One More Reason
It was a good start to the week and a new month for me taking wins with the Rays and the Chiefs. That keeps another nice little string going of 6 wins out of my last 7 plays. Only time will tell, of course, but you know what the goal is: Keep it going! So, here's what we're looking at for a slow Monday.
THE NFL (7-6 yesterday)
SAINTS (-7) over Dolphins - A clash of unbeatens in the early going for MNF. I will be shocked if the Fins win this game, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them stay within this number. They bring a very good defense into Nawlins that's predicated on a strong pass rush to harass Brees with. That being said though, in every statistical breakdown I have for this game, I've got the Saints marching away with what looks like an easy cover. There won't be a play here though, and there's nothing to report on the TOTAL either even though if I had to go, I think I'd lean to the UNDER (48).
The only reason I'm opening this "portal" today is more for housekeeping and accounting than anything else. All I have to say about tonight's game between the Rays and Rangers is that because of the close nature of the wild card race that landed them both in this game, neither manager was able to "mold" his pitching staff into playoff form. The Rays go with Price, who won the Cy Young last year but was very hittable this season, and the Rangers go with Perez, who, at best, would be considered the Rangers #4. Should be a very interesting game, but I actually like the Rangers chances to advance.
There can be no denying that there were certainly bumps in the road over the last several months for me when it comes to baseball, but overall, it was another very successful campaign. I went 124-81 on my posted plays for the season, and that works out to a nice advance of The Empire. There's also a lot of other stuff to talk about too.
As I do just by posting every day, I brought new risk to my reputation this past baseball season by introducing the RUN-(NING) LINES category and posting on every game played after each team had reached the necessary database criteria. I've been tracking run lines, straight up winners and totals in baseball against my statistical data for the past 3 seasons, but this is the first season that I "stuck my neck out" with it. You saw the numbers as we went along for yourself, but the final tally for the entire season looks like this: ATS went 1143-1081. SU went 1085-1017. TOTALS went 1172-1052.
You can figure out the percentages for yourself, if you like, but they stand up strong against the figures that I had compiled over the 2 previous seasons with all of those 3 situations coming out between 52-53%. That's not bad. It's enough to win some dough if you just wanted to lay blindly, but I'm always looking for a new way to get the biggest edge possible. That's why I'm announcing now that I've come up with another way to track all the information with the run lines.
I will continue to follow each game using the same stats that I've used over the past 3 seasons, but next year, I'm going to track a little deeper. By that, I mean that I'm going to keep a record of how favorites do with covering versus how the dogs fare for each game. And not only that, but I'll also be monitoring each individual team to see how they fare when it comes to their situation for each game. So, whether a team is a road dog or favorite, or a home dog or favorite, I will have each team's record readily available as the season progresses.
I realize that monitoring each team's spread record is an entirely cyclical stat. What happens one season is not necessarily indicative of how thigs will go for that same team in the same situations over the next season, but I think we might be able to catch, or avoid, a play or two having this information. I mean, if there's a team out there next year that's played 40 home games, been favored in 30 of them, but has covered less than 10 times, I thnk that's something worth knowing about. And it would be even more important if that same team is hosting a club that's covered as a dog in 7 or 8 of it's last 10 on the road. See what I mean? Anything to get an edge. That's what it's all about, folks.
So at least I was able to make what should have been a relatively short posting into competition for "Atlas Shrugged". What I will tell you right now is that I will not be here tomorrow. I need to start getting serious about setting up my templates for the upcoming NBA season, and I have no interest at all in tomorrow night's N.L. wild card game. I may not be here Wednesday either, but you're just going to have to check on that if you're interested. It all depends on what happens with tonight's game in Arlington, and I can see where I might be able to squeeze out one more play for the season. We'll see.
Have a great evening!