It was 4 years ago when NASCAR decided to move Labor Day Weekend away from Darlington and send it westward to California.  That experiment has failed miserably, and thankfully the snoozefest that is Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, CA will not be hosting NASCAR's Labor Day festivities next year. But before the spotlight rides off into the sunset, leaving California and its lack of excitement behind, we've still got one last race here on Labor Day Weekend.  What will happen this weekend?  Will another bubble driver get knocked out of the Top 12?  Can one of the 5 Winless Chasers finally get back to victory lane?  Will a first-time winner emerge?  Here's the rundown on what to expect when the green flag flies Sunday evening...

First off, Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch will be looking to continue their recent dominance over everybody else, but this time they'll have to pass each other cleanly.  If they start beating and banging one another, or any other driver for that matter, NASCAR will give them more than the slap on the wrist they got after Bristol when they were both placed on probation for 6 weeks.  If you thought Shrub was whining after the Sharpie 500, just watch what happens if he messes around this week, NASCAR will give him something to cry about.  Regardless, look for both of these drivers to have solid runs again, as if you'd expect anything less from the 2 drivers who have combined to win MORE than half of the 24 races run so far in 2008.

How about those 5 Winless Chasers?  3 of them are former winners here.  Greg Biffle won the Spring race in 2005, and Matt Kenseth won the Spring race back-to-back the last 2 years.  Ruh-roh...another Roush streak starting?  With Edwards winning the first California race back in February of this year, that's 4 years in a row a Roushketeer has won in Fontana.  Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick have never won here, but don't count them out as they could win any day now, and the same goes for the #24 team.  Jeff Gordon won the first race in Fontana 11 years ago, and last won here in 2004, not to mention he has the most wins of any active driver in the series with 3.  Okay, I know that sounds like a low number, but NASCAR has only been racing at this track since 1997, so give me a break!

What about surprise winners?  We've had a couple at this track before.  The 2 drivers who won at California and have never been perennial threats were Jeremy Mayfield in 2000, and Elliott Sadler in 2004.  Sadler's win in 2004 clinched him a spot in the first Chase for the Cup.  If there's anyone who would be a nice surprise to see win among the current Chase contenders, that choice IMHO would have to be the #83 of Brian Vickers.  He's still on the outside looking in, but that Red Bull Toyota has been there all year long, fighting for that final spot in the Top 12.

How about first time winners?  We've seen that at California as well.  Jimmie Johnson captured his first victory right here back in 2002 as a rookie.  Kyle Busch also captured his first Cup Series victory in this very race back in 2005 as a rookie, becoming the youngest winner in the now 60-year history of NASCAR's top division.  What about a chance for a first time winner this weekend?  Well, the man who seems to be next in line for his first career victory is a man who continues to impress me every week, and just keeps getting better and better.  You might have heard of him, his name is David Ragan.  He's only 12 points out of the Chase, and he can certainly make it into the Top 12.  A win here would vault him back into the Chase, boost his confidence through the roof, and put 4 Roushketeers into the Chase for the Cup.  Last year's Cinderella story was Clint Bowyer, the man he's battling for that final Chase spot.  If Ragan makes it in, he'll be this year's Cinderella without a doubt.

What can we expect from the Chase bubble drivers?  I look for every single one of them to run as hard as they can.  They all know what's at stake, and will stop at nothing to keep their Chase hopes alive.  Jamie McMurray isn't going to make the Chase, and if your name is Martin Truex Jr., you better win the damn thing on Sunday and hope the next 5 guys in front of you in points finish outside the top 30 if you're going to have any hope of making the Chase.  That leaves us with 16 drivers in contention for the 12 Chase spots.

Before I reveal my pick for this week, it's time to whip out the calculators again as we look at some more number crunching.  I called Johnson and Earnhardt IN for the Chase after Bristol, because barring a major injury where a driver can't start, everyone in Chase contention will take the green flag on Sunday.  HOWEVER, the "official" magic number is 196.  You can have a maximum of 195 points in a race by winning and leading the most laps, so one point over that after the Pepsi 500 will earn you a spot in the Chase.  Sooo, even though I said they were both into the Chase, they're not 100% in just yet.  Here's the scenarios needed to clinch, compliments of Jayski...

-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Will clinch his spot in the Chase IF he finishes 40th or better OR finishes 41st or 42nd and leads at least one lap. (So in plain English, Jr. is in.)
-Jimmie Johnson: Will clinch his spot in the Chase IF he finishes 40th or better OR finishes 41st and leads a lap. (So all Jr. and Johnson have to do is finish 39th and 40th and they're in, although I look for them both to run much better than that.)
-Jeff Burton: Will clinch his spot in the Chase IF he finishes 15th or better, OR finishes16th or 17th and leads a lap, OR finishes 20th and leads the most laps. (used to be a piece of cake for Burton earlier this year)

The next 6 drivers can clinch a spot, but need to increase their lead over the 13th place driver...
-Tony Stewart: He's 170 points ahead of 13th going into this race.  He'll clinch his spot in the Chase if he can increase his lead over 13th by just 26 points. (very doable)
-Greg Biffle: The Biff sits 141 points ahead of 13th.  He can clinch his spot in the Chase if he increases his lead over 13th by another 55 points. (doable, but will take a bit of a falter by some drivers lower down in the standings)
-Kevin Harvick: Needs to increase his lead over 13th by another 67 points. (see Biffle above)
-Jeff Gordon: Needs to increase his lead over 13th by 88 points. (That would mean finishing at least 15 spots ahead of whoever ends the night 13th in the standings, and that's a bit of a stretch.)
-Matt Kenseth: Needs to increase his lead over 13th by a staggering 118 points. (That's not happening unless someone has a monumentally miserable night!)
-Denny Hamlin: Needs to increase his lead over 13th by a whopping 139 points. (Denny ain't clinchin' this week either.  The most you can make up in a race is 161.  For Denny to make the Chase, he'd need almost the entire field to finish between he and whoever is 13th at the end of the night.  I'm not joking about that either, he'd need to finish AT LEAST 35 positions higher than whoever winds up 13th when the checkered flag falls.  That's asking way too much.)

-Clint Bowyer: Can't clinch a spot in the Chase as long as David Ragan takes the green flag...so that means he's not clinching a spot in the Chase.

My Chase clincher prediction: At night's end, there will be 6 drivers into the Chase, and Martin Truex Jr. will be officially eliminated from Chase contention, possibly along with 1 other driver.  That will leave us 9 drivers to fight for 6 spots at Richmond.

Okay, yinz can all put your calculators away now, the number crunching is done...at least until the postrace wrap-up.  Without further adieu, here's who to watch on Sunday...

My pick: David Ragan...Yes, I realize this is a bold pick, but he nearly won at Michigan, which is a virtual twin to Fontana.  He'll run strong, and he'll be there at the end.  This will get him into the Chase, and give him even more confidence than he already has going into the Chase.  Ragan has finished 16th, 12th, and 14th in his 3 Fontana races, all lead lap finishes.  But now he's grabbing top 10s everywhere, and he led laps finishing 8th and 3rd in the 2 races this year at Michigan.  This could finally be the night for Ragan's breakthrough into victory lane.

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers...Vickers sat on the pole at Michigan and finished 7th a couple of weeks ago.  He finished 4th at Michigan after leading in June.  He came all the way from 39th to finish 11th here back in February.  Last year in the first Fontana race, he gave Toyota its first top-10 finish in the Cup Series.  He then backed that up by leading laps and finishing 8th here in this race last year.  In fact, he has 4 top-10s at California and has only finished off the lead lap twice.  He also knows how to qualify well here with 3 front row starts including a pole as a rookie back in 2004.  Now he has the car to stay up front when he qualifies there, and he's done just that.

The gloves are off, the battles are ready to unfold, and the fireworks on the track may be better than the fireworks in the sky after the race.  What will we see this weekend?  There's only one way to find out, coverage begins Sunday at 7 PM ET...NOW LET'S GO RACING!

BK over and out