Four races left until the Chase begins and already Tony Stewart has a position locked up.  All he has to do is show up for one of those four races.  Is this what NASCAR wants for their Chase?  Well, I don't know, but it's what they've got. 

A year ago when Tony announced he was leave the Gibb's powerhouse, a bunch of fans wrote him off,  criticizing his decision and counting him out of this year's Chase - hell they were almost counting him out of NASCAR.  Not only has Smoke shown the rest of the field how to get the job done so far, Ryan Newman is having a better season than he's had in a long time, sitting in 9th.   Granted, they have Hendrick power under the hood, but he is showing he can drive that car, something it seems was in doubt.

Another surprise in the season is the performance of the Michael Waltrip Racing cars.  It's the last year Michael Waltrip will be in the number 55 car, as Martin Truex Jr. joins the operation for 2010, but he'll be joining a strong team, one with two drivers in the top 20 heading into the Chase, something no one would have believed a year ago.  A few short races ago, we were all amazed at David Reutimann's finishes, but more recently, it's been the "wonder from down under", Marcos Ambrose, who has shon.  Monday's 2nd place finish in the Helluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen, following his first place finish in the Nationwide race, shows the man is here to stay.

The Gibbs and Roush cars aren't having the year they envisioned, with Carl Edwards still winless so far in the season and Matt Kenseth still struggling after wiinning the first two races of the year.   Greg Biffle has had some good finishes, and with his fifth on Monday, sits 10th in points, but Jamie McMurray is virtually invisible. 

Kyle Busch has shown he can win, but unfortunately, his non-winning races are more the story than his winning races, and he sits outside the final Chase spot, something unimaginable at the beginning of the year.  Denny has a win, and is in the Chase in 5th spot, the highest of the Gibbs cars.  Joey Logano hasn't had the season Gibbs hoped, giving credence to the "experts'" opinion that he should spend a year in Nationwide before making the jump to Cup.

Also unimaginable, at least to a few people, is the presence of Juan Pablo Montoya in the Chase.  The open wheel cross over has finally figured out these stock car monstrosities, and although he is in Earnhardt-Ganassi equipment, virtually written off last year, he is show Chip Ganassi that he wasn't wrong in sticking with the Columbian.  JPM is gaining respect, fans and experience every time he drives on the track.  At this rate, a Sprint Cup Championship really isn't out of the question.

Perhaps the biggest surprise though, something that hasn't changed since my last ramblings, is the position the Richard Childress Racing cars find themselves in.  The rumors of Kevin Harvick's imminent departure have quieted, but this fan has no doubt it's only smoke and mirrors and there is likely to be a shake up at RCR.  Clint Bowyer is the highest placing member of RCR at this point of the Race to the Chase, and he's in 15th.  The absence of Kevin and Jeff Burton from the top fifteen is baffling.   Kevin Harvick isn't even in the top twenty, sitting in 22nd.  One might argue he has distractions, what with his Nationwide and Truck teams, but that is unlikely, given these teams have been in place for years.

But what about Hendrick? Hendrick powers the top three cars in the points, along with the 9th and 10th place cars, but Mark, with 4 wins, should be sitting higher than 10th.  Oh yes, and what of Dale Earnhardt Jr?  He's mired back with Kevin Harvick.

Arguments can be made that the COT is a factor, but really, is it?  I think it is more that NASCAR has determined that they will make this particular playing field as even as possible and they have done so.  Not everyone can be a winner in every race.  And it does seem that success has its cycles.  Hendrick is enjoying the longest cycle we've seen in a while, at least as far as Jimmie Johnson is concerned, but Jeff Gordon has not had stellar seasons the past few years.  Don't get me wrong, he has been successful, but his protege Jimmie has overshadowed him.  Kyle found success at HMS, but not nearly the success he has had a Gibbs.  Dale Jr has struggled mightily this year, as many have reported, but even when he improves, every move he makes is still being analyzed and over-analyzed. I have to see what the "experts" will have to say about his brake failure at Watkins Glen.  Mark Marin has had incredible success this year as well, but he has also struggled.

What does it all mean?  What's going to shake out in the next four weeks?  One thing is for sure, Tony is going to be in it.  And if you are a wagering type, I'd be putting money on all of the top five being in as well.  Will the rest of the top 12 stay the same, or will we see it all change.  I don't have a crystal ball, so I don't know, but I'm not missing a race from here on in, I can promise you.