With los Dolphines (all that Spanish heritage stuff is wearing off on me) delivering the mild upset last night (or major, if you are a Jet fan, so cancel the February hotel reservation in South Beach now) the NFL is 5 weeks old. Like most 5 week olds, there are some basic observations that one can make, but so much can change over time, as the season grows up and matures right before our eyes. Teams still have 69% or 75% of their games left. First and foremost, allow me to bash the Broncos. They will not make it to Miami. They are nothing more than this year's version of the Tennessee Titans. This does not mean I think they are a bad team, and they will win the AFC West, maybe even post a 12-4 record. 5-0 is an achievement, and they beat the Patriots after all. However, come playoff time, they will be face to face with the obvious...Kyle Orton will not win playoff games for you. Armed with a defense playing very good, and a solid running attack (with a rookie like the Titans last year) Orton has not had to do much. Think Joe Flacco last year, or Ben Roethlisberger in his rookie year. Granted, Orton is not a rookie, but mark my words, an opponent they will play come playoff time will stuff Moreno and Bucky, and force them to throw to win, and not to Brandon Marshall, who will be doubled all day. I know this is crystal ball stuff, but I've seen it so many times, where teams fly out of the gates, but my gut is telling me, wait, this team is not that good--or a better way to phrase it is that the team is good, but not great.
The biggest problem thus far in the league is that the bad teams, they suck. Oakland and St. Louis are absolute train wrecks. Those plowing into that tragic accident are the Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills and KC Chiefs. Those too busy gawking at the trainwreck and not playing football include Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Detroit, and Carolina. Then we have one team just steaming ahead towards the wreckage, armed with 2 wins and a head full of delusions, the Washington Redskins, who I believe are arguably playing the worst football of any team in the league. Dan Snyder, all the money in the world does not make you a football genius. I wonder if Snyder and Jerry Jones stay up late at night chatting and weeping.
We have the other surprise team, the Cincy Bengals, who should not be a surprise if you paid attention at the end of last season. The Bengals were in the running for #1, as in draft picks, before a strong finish to the season. This year, Carson Palmer is back, and their defense looks stout, or at least stout enough to go 4-1, picking up where it left off at the end of last year.
While it is nice to see teams rebound, and come out of nowhere, I do not see the Bengals going far either. Yes, I am a Steeler fan, but I think I can be objective enough to know that the Steelers should not have lost to them. Limas Sweed is now in a position where all he can catch is a cold, and I doubt we'll see him on the field again this season. Still, it's the Bengals who sit atop the AFC North, and are 3-0 in the division, a key stat that could cost Baltimore or Pittsburgh come playoff time. It's very likely one will miss the playoffs. The AFC North has a very soft schedule, so the division games become huge for all of them and so far, it's the Bengals who have shined.
The Bengals however, are the Bengals, proven by the drafting of Andre "All I Can Eat Buffet" Smith. They came within 3 seconds of their second straight year with a tie, against the Browns--and depending on what replay you watch, should be 3-1-1. Not to mention the terrible pass interference call on the game winning drive against the Ravens. Can they be consistent, all year? Will they rebound when faced with the adversity of a loss or two? Seeing Ochocinco at the Miami game with Marc Anthony is the kind of stuff I am talking about. It's akin to seeing Big Ben and his line on Monday Night Raw...it's football season, live, eat, and drink it. I am sure Ben & his mates could have spent the day off watching film instead of goofing around with the WWE. It's just about focus.
The real surprises for me so far...the Ravens offense putting up points, and their defense allowing them. Is the loss of a few guys and Rex Ryan really that big a deal? Apparently yes. The Broncos defense has been shut down, without glitz or glam, and the signing of Brian Dawkins looks like the best move of the summer. The Patriots offense misfiring. The defense was a big question mark for me, you don't just replace the kind of leadership and intangibles that guys like Brushi, Vrabel, Harrison and Seymour bring, and it shows. But Tom Brady and the offense not putting up points? The Giants showed the recipe for shutting down the spread offense. Teams with the right bodies can duplicate it, as we saw with the Jets. If New England switches it up and goes 2 TE and runs, they just don't have backs to play that way. Maybe the most shocking, Brady looks gun shy. If he has even 1% of doubt, it is enough to make him mortal, and so far, the happy feet and his reaction to being grazed on his leg tell me that he wants to enjoy life after football more than play football. And can you blame him? He's accomplished so much, is seen as one of the all-time greats, and has a nice life right now with babies and the wife. Who wants to be in pain every day and walk with a cane?
A little bit less of a surprise is that the Indy D, without Bob Sanders, has played well enough to preserve the games and be 5-0. The Steelers D, becoming so inept at the most crucial times in the game is another one. However, the injury to Polamalu and his return this week or after the bye should end that. Tyrone Carter is not #43 and when you design so much around Polamalu's athletic ability and nose for the football, you take a huge step backwards when it comes to what schemes you can run, and run effectively. The few minutes the man played against Tennessee only prove my point to what kind of player he has developed into. The scary thing is, he is only going to get better.
What is going to likely happen down the road? Who knows..injuries and crazy bounces, bad calls and weather, all can play a roll in what happens on the field. My thought though is when we play the AFC & NFC Championship games, the familiar faces will be there. In the NFC, you will not see any Arizona Cardinal-like runs. It will come down to 3, the Vikings, Giants and Eagles. Each team has great defense, and great offensive balance. I do not see how anyone will sneak in past these 3. In the AFC, it is a little more difficult, but look for more familiar faces, Colts, Steelers and Patriots.
Will it be the Manning Bowl, the PA Bowl or the Farve Bowl? 5 weeks down, 12 to go. A lot is going to happen between now and then, but the upstarts beware. To win in the NFL you need to have it all of these in place:
- A great defense, that stops the run first and can shut down the pass, whether through coverage or blitzes or both.
- A Defense that generates turnovers.
- A balanced offense, that can throw first or run first and does not need one to set up the other.
- A solid QB that does not make mistakes.
- Solid special teams.
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