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11/6/08
NFL Mid-Season Predictions: The AFC. Titans Will Prevail.
Perhaps The AFC Is No Longer The Power Conference?
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We are halfway through another NFL season, and as always, you have no idea what will happen next.  Of course, many are still trying to figure out how this year has gone the way it has so far, and no one has a good answer.  This year has shown perhaps more parity then ever before.  And unlike most years, there isn't that one team that EVERYONE is afraid of. 

Sure, you have the Giants and Titans, who right now are easily the two top teams.  But there is still plenty of season left.  Will the Giants and Titans will stay strong?  Will another team join them at the top?  How will each division turn out? 

Well let us take a look at the playoff picture halfway home. Up now is the AFC:

AFC South


Each year, there is usually one division that is pretty well wrapped up by the midway point.  However, I doubt ANYONE had the AFC South as that division.  Last year, this was arguably the best division in football, and this year was expected to be much the same.

But the Titans have a FOUR game lead over the next team.  At 8-0, the Titans look to be the best team in football, with a punishing defense. At looking at their schedule, four losses seems unlikely.  And with the rest of the division as is, I think it's safe to say this division is out of reach.

But what about the rest of this division?  The Colts are 4-4, no longer the dominant force.  They've been absurdly inconsistent and have had many injury issues.  They have tough road games remaining, but if they finally get healthy, this team certainly has a wild card shot.  But they'll probably need to finish 6-2 to get in, and that's a very tough task.  But if the Colts can get healthy, I believe they still can be dangerous.

What about the Jaguars?  Many people had them as their darlings, but they just lost to the Bengals.  THE BENGALS!!  Granted, at 3-5, anything can still happen.  But they have a tougher path then the others, as the Lions is the only lock.  The dominant running game has been lackluster, and the defense average.  10 wins is likely the needed number for the playoffs, and I'd be shocked if they go 7-1 to end it. 

As for Houston, I do think this team will be a threat in a year or two.  But this team just isn't talented enough in my opinion.  I think they can pull off 2, maybe 3 wins.  Watch out for this defense in the future though.

Division Winner Pick: Titans

AFC West


Right now, this is perhaps, the worst division in football.  Obviously, the NFC West makes a great case for awfulness as well.  But the fact that the Raiders are only TWO games back in this division is just laughable.

Ironically, this division could be an interesting deal different.  If it wasn't for Ed Hocuili's blown call, San Diego would be the 4-4 leader and the Broncos would be at 3-5.  Granted, both teams still have plenty of chances to win this division.  They play again the final week of the season in San Diego. 

Now both of these teams have good offenses, but sorry defenses.  Schedule becomes the key.  Denver has at Cleveland, at Atlanta, Oakland, at the Jets, and the Chiefs.  Seems like 3 or 4 wins.  Then at the Panthers, and the Bills, seems like 1-1.  So it seems like Denver could be 8-7 heading to San Diego.

Now what about San Diego?  They face Kansas City at home, a win.  Then at Pittsburgh and against Indy.  That's a 1-1 at best, perhaps a 0-2.  Atlanta and Oakland, then at KC and at Tampa.  To me, that looks like 5 wins in a good scenario for the Chargers.  But more likely 4.

Which means that the week 17 matchup will likely determine the division winner.  And I can't forsee this division winner with a record better than 9-7.  But both of these teams are so absurdly inconsistent, so who knows how this turns out. 

As for Oakland, despite being 2 games back, we must remember they are the absurdly dysfunctional Raiders.  Plus they have a brutal schedule, home games against KC and Houston seem like the only winnable games.  This team wins 5 at most.  Kansas City's schedule isn't much better, but they have the Bengals.  This is a 3 win team AT MOST, and will be a top 5 picker in the Draft.

Division Winner Pick:
I think if the last game determines it, San Diego will win at home.  But I think the bad call (and Norv Turner) will ultimately cost the Chargers.  Broncos win it.

AFC North

Once again, there are two teams in this division making an impact.  As always it seems, you have the Steelers, leading at 6-2.  Then you have the Ravens, right behind them at 5-3.  At 3-5, the Browns aren't done from the wild card hunt, but have a LONG way to go to have a remote shot at the division title.  And then there is that other team in that division who just flat out stinks. 

Pittsburgh really seems to be much more talented then the Ravens.  Both have very good defenses, the Steelers slightly better.  However, the Steelers have an above average offense, and the Ravens offense is less than stellar.  But the Steelers biggest issue is a tough schedule.  Indy and San Diego are back to back, but at least a home.  Cincy is a win, but at New England, Dallas, at Baltimore, at Tennessee, and Cleveland end it.

Obviously, not an easy road for the Steelers.  But while the Steelers only have one NFC East team left to play (Dallas), the Ravens still have to play ALL FOUR.  Honestly, I think winning one of those four will be tough for Baltimore.  Plus, they still play the Steelers again, and the Jaguars, along with Houston and Cincy.  Not to mention, the Ravens haven't really beaten anyone of consquence.  The toughest win was probably Miami.

I think the Ravens would be VERY fortunate if they went 4-4 in that stretch, and I ultimately see 2 or 3 wins there.  Pittsburgh may only win 4 or 5 late, but 10-6 or 11-5 wins the division.   Baltimore's crappy offense and tough schedule will be their downfall.  I think they finish 8-8, not likely enough for a wild card. 

As for Cleveland, they may be the ugliest 3-5 team in the history of football, and they have a brutal end of the season.  This team will be a 6 game winner at best.  And the Bengals...boy they suck.  They'll win one more, and maybe get a fluke in there, 3-13 is their best.

Division Winner Pick
: Steelers

AFC East


Once again, at the beginning of the season, if you would've asked, "Which division will be the most lopsided?" the AFC East would've likely been your choice.  I mean, Buffalo, Miami and the Jets really aren't that great, and New England will roll over everyone like usual.  Right?

But you must remember, this is the NFL
.  Granted, the Tom Brady injury changed a lot, but either way, did anyone else see the whole division at or above .500?  The Patriots, Jets, and Bills are in a three-way tie at 5-3, and then the Dolphins are 4-4.

Wait, what??? 
And the funny thing is, NONE of these teams really look that impressive.  NONE of these teams scares ANYONE.  Yet, all of them are right there for playoff spots.  I still think New England is the most talented of these teams, and they have the experience that the other young teams don't.  But this week's Buffalo at New England game could very well set the pace.

The Patriots certainly have their chance to break away the next 3 weeks.  Beat Buffalo, beat the Jets, and go to Miami and win, and you're in pretty good shape.  Then, even though both are on the road, can you really see New England losing to Seattle or Oakland?  They also have the Bills again at the end, as well as the Cardinals and the Steelers.

Buffalo has had that chance to break away that New England is about to have.  And so far, they have fallen flat on their face.  They've lost to Miami and the Jets, and then have New England this week.  But they catch a break, the next 3 games after are Cleveland, Kansas City, and the 49ers.  Win, win, and win.  But then they have to go through the division again, and the Broncos to end.  The Bills certainly can almost control their own fate, but I don't think they are talented enough to do win the division.

What about the Fightin' Favres?  St. Louis seems winnable, but at New England, at Tenneseee and Denver?  San Fran and Seattle could be rebounds, but they have to travel for both.  Then you have Miami and Buffalo again.  I think this team cracks.

Then you have the Dolphins, who need to make up a game.  They certainly can the next two games, facing the Seahawks and Raiders at home.  Then, they get a THIRD straight home game, against New England, which is a must win for the division race.  Win that, then you get at St. Louis, at Buffalo, the 49ers, at KC, and at the Jets.  4 out of the final 5 on the road.  That's just brutal, and that costs them the division.

Division Winner Pick
: Ultimately, the Patriots win the AFC East as usual,

What about the Wild Cards???

This could be a lot of fun.  The whole AFC East, Baltimore and Indy are the front runners.  At two games back, the Jaguars, Browns, and Texans aren't done.  But I'd be surprised any of them finish above .500.  Then you have the Denver/San Diego drama.  I have the Broncos winning it, which puts the Chargers with the other teams back two.  I'd say San Diego could go 9-7, but if they did that, they'll win the division.  I think they fall short of the wild card at 8-8.

As mentioned earlier, I think Baltimore fades very fast, and that leaves 4.  The Colts, and the other AFC East teams.  I don't think the Jets are really that good, and with a harsh schedule, they will win 7, 8 at best.  So they're done.

Looking at Buffalo, I don't really buy them as being more than average.  But they have some winnable ones in the middle, I think they can get 10 at most, but I forsee 9-7.

Indy and Miami start down a game, making their paths tougher.  Before the 4 out of 5 on the road to end, I think the Dolphins will get to 6-5.  But that rough patch at the end gets them to .500 at best.

The Colts have the benefit of 3 very easy home games which should be wins.  Detroit, Houston and Cincy should all be wins.  Then they should beat the Browns in Cleveland.  But at Pittsburgh, at San Diego, and at Jacksonville are tough.  I think heading into week 17, they will be 9-6 or 8-7.  And I think the Titans, who should have the one seed wrapped up, will rest starters, giving the Colts a spot.  Although as inconsistent as the Colts have been, they might find a way to choke away one of their winnable games.  I don't think Tony Dungy will let that happen.

Wild Card: Buffalo and Indianapolis

So here's my AFC Playoff picture.

1, Titans (14-2)
2, Steelers (11-5)
3, Patriots (11-5)
4, Broncos (9-7)
5, Colts (10-6)
6, Bills (9-7)

Obviously, the NFL makes fools out of us all, so who knows how this will actually turn out.  Although the days of the AFC being the power conference may be over.  That group of 6 isn't the most impressive. 

But as the Giants and Steelers have proven, all you need to do is get the playoff spot to have a chance.

What do you forsee in the AFC?
6 comments
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242 days ago
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Did it really take u this long this season to realize that the AFC was not a power conference?  I figured that out about the time tom brady hurt his knee.  Besides this conference has been the pats and the rest of the conference for yars now...reasons...Bill Bellecheck and Tom Brady.  Pretty simple.  And i'm not even a pats fan.
 
242 days ago
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It is crazy... the teams with the biggest leads in their division this year are the Titans and the Cardinals. What a crazy world we live in... but I think I like it.
 
242 days ago
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The power sways back and forth. The NFC will have it for a while and then it sways back to The AFC. REALLY, There are NO clear cut favorites to do anything. Yes the record says one thing but when the playoffs start is where teams separate themselves from the pack. REMEMBER how promising The Dallas Cowboys were going into the playoffs last year? They were picked to win The Superbowl and got knockedout by The Giants. New England share the same fate also whereas The Giants wasn't suppose to make it past The Wildcard. So everywhere you look its still anybody's game to take.
 
242 days ago
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dumpire5153 wrote:
Did it really take u this long this season to realize that the AFC was not a power conference?  I figured that out about the time tom brady hurt his knee.  Besides this conference has been the pats and the rest of the conference for yars now...reasons...Bill Bellecheck and Tom Brady.  Pretty simple.  And i'm not even a pats fan.
Nice summation of the Patriots and Brady and so goes the AFC Pat. That's what I was thinking back in September when all was said and done after week one.   www.faniq.com/blog/What-No-more-Tom-Brady-The-AFC-is-upended-Blog-11684 But I wouldn't take the AFC off of it's pedestal just yet.....................Yes the Patriots aren't the same without Brady. Because of that, I think the AFC has leveled off................................I haven't figured out the Titans yet though!  LOL!


Great post Jordan!

 
242 days ago
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The difference in the titans at this point is one thing...Jeff Fisher.
 
241 days ago
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More excellent stuff...

Hadn't realized Oakland is only two back.  That is just absurd.
Houston is indeed on their way.  But not this year, probably.
And indeed, the Ed Hocuili game is having a big impact even now.
Good insight on Baltimore.
I'd be ready to crown Tennessee the cream of the crop if they had a more exciting offense (a quarterback long since washed up and a couple second-tier running backs).  But they sure look good.

I like Buffalo to rebound later in the season... and I'm surprised you get on the Dolphins for having so many road games... when most are well winnable.

So I'll go:
1 - Steelers
2 - Titans
3 - Chargers
4 - Bills
5 - Dolphins
6 - Colts

But we'll see!
 
 
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