The NFL season opener is only a few days away and that can mean only one thing: it’s time to start betting again. Yesterday day we went over our thoughts on the NFC Division winners, so now let’s take a look at AFC.
Just a quick tip: remember that when you are betting sometimes you have to choose based on price as opposed to the most likely outcome. Just because Greenbay will most likely win their Division, doesn’t mean betting them at -300 is a good idea. A better idea would be to bet the Bears, who have a shot a winning the division and are getting great odds at +500.
The AFC East is a mess. The Jet’s can’t score a preseason touchdown, the Bills are headed for an 8-8 season and the Dolphins can’t keep a receiver for more than a week. The Patriots could have a horrible season and still win this division. The odds should be higher than -400, but that would just scare off bettors.
The AFC North is a bit tougher division to decide on. The Bengals have real value at +400, but in all honestly this division belongs to the Steelers or Raven’s. Baltimore was a batted ball away from the Super Bowl and should come into the season hungry and ready to make another run.
The Texans are the biggest favorite to win their division in the entire NFL. The odds-makers must have lost their minds. -550 is too high of a number to bet on. The Texans will probably win the division but any injury could destroy their whole season. The Titans have a real shot at going 8-8 or 9-7 and one injury to the Texans could easily allow them to steal the division crown. This situation is completely different than in the AFC East where Tom Brady could get hurt and the Pats would still probably win their division.
Pick: Texans (but Do NOT bet it)
The AFC West was mediocre last season with the Broncos winning the division with an 8-8 record. It seems like the Charger’s should win the division but they are a team that you just shouldn’t bet on. San Diego never comes though when it matters and seems to sleep walk through large stretches of the season. The Broncos are not a bad bet at +175, but can you really bet on Peyton Manning to stay healthily all season? As crazy as it sound, the Raiders are getting excellent value at +600. Anything can happen in the AFC West so why not take a stab at Oakland winning the division?