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6/7/07
Predicting the MLB Draft proves difficult. Projecting the Top Prospects even harder
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As you well know the MLB Draft will be televised today on ESPN, sans all the fanfare of the NFL and NBA. (the benefit there is no Berman and Kiper, +1 MLB)

Why? Because we have absolutely no clue who's being drafted, how they'll perform and when we'll ever see their name again. Should you find yourself bored to no end, scroll through the 1st round of the drafts for the last 10 years. Far more Who?s than Ah-ha!s.

I'm sure many of us had a similar experience in high school. We either played with, against or knew someone who was considered a sensational player in your area. As far as you knew, he had to have been one of the best in the country. A friend of mine in high school fit this role. Perhaps it's that he (twice my size) drilled me with a fastball in little league (tears ... lots) that I'll never forget how good he was. Threw in the 90's, stroked a home run every other at bat, your basic All-State resume. What happened? He played college ball at Michigan and fizzled (of course a doctor now, so fizzled is relative). No one can explain it, that's just the idiosyncrasies of baseball scouting.

Just for the sake of experiment, let's look at the 2000 Draft. For every 1st pick - Adrian Gonzalez (success), there's a 3rd - Luis Montanez (Cubs, go figure). Rocco Baldeli was the 6th pick in this draft. He looked promising and then was hit with injuries. Common theme. As you scroll through this list, you'll notice more major leaguers in the bottom half of the 1st round  (Utley, Bonser, Wainwright, Thorman, Heilman, Kelly Johnson) than the top half. That doesn't happen in football or basketball, hockey even. It makes the MLB draft a total crapshoot, but I suppose that's also a source of intrigue. I know I'll be watching to see who'll be the next huge Cubs disappointment with the third pick.

So with that said, have fun with the MLB Mock Draft prediction below. David Prince sounds like a sure thing at the top, but after that it's a guessing game.

If you were the GM, how would you attack the June draft. Heavy pitching? Best available according to your scouts? College only? I'd love to hear your thoughts.
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