Tight ends who are going too high on fantasy draft day
Note: All average draft positions (ADP) are according to Yahoo.
Jimmy Graham (NO): I have no problem with Graham as the first tight end off the board. I have no problem with him being drafted early. But his current ADP of 18.1 I just can't get on board with. I do expect improved numbers and a monster season out of Graham, but with the 18th pick in Yahoo leagues you can have guys like Brandon Marshall and Julio Jones - two of the most electrifying pass catchers in the game. I'm expecting something between the numbers from an injury-plagued 2012 and an outrageous 2011 from Graham, so yes, I like him as the first tight end taken. But the next tight end is being drafted more than 32 picks later, so you could rack up top-notch players at other positions and still get one of the league's best tight ends in the early/middle rounds. I don't think that the 18.1 ADP is terribly far off - I'd probably be happy to have Graham in the third round - but I wouldn't take him over someone like Brandon Marshall, who gave Calvin Johnson a run for his money in fantasy points last year.
Tony Gonzalez (ATL): I hate to put Gonzalez on this list because he is such a consistent professional, but an outlier 2012 season has catapulted his 2013 ADP to 50.9 - second among tight ends. Gonzalez's catches, yards, and touchdowns last year were all his best marks since 2008, and I would be surprised to see him replicate them in 2013, yet people still seem to be drafting as if Gonzalez is a lock to do it again. Now 37 years old, it's very tough to expect Gonzalez to repeat numbers that he hasn't come all that close to posting since he
was 32. Look at a guy like Jason Witten - he is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, has posted 94+ catches for 1,000+ yards in three of the past four seasons, and is only 31 years old, yet he is being drafted later than Gonzalez. Sure, Gonzalez has a shot at putting up similar numbers in 2013, but I wouldn't gamble a fifth/sixth-round pick on it.