NFL team want Greatness? Hit Back-to-Back Draft HRs

10/30/13 in NFL   |   fvittorini   |   8 respect

Contending for a Super Bowl is a lot simpler than most people think. It does not have be a goal that takes about 8-10 years and requires that “elite” quarterback. There is a better way to build a great team, fast…in about 4 years. A team that will win you about 11 games, get you to the playoffs, and give you a realistic shot at winning that chip. The formula is putting together great back-to-back drafts, selecting 5-7 players, who become above average starters in 3 to 4 years.
Might sound ideal, but it's not; it's actually very attainable, simple, and teams have done it (look below). The thought is - you want to pick as many good players in the shortest time span, so that in 3 to 4 years they will all develop chemistry together, hit their primes together, and ball out on the same field together. So many GMs have struck out in the draft in 2010 and 2011, and that is why their teams are struggling (suck) today. And some GMs will pick 2 good players in 2008 and then 3 in 2012, but those guys never play and prime out together. The league is too unpredictable. You need to stack up, fast!
By completing the formula above, you will create a team where your 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th best starters are better than your opponent’s 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th best starters … and you will WIN MORE GAMES.

Why 5 to 7 players, and not 3 or 10?
3 eventual above average starters are not enough to make a real difference on a football field featuring 22 players. Now although 10 is better, it never quite works out b/c selecting 10 requires 3 drafts, and between injuries, contracts, heads getting too big ext… Yr 1 drafted guys don’t always get a chance to ball out with Yr3 drafted guys.
Now obviously you need a good GM and player evaluator (not talent evaluator), but I am not getting too much into that criteria… basically you want to pick players who have chips on their shoulders, are fearless, and have the college stats to back their perceived value.
Building a great team is not about putting all your eggs in one basket with a perfect prospect or that elite quarterback, and then magically hoping he carries you to the Super Bowl. That is unrealistic and the NFL is a team game. There is a reason Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have less combined Super Bowls than Terry Bradshaw, and individually as many as Trent Dilfer. Not to mention Joe Flacco won the Super Bowl last year, after doning the leagues 24th ranked QBR.
Sure an elite quarterback like Peyton Manning is a big difference, and makes players on offense better, but Peyton doesn’t help a guy like third year safety Rahim Moore get 40 tackles and 2 INTs in 8 games, or Eric Decker out smarting a DB on a double move.
In Football you have 22 total battles going on at the same time amongst 44 players, and as a GM you need to make sure you select the most amount of players, who individually win more battles than your opponents. The more individual battles you win, the better chance you have to win. If you win 60% of your battles and your opponent wins 40%, you will win. Sure having Peyton might sway that 5-8%, but how many Peyton Mannings do we have?
In order to maximize your ability to get the most players to win the most battles, you need to make sure you get the most above average starters, playing together.
You need that above average RT, who successfully out-blocks an average DE, opening up a lane for your above average RB to get 30+ yards. You need your above average DE, to get that pressure on a QB forcing a bad throw to your above average CB etc…
The more of these above average players you put on your team, the more things that will go your way throughout the course of a game, and the more games you will win.
Check out the best teams in the league today & their 2010 & 2011 drafts…
(6-2) Bengals
2011 drafted: 1st AJ Green, 2nd Andy Dalton, 4th Clint Boling.
2010 drafted: 1st Jermaine Gresham, 2nd Carlos Dunlap, 4th Geno Atkins.
6 above average starters

(7-1 ) Broncos
2011 drafted: 1st Von Miller, 2nd Rahim Moore, 2nd Orlando Franklin, 4th Julius Thomas.
2010 drafted: 1st Demaryius Thomas, 2nd Zane Beadles, 3rd Eric Decker.
7 above average starters
Oct 13, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman (25) and Seattle Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor (31) celebrate following an interception by Sherman against the Tennessee Titans during the fourth quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports(7-1) Seahawks
2011 drafted: 4th KJ Wright, 5th Richard Sherman, 7th Doug Baldwin.
2010 drafted: 1st Earl Thomas, 2nd Golden Tate, 3rd Kam Chancellor.
5 above average | 1 average starters
(6-2) 49ers
2011 drafted: 1st Aldon Smith, 2nd Colin Kaepernick, 3rd Chris Culliver, 4th Kendall Hunter, 7th Bruce Miller.
2010 drafted: 1st Anthony Davis, 1st Mike Lupati, 3rd Navarro Bowman, 6th Anthony Dixon, 6th Kyle Williams.
7 above average starters

(6-2) Patriots
2011 drafted: 1st Nate Solder, 2nd Shane Vereen, 3rd Stevan Ridley.
2010 drafted: 1st Devin McCourty, 2nd Rob Gronkowski, 2nd Brandon Spikes, 4th Aaron Hernendez (?), 5th Zolten Mesko.
6 above average | 1 average starters
As you can see the best teams today picked 5 to 7 guys in 2010 and 2011 that eventually became above average starters in 2013. Again you need that 3 to 4 year window for these guys to fully develop and hit their prime.
Now look at today’s worst 2010 and 2011 drafts…
(0-8) Jaguars
2011 draft: 1st Blaine Gabbert, 3rd Will Rackley, 4th Cecil Shorts, 4th Chris Prosinski, 5th Rod Issac.
2010 draft: 1st Tyson Alualu, 3rd D'Anthony Smith, 5th Larry Hart, 5th Austen Lane, 6th Deji Karim, 6th Scotty McGee.
1 average | 2 below average starters
(1-7) Vikings
2011 draft: 1st Christian Ponder, 2nd Kyle Rudolph, 4th Christian Ballard, 6th DeMarcus Love, 7th Mistral Raymond, 6th Brandon Fusco, 6th Ross Homan, 7th D’Aundre Reed, 7th Stephen Burton.
2010 draft: 2nd Chris Cook, 2nd Toby Gerhart, 4th Everson Griffin, 5th Chris DeGeare, 5th Nathan Triplett, 6th Joe Webb, 7th Mickey Shuler Jr., 7th Ryan D’Imperio.
1 above average | 2 below average starters
(0-8) Buccaneers
2011 draft: 1st Adrian Clayborn, 2nd Da’Quan Bowers, 3rd Mason Foster, 4th Luke Stocker, 5th Ahmad Black, 6th Allen Bradford, 7th Anthony Gaitor.
2010 draft: 1st Gerald McCoy, 2nd Brian Price, 3rd Arrelious Benn, 3rd Myron Lewis, 4th Mike Williams, 6th Brent Bowden, 7th Cody Grimm, 7th Dekoda Watson, 7th Erik Lorig.
1 above average | 2 average | 1 below average starters
SHOCKER -the worst teams picked the lowest amount of above average starters from 2010-2011, while the best picked 5 to 7. That is the real difference.
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