The Miami Dolphins are one of the biggest stories in the NFL this year by winning the AFC East with a 11-5 record after finishing last year as one of the worst teams of all time with a 1-15 record. The Dolphins turn around started at the end of last year's season by first hiring Bill Parcells as the GM. Parcells made a lot of off-season moves that had a direct impact on the Dolphin's success in 2008. First, he hired Tony Sparano (who was with the Cowboys as both a TE and Offensive line coach, and called the offensive plays in 2006) as head coach. Second, Parcells made a series of trades, and acquired future starters nose guard Jason Ferguson (the nose guard is the "key" player in a 3-4 defense), linebacker Akin Ayodele, and tight end Anthony Fasano. Also, Parcells traded their best defensive player Jason Talyor to the Redskins for a 2nd and 6th round draft picks, which appears to have helped the team under the philosophy of "addition by subtraction." In the NFL Draft, Parcells used the overall #1 pick on left tackle Jake Long, who helped limit the Dolphins to only 26 sacks this season (10^th ranked). Finally, he signed the final and biggest piece of the puzzle, QB Chad Pennington in late summer.

 
The Dolphin's feature a balanced offense (12th overall, 11th rushing, 10th passing), but had great success with the Wildcat formation by averaging 6 yards per attempt and 8 TDs. The Dolphins were able to turn their defense around as well with the 9th ranked scoring defense at 19.3 points per game (15th overall, 10th rushing, 25th passing). The Dolphins were able to get pressure on the QB with 40 sacks (ranked 8th), and forcing 18 INTs (ranked 8th). Furthermore, another reason for the success of the Dolphins was helped from the best turnover margin in the NFL at +17 (The Dolphins were the best team in the NFL by having the least amount of turnovers with only 13). Finally, the Dolphins are another hot team entering the playoffs by winning 9 of their last 10 games. 

The Ravens were able to return to their "old form" this year with arguably the best defense in the NFL. Statistically, the defense is ranked 2nd overall, 3rd in rushing, and 2nd in passing. The Ravens "real" strength came from creating turnovers, and led the NFL with a total of 34. Also, the Ravens lead the NFL in INTs with 26. In addition, the Ravens sacked the opposing QB 34 times, which was ranked 11th. To find a weakness in a defense, one would breakdown each section of the defense, the D-Line, the linebackers, and the secondary. Their D-Line is very strong, led by nose tackle Haloti Ngata who should be in this year's Pro Bowl, and only allowed 81 rushing yards per game, ranked 3^rd in the NFL. The linebackers are led by Future Hall of Famer, Ray Lewis, and 3-time Pro Bowler Terrell Suggs. Finally, their secondary lost Chris McAlister, one of the best CBs in the NFL, early in the season, but still has the best safety in the game in Ed Reed. Also, CB Samari Rolle had another solid season. If anyone can find a weakness in this defense, then please let me know.

The Ravens offense received a boost when they drafted Joe Flaco (If it was not for Matt Ryan, then Flacco would be the rookie everyone is drooling over). He is just the QB the Ravens needed - he's a QB to manage the game, he did very well as a rookie by limiting his INTs to 12, and he makes plays when needed.  Joe Flacco was 29 passing yards short of 3,000, and would have become only the 3rd rookie QB to pass for at least 3,000 yards (Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan are the other two). 

The running game is ranked 4^th averaging 148 yards per game, and is a triple headed monster led by Pro Bowler Le'Ron McClain, followed by a solid Willis McGahee, and finally rookie Ray Rice has contributed 454 yards on 107 carriers for a team best 4.2 yards per carry. The offense was able to average 24.1 points per game, 11^th ranked in the NFL (The last time the Ravens averaged more points was in 2003 with 25.3).

I believe the Ravens will win 20-10, in a game where the score makes it look closer than it actually was. The Ravens defense, which is only allowing 10.6 points per game in the last six games, will be too much for Miami. Miami’s philosophy this year has been to limit their own mistakes, and capitalize on other teams' mistakes. The problem with this is that the Ravens do not make many mistakes. 

On offense the Dolphins have relied on the Wildcat for 21% of their TDs. Furthermore, the Dolphins won 8 of their 11 games by 7 points or less. Earlier in the year, when both teams played each other, the Dolphins attempted the Wildcat 6 times, and the Ravens allowed a total of 4 yards. On the season, the Dolphins averaged 6 yards per attempt when they lined up in the Wildcat. The reason the Ravens stopped the Wildcat is because their defense is aggressive on every play, and they will not deviate their game plan due to a “wacky” formation in the Wildcat. On the other hand, the Dolphins had success with the Wildcat on other teams because most of the other defenses reacted to the Wildcat instead of sticking to the original play, thus giving the advantage to the Dolphins. Therefore, the Wildcat will not be a factor in this game. 

In order for the Dolphins to score they will have to set up the run for their passing game to be effective. However, I don’t see Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams able to gain many rushing yards against the Ravens rushing defense. As a result, the game will be in the hands of Chad Pennington. Yes, Pennington had a great season, but his Achilles heel is the inability to throw the ball down the field. He relies on a dink and dunk style of passing. The Ravens, who lead the NFL in INTs, will be able to exploit Pennington’s weakness in his passing game, and should be able to come up with at least 1 or 2 picks. 

The Ravens rushing game will dominate this game. McClain, McGahee, and Rice (who should be ready to play) will wear down the Dolphins defense over the course of the game, and look for one of the running backs to break a long TD run in the 4^th Quarter. As long as Flacco manages the game, and avoid throwing INTs, then the Ravens should dominate this game. Again, the final score might not illustrate how much Baltimore was in control of the game.