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11/24/08
Picking On The Pollsters Week 13: Why Are People Still Snubbing Alabama?
The BCS Joins The List Of Pollsters To Be Picked On
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There are a few things about the rankings this week that seem obvious, at least to me. Undefeated Alabama needs to be #1. At this point, I don't think there's any getting around that. After that, there are a few more "tiers" of teams, where you can switch around the teams in that group, but there are lines that certain teams just shouldn't be above, and some teams should be below that line.

Tier 1: Alabama. Period. They are the only undefeated team remaining out of all BCS conference teams. They haven't all been pretty wins, but they have all been wins.

Tier 2: Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, in no particular order. Each have one loss, but also several high quality wins.

Tier 3: USC, Texas Tech, Penn State, Utah, Boise State. USC and Penn State make this list by virtue of their one loss, but relative lack of quality wins, due to a weak conference schedule. Texas Tech has some great wins over very good teams, but their blowout loss to Oklahoma drops them from Tier 1 last week all the way down to here. Utah and Boise State are undefeated, but they're the forgotten mid-majors, and also beneficiaries of weaker schedules.

While you can justify mixing and matching within those "tiers," it's hard to logically say that Penn State or Texas Tech deserve to be ranked ahead of Oklahoma, or that ANYONE should be ranked ahead of Alabama.

Somehow, though, we still have AP voters insisting on turning in completely inexplicable ballots. Here are a few of the worst offenders.

The 2 guys who voted Florida over Alabama: Scott Wolf and Jon Wilner. One of two things must have happened here. Either these gentlemen were both in a coma during Florida's loss to Ole Miss and they refuse to acknowledge the 1 under the L column next to Florida's name, or perhaps they are just that stupid. I understand that some people are predicting Florida to beat Alabama in the SEC Championship, and perhaps voting Florida over Alabama right now is their way of saying that. But after going 11-0, doesn't 'Bama deserve the respect of their #1 vote? Wilner also had Georgia at #7, ahead of Texas Tech (among others who are also more deserving). Apparently one loss against the team that Wilner now has at #4 is enough to drop Tech all the way down to #9, despite wins against Wilner's #2 (Texas), #8 (Oklahoma State). That just doesn't seem right at all... does it?

I understand Jim Lamar's attempt to stop punishing USC for their early loss to Oregon State, who has actually proven themselves to be a pretty good football team. I think a lot of people tend to unfairly hold the Trojans down a bit too much, and completely ignore the fact that Florida (for example) lost to a pretty average Ole Miss. But this week, Lamar has them at #3. Above Texas and Oklahoma, who each have at least one win over a team ranked higher than USC's best win (Ohio State), and they each lost to a top 10 team, which is something that USC can't say. There's no way USC can be ranked ahead of Oklahoma or Texas right now.

The 2 who felt that Texas Tech's loss to Oklahoma immediately made them a lousy team: Ok, so maybe not lousy, but Myron Patton and John Hunt immediately removed them from the top 10 altogether. Patton always has an interesting (aka idiotic) ballot, and this time, he offers up this gem at spots #10-12:
#10: Missouri
#11: Texas Tech
#12: Oklahoma State
I'm no rocket scientist, but I seem to remember some games between these teams. Missouri belongs behind Texas Tech and Oklahoma State by ANY system you might want to use, and there's no way Texas Tech belongs behind either of them, especially not Missouri. Patton also has Ohio State ahead of all 3 of them, which is another inexplicable move, since OSU has lost whenever they play a quality opponent.

Hunt's ballot not only had Texas Tech at #11 (directly behind Ok. State and Missouri), he also had Texas all the way down at #7, behind Big 10 frauds Penn State and Ohio State, neither of whom could compete in the Big 12 South this year. But seriously... Texas Tech at 11? That must be a joke.

Fortunately (or maybe unfortunately), the only thing that really matters at this point anyway are the BCS Rankings. Those are out as well, and here's what they look like at the top:

1. Alabama 11-0
2. Texas 10-1
3. Oklahoma 10-1
4. Florida 10-1
5. USC 9-1
6. Utah 12-0
7. Texas Tech 10-1
8. Penn State 11-1
9. Boise State 11-0
10. Ohio State 10-2

As far as the National Championship is concerned, the picture is really quite clear. Florida and Alabama will play in the SEC Championship on December 6. Assuming Alabama takes care of business against Auburn and Florida wins at Florida State, the SEC Champion is all but assured a spot in the title game.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Texas beats Texas A&M and Texas Tech beats Baylor, the Big 12 South will have a 3-way tie at the top. Oklahoma would likely get the nod by way of a higher BCS ranking, since they are barely trailing Texas, and a win over #12 Oklahoma State would give them the boost they need. If one of those teams were to lose, then the 2-way tie would be broken by the head to head matchup. In that case, Oklahoma would have the edge over Texas Tech, who would have the tie-breaker over Texas, who has the tie-breaker over Oklahoma in a crazy triangle of beatpaths. Unless the winner of the Big 12 North (Missouri) win the Big 12 championship game, the Big 12 South winner will advance to the National Championship game. If Missouri wins, then the next one-loss team in the Big 12 South would go to the NC game (likely Texas).

If all 3 teams Big 12 teams somehow manage to pick up a loss somewhere, and/or the SEC Champ ends up with 2 losses, then USC would probably get a shot, despite the fact that Oregon State could finish as Pac 10 champs.

It's another crazy year with the BCS, but these last few weeks really have been like a playoff.

If you have any issues with the voting, discuss them here... and enjoy the rest of the season!
30 comments
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11/24/08
2
I'm going to take offense to Penn State being in tier 3.  There is no way they aren't on equal footing with the Florida Gators.

Florida's best wins are over Georgia, LSU and  South Carolina.  The last two of those are a combined 14-8.  Not to mention that Georgia has been dangerously close to embarassing themselves the past two weeks.

Penn State has beaten Oregon State, Ohio State, and Michigan State, who are a combined 27-8 (compared to Florida's best 3 wins of 24-9.)  Also, Penn State's top road win is Ohio State.  Florida's is only over 6-5 Vanderbilt.  Right now, there's no reason to have Florida pegged above Penn State.

11/24/08
0
Why do you think Missouri lost to Texas Tech this season when they didn't even play eachother? Mizzou lost to Ok State and Texas but not Texas Tech.

I'm not saying past accomplishments matter but Mizzou pretty much owns Tech in the past few meetings between the teams. Tech does deserve a higher ranking then what the pollsters have given them because their only loss (trampling) came against a team that has been firing on every cylinder of their W16 Bugatti Veyron of an offense.

11/24/08
0
I never said Missouri lost to Tech. But I think that it's obvious that Tech should be ranked higher at this point.

11/24/08
0
Ok as you all know I am a huge OU homer but this is just something for anyone out there that thinks just because Texas beat OU it automatically moves them ahead of OU and ignoring the rest of the season.

Of all of the Big 12 South's big 4 (OU,Tech,Texas,OSU), not one of those four have beaten one of the other four in a true road game. If OU can go into Stillwater, which is a tough place to play for OU, and get a win in a true road game, I feel that it would be the trump card that should put OU over the top when comparing OU, Texas, and Texas Tech.

That said, I am hoping Florida St. beats Florida and then Florida beats Bama, while OU and Texas both win this week and one of them win the Big 12 title to set up a Red River Shootout on South Beach.

11/24/08
0
(Edited by Jubanator14)
"Apparently one loss against the team that Wilner now has at #4 is enough to drop Tech all the way down to #9, despite wins against Wilner's #2 (Texas), #8 (Oklahoma State) and #14 (Missouri)."
What's this sentence supposed to mean then? I'm not trying to give you s**t, just looking for some clarification.

11/24/08
0
UF vs Alabama (SEC champion)
UT, TT, or OU vs Mizziou (big 12 champion)
USC or Oregon State neither (Pac-10 champion)
Penn State won big ten title
ACC champion?
BCS mess for sure! ugly standing tottally oppose to AP standing.

11/24/08
1
(Edited by Heyhey1970)
I think the conference championship games will take care of much of this.  I cringed when reading that the two top teams in the Big Ten were "frauds," but that's true when you compare them to the Big 12 and SEC leaders this year.  I would just add that Penn State's only loss was to Iowa, and if anyone hasn't seen the Hawkeyes, I expect them to perform well in their Bowl Game.  This team has really improved.  I think Florida will end up winning the National Championship.

11/24/08
0
akecke wrote:
"Apparently one loss against the team that Wilner now has at #4 is enough to drop Tech all the way down to #9, despite wins against Wilner's #2 (Texas), #8 (Oklahoma State) and #14 (Missouri)."
What's this sentence supposed to mean then? I'm not trying to give you s**t, just looking for some clarification.
Basically, they only have one loss, and it's against the team that Wilner ranked #4. And they've also beaten the teams that Wilner ranked at #2, #8 and #14. But somehow that equates to a #11 ranking. It seems to me that based on their quality of wins should result in a higher ranking.

11/24/08
0
Pat wrote:
Basically, they only have one loss, and it's against the team that Wilner ranked #4. And they've also beaten the teams that Wilner ranked at #2, #8 and #14. But somehow that equates to a #11 ranking. It seems to me that based on their quality of wins should result in a higher ranking.
Tech didn't play Missouri though. They got K-State, Kansas, and Nebraska from the North.

11/24/08
0
Ah, yes. I knew that... not sure why I wrote that, actually... /fixed.

11/24/08
0
I still don't understand why the other NCAA divisions have playoffs, but the "FCS" (or whatever the heck they're called D1 now) doesn't !!!

Actually, I do know - the money that the bowls & TV throw at them.

And, as much as I'd like to see a playoff between the top 8 teams, let's face it -> we would have controversy with simply trying to select those 8 teams anyway !!     So, in essence, what's the difference with what we have now ???

The only true way to handle this would be to force all conferences to have season-ending championships.    Each conference would need to have rules/tie-brakers or structure (ie - 2 sub-conferences) to make sure that the 2 "best" teams played in that game.     Then the winners of those conferences would 'qualify' for the National Tournament, which would be a single-elimination.     The tricky thing would be though, what conferences would be involved ?     And, would it just be 8 conferences, or all of them, which might battle each other in earlier rounds before the champs of the Big 12, SEC, Big 10, Pac 10, etc. 'get involved' ?     And then, what about those darn independents ?    (yeah, you're right.....why get Notre Dame involved here at all ??    At least while Weis is still there.........)

I say that the NCAA takes the 8 conferences with the 'largest' schools in them, create their own division, and have each of those conferences have their tournaments, and the 8 winners will then play their own tournament.     The rankings could be used to determine seeding, and hence home fields.    The other 300+ teams would then be qualified to play in the traditional 'Bowl Games', and these games could still pick teams that would be common to the traditional rivalries (ex - Big 10 & Pac 10 runners-up play in the Rose Bowl, etc.)     And, with just 8 teams who qualify, it would be a simple 3-game, winner-take-all tournament.....so that they "student-athletes"  (cough......) wouldn't be missing too much school !!!

11/24/08
0
(Edited by jeopardytempest)
Pat, excellent synopsis... you have the teams in exactly the right groups as far as I'm concerned.

And all this jazz about playoffs... especially the ones that just upend all the conference setups and everything... why??  It's working out just fine and dandy this year.  As it basically does every year.  We want the best two teams playing... not Florida State or Cincinnati!

11/24/08
0
kantwistaye wrote:
I'm going to take offense to Penn State being in tier 3.  There is no way they aren't on equal footing with the Florida Gators.

Florida's best wins are over Georgia, LSU and  South Carolina.  The last two of those are a combined 14-8.  Not to mention that Georgia has been dangerously close to embarassing themselves the past two weeks.

Penn State has beaten Oregon State, Ohio State, and Michigan State, who are a combined 27-8 (compared to Florida's best 3 wins of 24-9.)  Also, Penn State's top road win is Ohio State.  Florida's is only over 6-5 Vanderbilt.  Right now, there's no reason to have Florida pegged above Penn State.
They (Florida) play FSU on the road next week, and then they'll have to beat Alabama. If they win out, they will have had a decisively harder schedule than Penn State. If they don't win out, then they drop out of the NC picture. So for now, having them above PSU really should be fine. Either they'll prove it to you in the next couple weeks, or they'll drop out.

11/24/08
0
Solving the mess? Lol I got a simple answer. Anybody want to hear it?

11/24/08
0
once again it's another year that just screams for a playoff.the bcs has got to go

11/24/08
0
But the whole regular season is a playoff!

/worst argument ever. BCS must die!

11/24/08
1
Pat wrote:
They (Florida) play FSU on the road next week, and then they'll have to beat Alabama. If they win out, they will have had a decisively harder schedule than Penn State. If they don't win out, then they drop out of the NC picture. So for now, having them above PSU really should be fine. Either they'll prove it to you in the next couple weeks, or they'll drop out.
It will work itself out, but until then they are equal, IMO.  It'll be fun to watch Bama's D shutdown Florida's supposedly "dynamic" offense.  Florida's D is doing all the work for the Gators, but the offense is getting all the credit.

11/24/08
1
If Bama beats Auburn and Florida they will be able to try and shut all the nay sayers up once and for all.  However in my humble opinion they won't get the chance because Gators will beat them first.

11/25/08
0
damn bcs stink how if missouri wins the big 12 but will get past by someone who idn;t win the confrerence crazy

11/25/08
1
The question is, how are you going to pick 8 teams this year?  Do you go with the conference champions of the major conferences plus a couple of wild cards?  Do you just pick the top 8 teams?  What poll chooses the top 8?

This year is a mess, because there are 4-5 teams that are national title contenders, and then a whole bunch of good but not quite great teams.

11/25/08
0

With the way this college football season has gone down and the flawed system of the BCS, I dont think anybody would be shocked to see 3 Big XII teams make the BCS


11/25/08
0
Scott wrote:

With the way this college football season has gone down and the flawed system of the BCS, I dont think anybody would be shocked to see 3 Big XII teams make the BCS

That would only work if Tech somehow got into the Big 12 Title game and loses to Missouri while Florida or Bama lose this weekend and then the one that lost wins the SEC title game which would put the one loss Sooners vs one loss Longhorns in the Title Game with Missouri going to the Fiesta Bowl.

Even though the rules say 2 teams from a conference.

11/26/08
0
Designated Hero wrote:
The question is, how are you going to pick 8 teams this year?  Do you go with the conference champions of the major conferences plus a couple of wild cards?  Do you just pick the top 8 teams?  What poll chooses the top 8?

This year is a mess, because there are 4-5 teams that are national title contenders, and then a whole bunch of good but not quite great teams.
Exactly

Glad someone is paying attention rather than knee-jerk reacting to any disharmony and automatically suggesting we need a playoff.



And guys there is absolutely no way three teams from the Big 12 get in.  The Big 12 will get the Championship Game winner and the south runner-up (Texas or Oklahoma) barring any absurd losses this weekend.  Tech is unlikely to get a berth.  Kind of a tough result.  But if you want a playoff with conference winners, I don't see how it's any different.
Tech can't get to the Big 12 championship without Oklahoma losing... and if that happens, Oklahoma is out of the picture.
It's an interesting theory, though.  That'd be some insane chaos there.
The BCS locks:
Big 12 - Championship winner and 2nd place in south (Texas/Oklahoma)
SEC - UF and Alabama
Big 10 - Penn State
MWC - Utah
Big East - Cincy (if they beat Syracuse)
ACC - the one of the quadrillion teams left who ends up finally winning it
Pac 10 - Oregon State if they beat Oregon
If Oregon State loses, I believe it could still go to USC or Oregon (if UCLA beats USC).

That leaves the one remaining spot, and it's a toss up. If Oregon State and USC win out it almost certainly goes to USC.  Otherwise Ohio State probably takes it from a much more deserving Boise State.  And Ball State gets no love whatsoever (of course you can argue whether they deserve any).

11/26/08
0
If Oklahoma wins against Ok State and Florida or Bama manage to lose before the SEC Championship game and then win the SEC, then theoretically the NC game could be a Texas/OU rematch. In that scenario, it would be possible for Texas Tech to get a bid as well, because then the BCS would allow a 3rd team from the Big 12. Tech would still need some strings pulled for them to get in over some of the other teams up there.

11/27/08
1
100%InjuryRate wrote:
But the whole regular season is a playoff!

/worst argument ever. BCS must die!
if thats the way you see it,fine...but the playoff isnt complete until it reaches a final game where a true nat champ can b crowned

11/27/08
0
Craig_M wrote:
if thats the way you see it,fine...but the playoff isnt complete until it reaches a final game where a true nat champ can b crowned
But do we honestly think the two best teams will make it there?  The only way we can even figure out who's the best team in the Big 12 South is with a playoff.

11/27/08
0
If the Big 12 south can't figure it out through the regular season... what makes you think a one-and-done playoff is a more fair way to figure it out?
6 way round-robin can't do it over the course of 3 months... great, let's have a one week showdown, great... *end sarcasm*

Interesting Pat, I wonder if you're right.  I was pretty sure the 2 team rule was set in stone (though your proposal that Missouri win the title and 2 Big 12 Teams made the NC game is an interesting way to break it).
Which team is more deserving, Texas Tech or USC?
Or if Oregon State loses... then which team is more deserving, Texas Tech or Ohio State?

Sadly I think they'd quickly jump on USC or Ohio State rather than Tech, despite Tech being equally/more deserving...

 
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