5 drivers, he's the only driver who has NEVER missed the Chase for the Cup in the 4 years it's been implemented.  He and 2-time defending series champion Jimmie Johnson are the only drivers to hold that stat.  Jimmie is basically locked in, and Matt would certainly like to keep that stat going right along with him.

I look for all 5 of these drivers to have good runs in this Saturday's Sharpie 500 at Bristol.  They all know what's at stake here, and none of them wants to be the driver to falter and take the plunge out of the Chase, because they know they may not make it back in at this point.  Stewart and Biffle have some breathing room, but still want to have a good run to either keep that distance or even increase their lead over 13th.  For Harvick, Gordon, and Kenseth, they're all down to their last strike.  It's the bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, and they're down by a run.  All 3 of those guys need a home run (victory) or at least a triple (top 5) to stay in the Top 12.  Will any of them do it?  There's only one way to find out.  It's guaranteed to be an exciting race, and hopefully for these 5 drivers, it will be a great night.

BK over and out