Here we go, we've gotten through 3 races in the 2008 Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship and things are still tight at the top, with our top 3 in points separated by just 30.  How close is that in terms of track position?  It's very close, so close in fact that, with the current points system, if the winner leads the most laps and the 3rd place finisher doesn't lead a single lap, that's a 30-point swing right there!  But this week we've got bigger fish to fry.  What will happen with the Chasers?  Can a first-time winner emerge?  Will another winless Chaser break out of his slump?  What about those 3 dreaded words...THE BIG ONE?  Here's what you can expect to see on Sunday.

This is an impound race, and the first Talladega race this year was also an impound race which saw the "go or go home" drivers starting at the top, with Joe Nemechek on the pole along side Tony Stewart and row 2 composed of Ken Schrader and A.J. Allmendinger.  So far, Jeff Burton is the fastest in the first practice, and the top 5 are all in the top 35 in owner points.  However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a go-or-go-homer grab the pole again.  Those guys who have to qualify on time usually fare very well in qualifying for impound races.  That could happen again, but as is always the case, they'll all wind up 25th at best by the end of the day because they don't have their cars set up for race conditions.

We'll see who gets the pole on Saturday morning when qualifying airs on SPEED, but already there are problems for several drivers.  Both David Ragan and Dale Earnhardt Jr. had to change engines in this morning's practice.  NASCAR has a one engine rule, so because they changed the engine, their qualifying runs will be solely for pit selection, and they will both have to start Sunday's race at the rear of the field.  If that wasn't enough, Junior cut a tire and crashed in happy hour, so he'll have to go to a backup car, as will David Gilliland who got caught up in the mayhem.  Tony Stewart and Kasey Kahne were also involved in the incident.  So where do you want to start?  It doesn't make a difference at all to be perfectly honest.  You can be the pole sitter, get freight trained as soon as the green flag flies, and be 15th by the end of the first lap.  On the other hand, you can start in the back and still be up to the front in no time if you have a good car.  The furthest a winner has come from to win this race was 36th, so starting position really isn't important at Talladega.

Another reason starting position makes no difference is because you're not safe anywhere.  Everyone will be praying they don't get caught up in the big one.  Here's some examples.  In this race in 1996, it started when the front 3 got together coming out of the tri-oval.  In the Spring of 2002, it started about 10th in line or so on the backstretch.  In 2001 the wreck started when Bobby Labonte blocked Bobby Hamilton running about 3rd or 4th on the final lap.  Last year it happened in the middle of the field in turn 3.  In 2005 there were 2 big wrecks.  This has also been the site of some of the wildest rides in NASCAR, such as Scott Riggs in 2005 near halfway, Elliott Sadler in 2003 with 7 to go and 2004 coming to the line, and Rusty Wallace coming to the checkered flag in 1993 just to name a few.  Wallace actually finished in 6th position flying through the air.

This is a crucial race for the 12 drivers in the Chase.  They will all have to be on guard for the massive wreck.  Everyone wants to get to the front, but if a driver has a problem here, it could be the end of his championship dreams for 2008.  The drivers at the bottom of the Chase can't afford another failure.  For the top 3, they want to keep doing what they've been doing for the last 3 weeks, stay up front.  The drivers behind them would love to make a statement this weekend, and that could come from one of the 4 remaining winless Chasers.  If any of those 4 wins on Sunday, it will be Jeff Gordon, but that team just doesn't have it together this year.

What about a first-time winner?  We haven't had one yet this year in a points-paying race.  There have been plenty of first-time winners at Talladega in the past, most recently Brian Vickers in this race 2 years ago.  This was also the site of the first victory for Richard Brickhouse (who won the inaugural race here in 1969), Dick Brooks, Lennie Pond, Ron Bouchard, Bobby Hillin Jr., Davey Allison, Phil Parsons, and Ken Schrader.

There are 2 drivers who have a combined 11 wins at this track.  You may have heard of them.  Their names are Jeff Gordon (6 wins) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (5 wins).  No other driver has more than 4.  These 2 will look to close in on Dale Earnhardt's record of 10 Talladega victories.  Other former Talladega winners locked into this week's race are Brian Vickers, Jimmie Johnson, Michael Waltrip, Kyle Busch, Terry and Bobby Labonte.  Ken Schrader is on the entry list, but must qualify on time.  So with all these variables being taken into account, who will win on Sunday?

My Pick: Dale Earnhardt Jr. - I know he'll have to start at the rear of the field, but he'll be up front before you know it.  With 5 Talladega victories and a much better season than his teammate Jeff Gordon, the other good shot for a victory, Junior will get to the front and stay there.  He'll pick up win #6 at Talladega and pick up a few of those spots in the standings he lost at Dover.

Dark Horse: Jeff Gordon - As I mentioned, Gordon has 6 victories at Talladega, surpassing Dale Jr. by sweeping the races here last year.  He's had a lackluster season and has never gone this far into a season without a win since his rookie year of 1993 when he didn't win at all.  Next week at Lowe's marks one year since his last win.  Normally I'd put him in a tie with Junior for my pick, but his disappointing season to date is the reason he's the dark horse.  He's a driver to watch, and could steal one, but he's not the best pick to win this weekend.

Of course these predictions are all for naught if the big one wipes out 30 cars, which could happen.  So fasten your seatbelts for Sunday, because NASCAR is in for one wild ride at Talladega.  The coverage starts at 1 PM ET on ABC.  Until then I'm your NASCAR VP, and this has been your official Q race preview...NOW LET'S GO RACING!

BK over and out