The Ravens and Titans game will most likely be the most physical NFL Playoff game this year. Warning: This game is not for the faint of heart.

The Titans are the quietest #1 seed in recent memory. This is most likely due to their schedule. Some of the experts and fans believed their schedule was too easy, but the only variable the Titans could control were their wins and loses. The Titans started the season 13-0, but finished the season 3-3. Beating current playoff teams 4-1 was in their control (lost last game to Indy, a lot of people would argue that the majority of the team was resting). A closer examination illustrates that the Titans were 7-1 against teams below .500, 1-1 against teams at .500 (Houston 8-8), and 5-1 against teams above .500. Personally, in my opinion even though only 38% of their games were against teams above .500 they were 5-1, and 4 of the wins were against playoff teams.

The Titans play good ‘ole fashioned smash mouth football, and have the 7th best rushing offense, but their passing offense is ranked 27th. However, in the end all that matters is that you score points. The Titans averaged 23.4 points per game, ranked 14th, but more importantly they scored a TD in the Red Zone 62.2%, ranked 3rd. Their rushing attack is based around two tough running backs that like to pound the ball and wear down the opponent’s defense as the game goes on. Chris Johnson differs from LenDale White in that he has a bit more speed and agility, as is shown with his 43 receptions for 260 receiving yards. Also, Johnson rushed 251 times for 1,228 yards and 9 TDs. On the other side, White rushed 200 times for 773 yards and 15 TDs.

Kerry Collins was dug up from his grave to start at QB after Vince Young had a mental breakdown during Week 3. Collins is not a flashy QB, but has had experience and success in the playoffs. He led the Panthers to the NFC Championship in 1996, and he led the Giants to the Super Bowl in 2000. The Titans passing offense was ranked 27th, but Collins only threw 7 picks ranked 2nd, and the Titans only allowed 12 sacks ranked 2nd. This means that Collins is probably the best QB with just “Game Managing”. Collins might not have made all the passing plays when needed, but more importantly he allowed his team to live another day evidenced by throwing the 2nd least amount of picks, leading the Titans to a +14 turnover margin ranked 2nd, and knew to get rid of the ball out of bounds instead of taking a sack (12 sacks 2nd). What does this mean? Not giving the other team more chances to score, but also limiting their starting field position.

The Titans defense is overshadowed by the Ravens, Eagles, and the Steelers, but is just as good statistically. The Titans only allow 14.6 points per game ranked 2nd, rushing defense is ranked 6th, passing defense is ranked 9th, created 31 turnovers 2nd (20 INTs 6th), and sacked the other QB 44 times ranked 5th. It is a basic defense, rush the QB with the D-line, drop the linebackers into coverage, and wait for the QB to make a mistake and tries to create interception. The defense starts on the D-line, and will be lead by a healthy Albert Haynesworth, one of the best DT in the league. He leads the team in sacks with an amazing 8.5 (Most sacks come from DEs or LBs). It is extremely difficult for a DT to have that many sacks because he is either double or tripled teamed, and other times are “blocking” for LBs to go through a gap or are a decoy on a stunt. Also, Pro Bowler DT Kyle Vanden Bosch is expected to play after missing the last few weeks. The D-line on the Titans could be the “MVP of the NFL” because not only do they stop the run, they allow the linebackers to cheat back into pass coverage to try and create INTs. The linebackers are led by veteran Keith Bulluck, and the secondary is used to capitalize when other teams makes mistakes. 2nd year safety Michael Griffin led the Titans in interceptions with 7, and is emerging as a superstar before our eyes.  
  
Last week, the Ravens dominated the Dolphins on both sides of the ball, despite out gaining the Dolphins by only 10 yards on offense. Going into the game, the Dolphins had the NFL’s best turnover margin at +17, but threw 4 picks (only threw 7 the entire year) including one that has run back for a TD in the 2nd quarter. They also had 1 fumble for a total of 5 turnovers. All together, the Ravens scored 14 points off of the turnovers, but more importantly when the Ravens did not score they pinned the Dolphins deep in their own territory. Therefore, for the majority of the game the Dolphins had a long field to drive down in order to score points. The Dolphins did not have the offensive weapons to drive down the field. On the other side of the ball the Ravens rushed for a total of 151 yards, McClain added 75 yards and a TD and McGahee added 62 yards. Most importantly, Joe Flacco did not turn the ball over to give the Dolphins any life. He only completed 39% of his passes, but rushed a TD with about 4 minutes left to ice the game 27-9.

Normally, this is where I pick the winner of the game, and state my reasons why. This time I plan on picking the winner last, after I explain a few things. These teams are pretty much identical when trying to analyze their offensive, defensive stats, turnover margin, interceptions, touchdowns allowed in the red zone. However, there are both a few “hidden” statistical differences, and the team’s defensive philosophies. For the most part, there is not much difference in each team’s offensive ideology. However, whereas the Titans normally just rush their D-line, and wait for the QB to make a mistake that results in an interception, the Ravens have a very aggressive defense, and will make the offense react to them. Also, the Ravens linebackers are versatile, they can sack the QB or go into coverage and pick the ball off. Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs have combined for 6 picks and 11.5 sacks. The Titans lack linebackers that have these abilities. I am NOT saying the Titans linebackers are poor at all, they just do not possess some very rare and unique skill sets that their opponents have.  

Now to the important stats that will have an effect on this game. First, the Ravens score a TD 47.1% of the time in the red zone, ranked 25th, compared to the Titan’s 62.2% ranked 3rd. There are two reasons for this. First, the Ravens have kicked 6 more FGs in the Red Zone, and the Ravens have turned the ball over 4 more times than the Titans. The most likely explanation for the Ravens lack of success in the red zone compared to the Titans is that Joe Flacco is a rookie, and is still learning. On the other hand, the Titans have Kerry Collins, a veteran QB just managing the game, and the red zone is one of the important areas of the field to manage. Therefore, when the Ravens reach the red zone, they have to score touchdowns, and not settle for field goals or worse turn the ball over. Also, the Ravens are allowing too many sacks, 33 and ranked 18th. The main reason for the Ravens allowing too many sacks are all the injuries to the O-line.

Speaking of injuries, this game could be determined by the loss of All Pro Center Kevin Mawae (Pro Bowl 1999-2004 & 2008, and 3X All Pro 1999, 2001, 2008) who plays for the Titans (There is a decent chance he will be in the Hall of Fame, certainly not a 1st ballot, but would have to wait a while on the ballot). First, the center is the “QB” of the O Line, and calls all the blitz pickups, aka who blocks who. Also, this is just not your normal center, especially in this type of offense. He's probably the fastest center to ever play the game reinventing the position with the ability to pull to the outside on running plays. For example, there are designed plays were the center and the left guard will pull, and will go block whoever shows up on the right side. Without Mawae playing in this game, it does not hurt the Titans run game, but cripples it. The Ravens will be smelling blood. If Tennessee has problems running the ball, and ends up 3rd and long, then expect the Ravens to pin their ears back and apply pressure on Collins. Collins was brought in to not make mistakes, and was definitely not brought for the Titans to rely on his arm to win the game by himself. The Achilles heel for the Titans are their WRs, Bo Scaife leads the team in receptions 58 with yards 561. Their RB, Johnson is 2nd on the team in receptions with 43. Justin Gage leads the Titans in receiving yards with 651 and 6 TDs. My point is that if the Titans struggle running the ball due to the loss of Mawae, then they will not be able to win the game against this Ravens defense. Hey, Pennington threw 4 picks last week, while only throwing 7 picks in 17 prior games.

I believe the Ravens win the game 16-7. With the Titans unable to get their running game going because of the loss of Mawae, Collins will face the Ravens blitzes all day, and will eventually make a mistake throwing 1 or 2 picks. One of the interceptions will set the Ravens up deep in the Titans side of the field, and will lead to directly to a TD. I believe there will be a stalemate between the Ravens rushing offense and the Titans defense for the majority of the game. The Ravens will be able to get close enough to kick a few FGs. As long as Joe Flacco does not make an major mistakes, a pick six, then the Ravens should win. The Titans are a much better defense than the Dolphins, and will get pressure on Flacco. It is up to Flacco to know when to take the sack, or get outside the pocket and throw it away