Reason To Believe

2/8/13 in   |   pigskinfan   |   40 respect

Things have gone very well so far in this new month, and here we go into the weekend. I'd like to say that this is where I'm really going to make some hay, but sometimes it just doesn't work that way. We just don't jump at anything out there because things have turned around and are going good again. I won't call it cautious optimism, but instead, it's just business as usual. Take what's there when it shows up. Let's get to it.

 

 

THE NBA (1-1 last night and 18-13 so far for the week)

 

 

SU WINNERS (2-0 last night and 21-10 so far for the week)

WIZARDS, Lakers, PACERS, Spurs, CAVS, HAWKS, HEAT, GRIZZLIES, ROCKETS, THUNDER, Knicks and JAZZ

 

 

TOTALS (1-1 last night and 20-11 so far for the week)

OVERS - Raptors/PACERS (188 1/2), Magic/CAVS (197), Hornets/HAWKS (194), Clippers/HEAT (195), Warriors/GRIZZLIES (191) and Suns/THUNDER (206)

UNDERS - Nets/WIZARDS (186), Lakers/BOBCATS (204), Spurs/PISTONS (197), Blazers/ROCKETS (211 1/2), Knicks/WOLVES (196) and Bulls/JAZZ (185 1/2)

 

 

BUTTA (no play last night and 2-1 so far for the week)

1. Spurs (-220) over PISTONS - I would lay the (-5) hung on the Spurs because they are at least that much better than the Pistons, but looking at the numbers, I see that the dog in this series is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and the Spurs are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against Detroit. However, San Antonio has won the last 3 SU and 5 of the last 6 over the Pistons. Spurs 101, PISTONS 89

2. HEAT (-250) over Clippers - The Clips are off a win, but that was against a very bad and injury depleted Magic squad, and they struggled to get that done. Right now, the Clips aren't a very good team. They're stagnant on offense if they can't get out and run, and the Heat isn't going to allow that. I probably ought to lay the (-4 1/2) because the home team in this series is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings, plus the Clips are only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. I'll be patient with the Heat though. They often seem to leave opponents in games. HEAT 109, Clippers 90

 

 

ALL THE REST

1. WIZARDS (pk) over NETS - This just feels like one of those games where the Wiz play up to their recent high level, while the Nets struggle again on the road. WIZARDS 93, Nets 86

2. BOBCATS (+6) vs. Lakers - The Lakers certainly looked feeble last night in Boston, and they're only 3-6 SU in b2b closers this season when on the road. This 'Cat squad is really bad though, so maybe the Lakers can squeak one out here. Lakers 99, BOBCATS 94

3. PACERS (-7 1/2) over Raptors - How can you go against the Pacers right now? The price is just a little too high for me to pay though, and there's just not enough wiggle room between the posted number and my projection for the game. PACERS 104, Raptors 93

4. CAVS (-7) over Magic - I was thinking the OVER might be the way to look for this game. The number is certainly too far out of range for me with the Cavs, regardless of how bad things are for the Magic right now. CAVS 117, Magic 100

5. HAWKS (-5) over Hornets - Here we go with the Hawks being a favorite with a "squishy" number against a feisty Stingers squad. That usually spells trouble. HAWKS 109, Hornets 93

6. GRIZZLIES (-3 1/2) over Warriors - We may be right at the beginning of one of the greatest collapses to a season in NBA history with the Griz. They have looked totally out of sorts since the Rudy Gay trade, and the Warriors are the kind of team that can put you in a real bad mood, real quick if you aren't careful. GRIZZLIES 100, Warriors 94

7. ROCKETS (-6 1/2) over Blazers - It's hard to lay this many with a Rockets team that treats defense as only an option from time to time, but Houston seems to have gotten their mojo back after a brutal stretch of scheduling, and I expect they'll do enough to at least get the win here. ROCKETS 112, Blazers 98

8. THUNDER (-13) over Suns - The Suns have one saving grace tonight. At least they're not on the back end of a b2b. The bad news, however, is that they're going to have to deal with maybe the best team in the league. THUNDER 118, Suns 89

9. WOLVES (+6 1/2) vs. Knicks - The Knicks are a team that's given to hot and cold moments because of the way they approach the game and launch so many bombs. Sometimes those bombs don't hit their mark, and that's when they get in trouble. Knicks 96, WOLVES 92

10. JAZZ (-4) over Bulls - Generally speaking, the Bulls have been pretty good coming off a loss in the Coach Thibodeau era, and they got overwhelmed last night. I think Chicago is the better team here, but my numbers don't agree, and that's all I'm going to say about it. JAZZ 96, Bulls 81

 

 

COLLEGE HOOPS (8-8 ATS/10-6 SU/10-6 TOTALS last night and 22-22/28-16/20-24 so far for the week)

Only one game to look at for tonight, and it comes to us from the WAC. It's really tempting to jump on Utah St. here because San Jose St. has shriveled up and died since having to suspend their best player. The Aggies have been dealing with a lot of injuries though. They're clearly the better team, but the number won't let me jump.

 

 

Utah St. (-6, U124) 63, SAN JOSE ST. 52

 

 

Buh-dee! Buh-dee! Buh-dee! That's all, folks! I'll see you bright and early tomorrow morning for what will be a very busy day. Have a great night, and be careful out there.

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