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8/21/08
Sharpie 500 Race Preview: They Don't Call It THUNDER VALLEY for Nothin'!
They've added gradual banking in the corners for more side-by-side racing.  They have a new car that's harder to turn.  There's no telling what to expect.  Okay, hold it right there, yes we do know what to expect, IT'S BRISTOL!  Watching the truck race last night, there were quite a few incidents.  Even Jimmie Johnson couldn't hang on to his car, saying "I guess I finally ran out of talent."  No you didn't, Jimmie, that's Bristol and you know it.  You don't have room to try to correct the car (or truck) as much as he did last night at Bristol and not eventually spin out.  What you're guaranteed to see is a wreckfest, as the Cup Series goes crash-boom-bang into the night at the world's fastest half-mile.

It's fast, it's furious, and it'll tear up your car faster than you can shake a stick.  They don't give Bristol the nickname "Thunder Valley" for nothing.  It's always an exciting race to watch, and as Larry McReynolds always tells us, when you check into the hotel make sure you check your feelings in at the desk and leave them there, because if you don't, your feelings WILL get hurt.  Tempers boil over easily at a short track.  Take 1 short track under the lights, 43 short fuses, 12 drivers trying for 7 spots in the Chase for the Cup, and a sellout crowd of over 160,000 strong, mix it all together, and you've got yourself a recipe for disaster that is the Sharpie 500.

Will we see the bump-and-run for the win this weekend?  It's not as easy to do now with the COT, as it's a lot harder to push this car out of the way with a bump from behind.  However, it can still be done.  Jeff Gordon has done it many a-day.  Kurt Busch also got his first career win with the move on Jimmy Spencer back in 2002 in the Food City 500.  Then there was that 1999 Goody's 500 finish, this very race, where Dale Earnhardt spun out Terry Labonte coming off turn 2 on the final lap.  He said "I just wanted to rattle his cage a little."  Well he did that and more to Texas Terry, and he also rattled the cage of every fan in the stands that night.  Will something like this happen again?  If someone has a chance to do it for the win, trust me, they will!

Kyle Busch is locked into the Chase.  Edwards, Johnson, Earnhardt Jr., and Burton can lock themselves in Saturday with a good finish...well sort of for our token backflipper.  Here's the breakdown, courtesy of NASCAR.com.  Get a pencil and paper to write this all down, because it's a big wad of confusion...

Carl Edwards: Can clinch a spot in the Chase by finishing 25th or better, OR finishing 27th and leading at least one lap, OR finishing 30th and leading the most laps.

Jimmie Johnson: Can clinch a spot in the Chase by finishing 2nd or better, OR finshing third and leading at least one lap, OR finishing 5th and leading the most laps.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Can clinch a spot in the Chase by winning the race and leading the most laps, OR by losing less than 16 points to Clint Bowyer and David Ragan.

Jeff Burton: Can clinch a spot in the Chase by winning and leading the most laps, OR by losing less than 20 points to Clint Bowyer and David Ragan.

So this means Edwards should be a lock the way he's been running as of late, not to mention he's the defending winner of this race.  Johnson has also been running well, save the hiccup at Michigan last week, so he should also be in good shape.  Also, to make it easy to understand, Dale Jr. and Jeff Burton can clinch as long as they finish ahead of both Bowyer and Ragan.  My prediction for this week is that all 4 of these guys will clinch their place in the Chase for the Cup.  That will allow them to go all out and just go for the win in the last 2 races before the Chase.

What can we look for this weekend?  Well for starters, we've already mentioned that you'll see a wreckfest simply because it's Bristol.  The guys from 6th through 17th in the points will be giving it everything they've got for 500 laps.  If any of these guys don't make it to all 500 laps, their Chase hopes may have to wait until 2009.  So if you're in this group, and your name isn't Tony Stewart or Greg Biffle, you better have a solid run if you want to keep your Chase hopes alive at the end of the night.  8 of these 12 drivers are winless so far in 2008.  5 of them are currently in the Chase, and I've already spotlighted those 5 drivers.  The other 3 winless drivers who are still in Chase contention (as I'm basically writing Jamie McMurray out for 2008 because he needs a miracle to make this year's Chase) are David Ragan, Brian Vickers, and Martin Truex Jr.  There's only 3 races left before the Chase starts, so at least 5 of these guys won't win before the Chase starts.  However, they can and will make it interesting over the next 3 races.  There's going to be a lot of drama with 12 guys fighting for 7 spots.

Expect the guys who are on the bubble to fight for all it's worth Saturday night.  I would love to see a first time winner, which would only be David Ragan among the guys grasping at a spot in the top 12.  It would also go a long way, and would be a huge confidence boost if one of the 5 Winless Chasers were able to score a victory.  They of course are Stewart, Biffle, Harvick, Gordon, and Kenseth.  When the lights come on at Bristol, Matt Kenseth shines.  Out of all 5 of these drivers, he has the best chance to win the Sharpie 500, in my humble opinion.  However, I am not giving him the nod this week.  I think one or 2 of these 12 drivers will have a problem on Saturday, possibly ending their Chase hopes.  On the other side of the spectrum, I think at least half of these drivers will finish in the top 15 in Thunder Valley and will keep the race just as tight as it is now.

My Pick: Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Call me biased, but I don't care.  He won this race back in 2004, and in his last 10 Bristol races, his lowest finish is 11th.  He knows what he needs to to do make this Chase, and I look for the 88 to end the night in victory lane, with Kenseth, Edwards, and Harvick behind him just running out of time to make a final pass for the win.

Dark Horse: Kurt Busch - He hasn't had the best of seasons, but he is a 5-time winner here.  Couple Kurt with Roger Penske in the Blue Deuce, and you have a recipe for success.  His last win here in the #2 in 2006 gave me flashbacks of Rusty in that car.  He hasn't won in the last 4 Bristol races, but he has to be among the contenders when you think of Bristol.  Look for Kurt Busch to make a stand this Saturday, and I for one wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him steal a victory.

Catch the Sharpie 500 this Saturday at 7:00 on ESPN, and as always keep it tuned right here to The Blitzburgh Pit Stop for NASCAR on the Q...NOW LET'S GO RACING!

BK over and out
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