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8/5/07
Nascar Predictions: Heading to the Poconos for the Pennsylvania 500
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This weekend the Nextel Cup Series heads back to the Pocono's for the Pennsylvania 500.  Held on the unique 2.5 mile Pocono raceway, the Pennsylvania 500 is the second race run at this track in the past 2 months. 


In June, Jeff Gordon ended Denny Hamlin's one year dominance at the Pocono's by taking the checkered flag ahead of Ryan Newman, Martin Truex, Casey Mears and Tony Stewart.  The Pocono raceway is a tri-oval with three turns, each with a different banking, and 3 straights, each with a different length.  This combination produces fender to fender action in the turns, 200mph slingshots on the long straights and photo finish endings.  When it comes to racing at Pocono, the cars require a unique set-up that will match the unique characteristics of the track.  With each corner being different, setting up a car requires a setup that is not perfect for each corner but is the best middle ground.  A good handling car is very important thru the corners and horsepower is essential heading into the straightaways.  Drivers have to be smart enough to let drivers go so patience will be a virtue.  Pit strategy and pit crew success in gaining drivers spots off pit road will be huge as the race draws closer to the end.  This race will be won by the driver who has great patience, one of the best handling cars and a pit crew that is consistently good on pit stops. 

 

 

 

When it comes to choosing drivers for Pocono, the first guy you have to look at is Denny Hamlin.  He swept both races last year as a rookie and he led the most laps this year before finishing 7th.  He would have to be considered the favorite as he not only has 2 wins out of three races, but he's also won the pole twice.  Hamlins teammate, Tony Stewart, has regained some of his old form by winning the past two races in the series.  He has a good record at Pocono, with one win and 6 top 10's in the past 10 races.  Jeff Gordon would be considered the other favorite at this track.  Not only did he win the spring race, but he's also finished in the top 10 in 18 out of the 20 races this season.  Its that consistency that has led to Gordon being the best bet for Group A success in yahoo fantasy nascar.

 

Others to Watch

 

Jimmie Johnson - without his crew chief, he's recorded two straight DNF's that has dropped him from 3rd in points to 7th.  Pocono is not one of his best tracks but he needs a good finish to right the ship

 

Mark Martin - He placed seventh at Pocono earlier this year and has four Top 10's in his last six starts there with no results worse than 19th in that time. He never has won here, but has taken three poles and placed in the Top 5 an amazing 19 times in 43 attempts. 

 

Kurt Busch- After struggling mightily for the first half of the season, Busch has rebounded with strong efforts in his last three races. He placed third at Daytona, sixth at Chicagoland and 11th at Indianapolis. Busch has raced superbly at Pocono. He won in 2005 and placed second in both '06 races. He also owns the most Top 5s (5) in last five years

 

Ryan Newman - One of the better finishers at Pocono has notched a win, two poles and five Top 5's in 11 trips.  He's also an excellent qualifier, taking the pole in the spring and finishing 2nd at the race.

 

Martin Truex Jr - After placing third at New Hampshire, Truex has posted two respectable finishes of 13th and 12th in his last three races.  He finished third in June's race, giving him a Top 10 in two of three races at Pocono

 

J.J Yeley - Group C's best bet, has raced 3 times at Pocono with finishes of 15th, 12th and 16th.  He has Gibbs power under the hood and with Hamlin and Stewart having success at this track, it doenst surprise me that Yeley does as well

 

What the experts think

 

My Pick - Denny Hamlin - The obvious pick this week has won two of the three times he's jumped into a car at Pocono Raceway. Who am I to deny that kind of production? He'll be on my team this week for sure

 

Sleeper Pick - Carl Edwards - He has raced here just four times, coming away with two Top 5 finishes and a win in his first year here.  Roush cars have a good history here and Edwards has been looking more competitive as the 2007 season progresses

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