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2/7/09
NCAA Basketball Cinderella Watch 2
Who Could Come Out Of Nowhere In March? [NCAABB Cinderella Watch]
READ MORE:
NCAABB, Rumors, Utah St. Aggies, Butler Bulldogs, Northern Iowa Panthers, Fantasy, Team News / Analysis
by Michael_Luchies more posts by author
35
Cinderella Watch is a look at some of the unknown college basketball teams that could make or break your bracket.  These teams are all from mid-major schools.  In the last Cinderella Watch I covered Siena (18-5), Portland State (16-7), and VMI (18-4).  Here are three more teams to follow as we continue to approach March Madness. 

#25. Utah State (22-1, 10-0 WAC)
Key Wins: Utah
The Utah State Aggies are getting national hype due to their 22-1 record.  Despite their record, Utah State has not played one Top 25 team in any of their 23 games.  The Aggies have a great senior forward in Gary Wilkinson who could be an X-factor in the NCAA Tournament.  Wilkinson averages 17.3 points, and 7.5 rebounds per game.  Wilkinson is the only senior on this entire roster.  There are no ranked teams in the WAC and the Aggies could go undefeated the rest of the way.  The Aggies could be a highly touted Cinderella pick when the tournament comes around, but be wary of this team that will continue to receive national attention.  The best team Utah St. faced this season was BYU, and they lost (63-68). 

Northern Iowa (17-6, 11-1 MVC)
Key Wins: Auburn, Illinois State @Creighton, @Bradley
Northern Iowa has come out of nowhere this year in the weaker than usual Missouri Valley Conference.  Northern Iowa lost their first conference game to Indiana State (84-85) and since has won 11 straight games and has a 3 game leas in the conference.  They are a very young team with only 2 seniors, and 6 freshman on their roster.  This team will be very dangerous in the NCAA Tournament.  4 of their last 5 victories have been by 5 or less points and several have been late game comebacks.  Their two victories against Bradley were both via large deficits late in the game.  Although they have no individual standout stars, they are a scrappy group who gets the job done late in games.  I could easily see this Northern Iowa team upset a a major conference school in the first round of the tourney.

#11. Butler (20-2, 11-1 Horizon)
Key Wins: @ Xavier, UAB
Butler is a future powerhouse basketball school in the making.  After a strong showing last year, the Bulldogs are back again this year and turning some heads along the way.  Butlers 9 point victory at Xavier is what put them on the map this season.  The bulldogs have a fantastic 6-8 freshman star in Gordon Hayward who leads the Bulldogs in points at 13.8 per game and also adds 6 rebounds a night.  The Bulldogs only losses have been to Ohio State and Wisconsin Green Bay.  They are worthy of their national ranking, and will prove it again when March comes around.  This mid-major school is ready to make a Sweet 16 run...or possibly further. 
READ MORE: NCAABB, Rumors, Utah St. Aggies, Butler Bulldogs, Northern Iowa Panthers, Fantasy, Team News / Analysis
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2/7/09
3

This year's Davidson team is not nearly as good as last years.  This year Davidson lost 3 starters from last years team inlcuding their PG.  As a result, Curry has had to play PG during a lot of the games, thus preventing Davidson to run plays to get him the ball for an open shot.  Also, Curry is the only scoring threat on this years team, and oppsing teams are not allowing him to have good shots.  Davidson was a 7 seed with a 24-6 record.  They are on track for about the same record, and assuming the selection commitee follows the pattern for last year they will be either anywhere froma 6 at best to a 10 seed.  They would be exteremly lucky if they get past the 2nd round this year because everyone knows if you stop Curry you beat Davidson.  The difference from last year is that their were other scoring threats than Curry. 

The problem with teams from smaller conferences that makes a run such as Davison and George Mason is that the average fan expects the team to repeat their performance in the following years.  The problem with this thought process is that the reason these smaller teams were able to make the run that they did was that the 4 or 5 of the starters are junors or seniors,  have played together for years, and are playing teams from a major conference were the team is composed of a lot of fresman sphomores possibly juniors, and the rare senor.  In other words, you a team that has played together for a few years playing against a team where the 5 starters might have played together for 2 years if they are lucky.   As a result, when a smaller team makes a run the majority of those players will not be back the next year.

 

2/7/09
2
Butler is a team like Gonzaga (from a non-power conference) who always finds themself in the discussion. They should have ascended from potential Cinderella status by now.

2/7/09
0
Davidson.

2/7/09
0
The Mountain West is better anyway. The cross-sport dominance could help their case for an automatic BCS bid (which I believe they deserve).

2/7/09
0
Davidson is dangerous. I'm sayin elite 8

2/7/09
0
i'll get back to you. all i know is stephen curry is a beast.

2/7/09
0
UW Huskies. Outside Chance at the most!

2/7/09
0
AZ Wildcats!!!

2/7/09
2

VMI is dangerous.  I learned the hard way as a UK fan.  They shoot, shoot, shoot, and score, score, score.

They don't miss 3's.

2/7/09
0
WhoDey wrote:

VMI is dangerous.  I learned the hard way as a UK fan.  They shoot, shoot, shoot, and score, score, score.

They don't miss 3's.

Ahh yes.

I can't believe Lunardi had them as a 15 seed.

2/7/09
0
THE_Smoot wrote:
Ahh yes.

I can't believe Lunardi had them as a 15 seed.
Because he is an idiot.
But I feel very bad for whoever plays them in the first round, because VMI can beat anyone.  If only they could play some defense.

And I agree with your Butler comment as well.

2/7/09
0
WhoDey wrote:
Because he is an idiot.
But I feel very bad for whoever plays them in the first round, because VMI can beat anyone.  If only they could play some defense.

And I agree with your Butler comment as well.
It could be like Hampton beating Iowa State in 2001 (and not like Winthrop in 2006 or Belmont in 2008).

Davidson just lost.

I agree. VMI is dangerous.

2/7/09
0
THE_Smoot wrote:
It could be like Hampton beating Iowa State in 2001 (and not like Winthrop in 2006 or Belmont in 2008).

Davidson just lost.

I agree. VMI is dangerous.
I think it's funny, because me and Logan are doing the bracket thing again, we're just gonna split them up this year, but I can't wait to see how many people have Davidson doing well and going far (They seriously lost to College of Charleston?).

2/7/09
0
WhoDey wrote:
I think it's funny, because me and Logan are doing the bracket thing again, we're just gonna split them up this year, but I can't wait to see how many people have Davidson doing well and going far (They seriously lost to College of Charleston?).
Yes they did. 'Twas a nice block @ the end.

I hope I'm leading after the second round again this year. Davidson ruined me last year (Wisconsin...).

I've really slacked off on my Bracketology. I haven't really gotten around to it.

2/7/09
0
THE_Smoot wrote:
Yes they did. 'Twas a nice block @ the end.

I hope I'm leading after the second round again this year. Davidson ruined me last year (Wisconsin...).

I've really slacked off on my Bracketology. I haven't really gotten around to it.
I picked Wisconsin to win it all last year.  Jacon only won because he had all the 1 seeds, which WON'T happen this year.  I'm glad Logan and I are splitting this year so neither of us can be accused of cheating.  I can't wait.  We're aiming at getting 80 people in it this year.

2/7/09
0
What do you mean by "splitting"?

2/7/09
0
THE_Smoot wrote:
What do you mean by "splitting"?
I mean, each of us are scoring some of the brackets.

2/7/09
0
WhoDey wrote:
I mean, each of us are scoring some of the brackets.
Ahh...

This year's tournament will be tough to predict.

2/7/09
0
THE_Smoot wrote:
Ahh...

This year's tournament will be tough to predict.
Very.  I like Clemson to be a surprise, sorta, they're underrated (kinda bias).
Vanderbilt is surging.
Mississippi State was down by 15 at half, and made a great comeback today, not sure if they won or not, but whatshisface center blocks everything that comes his way.
Cincinnati is very underrated in the Big East.

2/7/09
0
WhoDey wrote:
Very.  I like Clemson to be a surprise, sorta, they're underrated (kinda bias).
Vanderbilt is surging.
Mississippi State was down by 15 at half, and made a great comeback today, not sure if they won or not, but whatshisface center blocks everything that comes his way.
Cincinnati is very underrated in the Big East.
Mississippi State won today.

Vanderbilt would need a deep run in the SEC tournament IMO.

UCLA killed Notre Dame. Would this year possibly make their 4th Final Four in a row?

2/7/09
0
THE_Smoot wrote:
Mississippi State won today.

Vanderbilt would need a deep run in the SEC tournament IMO.

UCLA killed Notre Dame. Would this year possibly make their 4th Final Four in a row?
Alrighty.

And I agree, but they have played great as of well.

And I just think Notre Dame is way overrated.

And I think a team that will make a big run in the Dance is Washington.

2/7/09
0
WhoDey wrote:
Alrighty.

And I agree, but they have played great as of well.

And I just think Notre Dame is way overrated.

And I think a team that will make a big run in the Dance is Washington.
Davidson, Clemson, and Xavier all lost today.

I haven't heard much about the 2nd best Huskies in the nation.

Notre Dame won't even make the NIT. Georgetown's headed that way too.

2/7/09
0
THE_Smoot wrote:
Davidson, Clemson, and Xavier all lost today.

I haven't heard much about the 2nd best Huskies in the nation.

Notre Dame won't even make the NIT. Georgetown's headed that way too.

Yeah, I just saw the Xavier.  Didn't see Clemson did.  Those are my "backup" teams behind UK.
I think UConn will make the Final 4, but for some reason I just think they'll slip.

2/7/09
0
Also Arizona State could be a surprise.

2/7/09
1
A team that won't go far is Duke. I can't see them getting as lucky as they did against Miami today for six consecutive games.

2/7/09
3

This year's Davidson team is not nearly as good as last years.  This year Davidson lost 3 starters from last years team inlcuding their PG.  As a result, Curry has had to play PG during a lot of the games, thus preventing Davidson to run plays to get him the ball for an open shot.  Also, Curry is the only scoring threat on this years team, and oppsing teams are not allowing him to have good shots.  Davidson was a 7 seed with a 24-6 record.  They are on track for about the same record, and assuming the selection commitee follows the pattern for last year they will be either anywhere froma 6 at best to a 10 seed.  They would be exteremly lucky if they get past the 2nd round this year because everyone knows if you stop Curry you beat Davidson.  The difference from last year is that their were other scoring threats than Curry. 

The problem with teams from smaller conferences that makes a run such as Davison and George Mason is that the average fan expects the team to repeat their performance in the following years.  The problem with this thought process is that the reason these smaller teams were able to make the run that they did was that the 4 or 5 of the starters are junors or seniors,  have played together for years, and are playing teams from a major conference were the team is composed of a lot of fresman sphomores possibly juniors, and the rare senor.  In other words, you a team that has played together for a few years playing against a team where the 5 starters might have played together for 2 years if they are lucky.   As a result, when a smaller team makes a run the majority of those players will not be back the next year.

 

2/7/09
0
phillydeac4life wrote:

This year's Davidson team is not nearly as good as last years.  This year Davidson lost 3 starters from last years team inlcuding their PG.  As a result, Curry has had to play PG during a lot of the games, thus preventing Davidson to run plays to get him the ball for an open shot.  Also, Curry is the only scoring threat on this years team, and oppsing teams are not allowing him to have good shots.  Davidson was a 7 seed with a 24-6 record.  They are on track for about the same record, and assuming the selection commitee follows the pattern for last year they will be either anywhere froma 6 at best to a 10 seed.  They would be exteremly lucky if they get past the 2nd round this year because everyone knows if you stop Curry you beat Davidson.  The difference from last year is that their were other scoring threats than Curry. 

The problem with teams from smaller conferences that makes a run such as Davison and George Mason is that the average fan expects the team to repeat their performance in the following years.  The problem with this thought process is that the reason these smaller teams were able to make the run that they did was that the 4 or 5 of the starters are junors or seniors,  have played together for years, and are playing teams from a major conference were the team is composed of a lot of fresman sphomores possibly juniors, and the rare senor.  In other words, you a team that has played together for a few years playing against a team where the 5 starters might have played together for 2 years if they are lucky.   As a result, when a smaller team makes a run the majority of those players will not be back the next year.

 

Well, Loyola held Curry scoreless, yet Davidson beat them badly. Loyola is no Oklahoma or Connecticut though.

2/7/09
0
Or dare i say... Michigan!

2/7/09
0
THE_Smoot wrote:
Butler is a team like Gonzaga (from a non-power conference) who always finds themself in the discussion. They should have ascended from potential Cinderella status by now.
They are close to becoming the next Gonzaga...but I wouldn't put them up there now.  If they made the Elite 8, most of the country would still be surprised

2/8/09
1
WhoDey wrote:

VMI is dangerous.  I learned the hard way as a UK fan.  They shoot, shoot, shoot, and score, score, score.

They don't miss 3's.

I agree - the Keydets had got themselves an awesome team on the court this year - even with their conference, I expect them to win at least 2 in the Madness...

2/8/09
0
THE_Smoot wrote:
Well, Loyola held Curry scoreless, yet Davidson beat them badly. Loyola is no Oklahoma or Connecticut though.
Loyola tripled teamed Curry the entire game, thus 2 people were open every play.  As a result, Davidson blew out Loyola.  This game was early in the season, and since this game no team tripled team Curry the entire game.  In most games, teams just double team him. 

Also, I think you missed my point.  I never said Curry was a great player.  I said that Davidson is not as good as a team this year as they were last year for two main reasons.  First, they lost 3 starters from last year.  Second, one of those starters was the PG.  As a result, Curry has to play PG at times, thus preventing Davidson from running set plays to get him open.

2/8/09
0
Bracket time

 
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