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7/30/08
NL Central Improvement This Year Is Impressive
More Miraculous Than NutriSystem: The NL Central
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The Chicago Cubs lead the NL in runs scored per game (5.24) and are on pace to win 95 games.

The Milwaukee Brewers, who two years ago had the worst ERA in their division, are now anchored by The Artist Formerly Known As “C.C.” Sabathia and Ben Sheets. They too are on pace to eclipse 90 wins.

The St. Louis Cardinals were supposed to be an ‘08 NL Central doormat, descending from 83 wins in their miraculous World Series-winning ’06 campaign to 78 last year. They find themselves in a playoff hunt on their way to what could be their best regular season since ’05.

There’s intrigue between these three teams. There’s competition and entertainment value. These things are not inherent of the modern National League Central Division, because eloquence aside, the modern National League Central Division sucks. It’s saturated with mid-market mediocre clubs (and one big-spending lovable loser -- ABOVE, EXHIBIT: A) and modest payrolls. Its winner is supposed to be on pace to win 85 games at this point, not 95. Its second and third place teams are supposed to crack .500 at their own peril. A year ago, nobody wanted to talk about these teams. So what happened?

To start, offenses have improved. In 2006, the NL Central boasted four of the five lowest scoring teams in the league, two of whom were the Cubs and Brewers. Fast-forward to ’08 and we find the Cubs, Brewers, and Cards in the top seven of that category. Pitching has been upgraded, as well. Last season, the Central’s cumulative ERA was approximately 4.61. This season, it’s approximately 4.42. A difference of .2 runs may not seem noteworthy, but multiply .2 by a 162 game season and the product is around 32 runs. Surrendering 32 fewer runs in a season could be mean the difference between postseason and offseason.

This is why the average win total in this division should end up somewhere around 83 at season’s end, a marked improvement from the previous two years, which averaged 76. Much of this may be due to the fact that between Chicago, Milwaukee, and St. Louis, over $35 million (not counting Harden and Sabathia) in player salaries were added to docket. However, is money at the core of the issue? Have these teams improved this substantially because of additions or have they improved because of the progression of homegrown talent (players like Braun, Soto, etc.). Where do they go from here? Can the division sustain this level of competitiveness through September? What about the lower tier teams -- the Reds, 'Stros, and Bucs? How do they enter the conversation down the road? Discuss.
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7/30/08
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I'll say this from the Cincinnati perspective: the way the Reds improve is by selling the team to me and five of my closest 'Nati boys so we can actually hire personnel who have heads that reside on their shoulders and not up their asses hind ends.  Seriously, I am sick and tired of watching every prospect's natural talent be mutilated by a coach who has no clue what he's doing.  The golden example is that of His Holiness Homer Bailey, the man who was supposed to be the next Nolan Ryan and single-handedly save the franchise.  He was having a few control problems -- something not all that uncommon for a 20 year-old who throws 97 -- so what does Dick Pole and Co. do?  Completely change his arm delivery.  He tops at around 94, now, and has lost nearly every shred of confidence he once had.  I'll root for Dusty Baker, but I worry that he and his crew will do absolutely nothing to help Volquez, Cueto, Darryl Thompson, etc. adapt to the major league game.  I mean, my word, the amount of raw talent Cincy has in their rotation is enough to put practically every team in baseball to shame.  And yet I think somehow, someway, all of it will be wasted.

 
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