The Chase for the Nextel Cup Championship kicks off this weekend as the Nascar series heads to Loudon, New Hampshire for the Sylvania 300.  The New Hampshire International Speedway is a track that has some bad karma over it because of some untimely deaths that have occurred there in recent years.  The track has had problems with its surface in the past which have lead to many bad accidents.  As a result, owners have repaved the turns in the speedway with asphalt and reground the areas between the turns and straightaways to make a more even transition which will be squared and even.

When it comes to racing successfully at Loudon, a good handling package for the car is the key.  The car must be set up well at the beginning of the race and then fine tuned as this new track surface becomes used.  The conditions will change and the car must be good on the lower groove and not slide up the track through the corners.  Since this is a Car of Tomorrow race there will be additional pressure put on pit crews to gain positions for drivers on their pit stops, since passing in the COT seems to be more difficult than with the older cars. That means pit strategy late could play an important part in determining who wins this race.

If you look at the Top 12 chase contenders, 11 of them rank in the Top 16 drivers at New Hampshire International Speedway.  4 of them, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick are the top 4 at this track.  With this being a COT race, both Hendrick and Gibbs have to be considered the programs most likely to succeed.  Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch lead the Hendrick parade while Hamlin and Tony Stewart are Gibbs racing best bets.  I expect these 5 drivers to be near the front when the checkered flag waves at the end of this race.

Others to Watch

Jeff Burton - He owns the third-most Top 10's (5) among active drivers in the past five seasons at New Hampshire, including three straight seventh-place finishes.

Ryan Newman - Though he missed the Chase, Newman has posted the second-most Top 10s among active drivers in the past five seasons at New Hampshire. This includes a win in September '05 and 10th in July.

Dale Earnhardt Jr - The team and driver are on a mission. He doesn't want to leave without winning a race in the last year and two-thirds of his time at DEI.

Martin Truex Jr - He finished third in July's race after leading for 46 laps. He's clinched four top 11's in the last five Cup races.

What the experts think

My pick - Denny Hamlin - He owns the best average finish (3.7) at New Hampshire among active drivers in the past five seasons. He won July's race at the track and has clinched all Top 10s and two top-fives in three career events. He's also clinched four Top 10s and three Top 5's in his last six Cup races, including sixth last week at Richmond.

Sleeper pick - Kurt Busch - He's had two wins and two seconds in New Hampshire in the past, but the last four trips here have ended in poor results for Busch. On the other hand, he's one of the hottest drivers on the circuit right now, with a streak of nine consecutive top 11 runs currently happening.