Continuing with the info of the Kentucky Derby runners this year, it’s now time for the best 5 post positions (11-15); the more preferred starting spots as odds of winning from these spots is the highest. Since the track looks to be sloppy, everything changes. Because of that, let’s look back at the first 10 before going on with the rest.
Gate 1: West Side Bernie still running in the middle pack if he gets a good break from the gate. Odds are still 30-1.
Gate 2: Musket Man still a top runner that may break into the top 5 if he doesn’t get pinned in against the rail. Odds are still 20-1.
Gate 3: Mr. Hot Stuff is still a horse waiting to come alive and if it happens here he’ll be a definite top 5, otherwise he’ll be in the back of the pack. Odds are still 30-1.
Gate 4: Advice will not give Pletcher that Derby win yet and look for him to be at the back of the pack. Odds are still 30-1.
Gate 5: Hold Me Back is a possible front runner, but will probably fade to middle pack at the end. Odds are still 15-1.
Gate 6: Friesan Fire loves sloppy tracks, so look for a possible win and at least a top 3 finish. Odds are still 5-1.
Gate 7: Papa Clem might surprise with a top 3, but will get at least a top 10. Odds are still 20-1.
Gate 8: Mine That Bird should be a middle pack finish with Calvin Borel aboard. Odds are still 50-1.
Gate 9: Join in the Dance should be running in the middle of the pack which is better than Pletcher’s other horse Advice. Odds are still 50-1.
Gate 10: Regal Ransom still will be in contention for the win, but will fade to middle pack in the end. Odds are still 30-1.
Now, on to the next 5 horses in the race.
Gate 11: Chocolate Candy is out of Crownette and Candy Ride. The bloodlines are more than there with two Triple Crown winners in the family. All one has to do is look at his race record of 9-4-2-1 (starts-wins-place/2nd-show/3rd) with the one race considered a true prep for the Derby finishing 2nd. Chocolate Candy is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by jockey Mike Smith. Both are good, but Hollendorfer is known best for his bad luck with Derby horses, having scratched many of his attempt. Look for a great race out of Chocolate Candy and a possible top 5; with at least a top 10. Odds are currently 20-1.
Gate 12: General Quarters is out of Ecology and Sky Mesa. Bloodlines are great going back, but the same outstanding bloodlines have had bad luck at the Kentucky Derby with many scratches due to injuries. General Quarters has proven to be more of a disappointment though with a race record of 11-3-3-1, though he did win the Blue Grass. General Quarters is trained by Thomas R. McCarthy and ridden by jockey Julien Leparoux. Neither are that well known, but Julien has proven a top jockey even though both his previous Derby rides finished unplaced. General Quarters may break the top 10, but much higher than that is almost impossible. Odds are currently 20-1.
Gate 13: I Want Revenge was scratched this morning due to a swollen ankle.
Gate 14: Atomic Rain is out of Paradise Pond and Smart Strike. Though the bloodlines are great on the Smart Strike side Atomic Rain has a race record of 7-1-3-1. Atomic Rain is trained by Kelly Breen and ridden by jockey Joe Bravo. Kelly Breen is better known than jockey Joe Bravo, but the combination could prove decent with Atomic Rain running middle pack and probably getting a top 10 finish. Odds are currently 50-1.
Gate 15: Dunkirk is out of Secret Status and Unbridled’s Song. This horse has the strongest bloodlines of any, but is very lightly raced. Dunkirk has a record of 3-2-1-0, with the 2nd being in a high graded race, so he might not be able to stand up to the top horses in this field. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by jockey Edgar Prado, both of which are top known names. Look for Dunkirk to be in Pletcher’s best chance at the elusive Derby win with at least a top 5 finish. Odds are currently 4-1.