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Before the start of the season, I predicted the Phoenix Suns as NBA champions.
How quickly things can change.
In one of the most unexpected blockbuster trades in NBA history, the Phoenix Suns have traded All-Star forward Shawn Marion and little used point guard Marcus Banks to the Miami Heat for legendary center Shaquille O'Neal.
On paper, this deal makes little sense for the Suns. Off paper, it makes absolutely no sense.
Led by Steve Nash and masterminded by Coach Mike D'Antoni, Phoenix's style of play is the fastest in the league. The run n' gun attack is averaging 109.39 points per game.
So why add Shaq to the mix?
Shawn Marion needed to go. The Matrix is a perfect player for Phoenix's system but is hardly a factor in the postseason when the game inevitably slows down and the fast break points and easy rebounds he lives upon are no longer available.
Shawn would have opted out and signed elsewhere in the off-season. Marion has never been happy with his role in Phoenix. He's felt underused and underrated. He should have felt blessed to have played with two of the greatest point guards of all-time in Jason Kidd and Steve Nash. Nash and Kidd highlighted his strengths and covered his weaknesses.
Shaq will give Phoenix a true back to the basket scorer. Amare Stoudemire does most of his damage facing the basket and off the dribble.
Shaquille still possesses 60% accuracy from the field. If the Suns can find a way to utilize him, he will provide a high percentage shot every trip down the floor, similar to what Boozer, Duncan, Bynum, & Gasol provide to Phoenix's Western contemporaries.
Adding a 350 pound player clogs the middle...I guess.
Why it won't work:
In order to run n' gun you have to be able to do the former. Nagging injuries to his knees, ankles, and hips have robbed Shaq of all explosiveness. I can't wait to see a Phoenix fast break with a 350 pound anchor tied to it.
Shaq can't play defense. I know...I know...Phoenix doesn't play much defense to begin with but at least their stars stay out of foul trouble. That won't be the case with the Big MolASSes.
A staple of Phoenix's offense and nearly every other team in the West is the pick-and-roll. Baron Davis, Tony Parker, Brandon Roy, Allen Iverson, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and especially Kobe Bryant will kill Phoenix by going right at Shaq when his man sets picks and he's forced to help.
Besides scoring, Shaq doesn't provide any other intangibles. Gone will be Marion's rebounding and defensive versatility. How will Phoenix guard Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili now that Raja Bell is their only defensive stopper?
Why it's a bad deal for both teams:
Miami
Some believe that Marion will be the Pippen to Wade's Jordan. Shawn Marion is no Scottie Pippen and Dwayne Wade is no Michael Jordan. Think a team with MJ would EVER be 9-37? I don' t. I have a hard enough time believing a team led by Kobe Bryant or LeBron James would EVER be 9-37.
Shawn Marion is a gifted athlete and that athleticism allows him to do many things. But he lacks basic fundamentals and is truly a product of Phoenix's system. He is incapable of creating his own shot or creating for others. His deficiencies will be exposed in Miami.
Shawn is 29 years old. At best, he has two seasons of peak athleticism left. Once his athleticism begins to fade, he will be a very average basketball player.
Marion's defense, while versatile, is also overrated. Just because he CAN guard the point guard through center positions doesn't mean he can stop any of them. Quick trivia: who defended Tony Parker in last year's playoffs? Yep, the defensive Matrix "held" the eventual Finals MVP to 21 points per game in a 4-2 loss.
Marion will make $16 million this season and has a player option for $17 million for the 2008-2009 season. Much has been made of the 2008-2009 free agent class of Gilbert Arenas, Baron Davis, Elton Brand, Antawn Jamison, Ron Artest and Corey Maggette but Shawn would be a fool to opt out of his contract when there is absolutely NO CHANCE he will receive an offer close to that value. Which means Miami will not have the cap room to go after those players and that after the 2008-2009 season the Heat will have one season to either resign Marion or rebuild into a playoff contender to convince Dwyane Wade to remain in South Beach when he can opt out after the 2009-2010 season.
Ben Wallace's contract with the Bulls will also expire after the 2009-2010 season and I can guarantee that Chicago will do everything in their power to try and convince D. Wade, a Chicago native, to come home.
While potentially freeing cap space sooner, acquiring Marion doesn't give Miami any greater chance of short term success than Shaq did. And short term success is exactly what Miami needs if they hope to retain Wade.
Phoenix
Phoenix contemplated trading Stoudemire and/or Marion this off-season due to their reluctance to pay the luxury tax. Shaq is in the 3rd year of a 5 year $100 million contract. Am I missing something here?
Acquiring Shaq fails to solve two of Phoenix's biggest problems: interior defense and depth. In fact, it makes them worse in those departments. As I mentioned above, Marion was a very versatile defender and stayed out of foul trouble. Shaq fouled out of FIVE consecutive games this season. That trend will continue in Phoenix and the Suns bench will be shortened that much more.
Marion & Banks COULD have fetched two or three defensive minded role players.
Tim Duncan has his way with Amare Stoudemire. As do Boozer and Bynum. Even in his prime, Shaquille was never a great defender. Phoenix now possesses one of the most porous frontcourts in the NBA. Who possesses the best frontcourt (power forward & center) in the NBA? The Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix's pacific division rival.
Best case scenarios:
Phoenix wins the 2007-2008 NBA championship and Shaq goes out on top, freeing 20 million in cap space over the next two seasons.
Marion opts out of his contract after this season and the Heat convince a completely recovered Elton Brand to join Dwyane Wade in Miami.
Worst case scenarios:
Shaquille O'Neal and the Suns endure a playoff upset by the Los Angeles Lakers. Kobe Bryant averages 28 points and 8 assists and Andrew Bynum dominates The Diesel, putting an exclamation mark on the fact that the Lakers made the right decision in trading Shaquille and giving Kobe Bryant the last laugh.
Over the next two seasons, one of basketball's most entertaining teams is broken up and Steve Nash and Shaquille O'Neal, former MVP's, retire as losers.
Shawn Marion decides to remain in Miami after this season and the Heat once again fail to make the playoffs during the 2008-2009 campaign. Dwyane Wade signs with the Bulls after the 2010 NBA season. Was your 2006 NBA championship worth mortgaging your franchise Mr. Riley?
As you can see, there are plenty of variables and many questions to be answered.
Time will tell, but the NBA hit the nail right on the head with their marketing campaign this season.
The NBA, where amazing happens.
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