Somewhere I Belong

10/13/13 in NFL   |   pigskinfan   |   41 respect

You could ask me if I was a little agitated by the fact that, overall, my numbers didn't bear up so well yesterday, but you should know the answer already.  Yeah, I take the risk.  I put myself out there on every football game on the board every week, so there's bound to be some scars here and there.  The games that matter most, though, are the ones I'm actually laying, and that makes yesterday a perfect day no matter how you slice it.  That trifecta left me with a great week at 6-1 (4-0 with college football, 1-1 in the NFL and 1-0 with baseball).  So, as we hit the middle week of a 5-week month, I'm sitting pretty right now at 10-3 (6-2 with college football, 2-1 in the NFL and 2-0 with baseball).  It's still a long, hard road to ride this month though.  Let's get crackin'.
 
 
 
THE NFL  (6-8 last week and 15-14 so far for the month)
 
 
BUTTA  (1-1 last week and 2-1 so far for the month)
TEXANS (-7 1/2) over Rams - I might catch a lot of grief for this one.  The Texans have been pretty pathetic over the last 3 weeks, but consider their situation and the opposition.  The Rams are a team that has been more than a little disappointing as far as my estimation of their chances at the start of the season.  They can't run the ball, they have no deep threat outside to threaten an opposing defense and they don't defend well themselves either.  I know it was a win for them last week, but they gave up 27 to the Jags for crying out loud.  The Texans are a wounded animal right now.  They're desperate and at home, and they just aren't going to lose a 2nd straight home game---at least not against the Rams.
 
 
ALL THE REST 
  1.  Bengals (-6 1/2) over BILLS - I don't see how the Bills are going to generate any offense with Tuel at QB today, but I can't move on this one.  The Bills can play some defense too, and the Bengals haven't exactly been lighting it up with their offense so far.
  2.  Lions (-2 1/2) over BROWNS - Bad luck for Brian Hoyer and the Brownies.  And that works on a couple levels.  Hoyer gave the Browns a spark that they really needed.  The other problem for Cleveland is that Megatron will be back for the Lions today, and that opens up the Lions offense.
  3.  Raiders (+8) at CHIEFS - This isn't going to be a popular selection around these parts, but I think it's a good one.  The Raiders are the most hated team known to mankind here in God's Country, but they've won the last 6 times they've been to Arrowhead.  I think that streak will be snapped today, but this is an awful lot of points to be laying on Coach Reid's dink and dunk offense.
  4.  Panthers (+2 1/2) at VIKINGS - The Panthers were a bad choice last week.  They might be again this week too, but I just don't see Cam Newton channeling his inner Carson Palmer and throwing 4 picks again.
  5.  Eagles (-3) over BUCS - There's a lot of trouble in that Bucs locker room right now.  We're only at Week 6, and Coach Schiano has been reduced to trying to figure out who's with him and who's against him with the whole Josh Freeman situation.  The Eagles have problems of their own, but they're still a player in the weak NFC East.  This would be a lead pipe cinch play if Vick wasn't injured and out for today, but now, I've just got to let it slide.
  6.  RAVENS (+3) over Packers - Here we go again.  The Champs are getting points at home.  It's hard to pass on that even with what looks like a fairly weak secondary.
  7.  JETS (-1) over Steelers - I don't know how a case can be made for the Steelers.  Yes, they've still got Big Ben, and you know he's going to battle to the last bullet.  But this is a bad football team.  The defense is long in the tooth and maybe a half step slow now, and the O-Line can't run or pass block.  I sure don't want to bank anything on a rookie QB, but if I were to make this play, it would be all about the mismatch in the trenches when the Steelers offense is on the field.
  8.  BRONCOS (-27) over Jaguars - This is the biggest number posted on an NFL game since the Steelers took on Tampa Bay in the Bucs inaugural season in the league.  The final of that game:  Steelers 42, Bucs 0.  This one is probably going to end up looking a lot like that one.
  9.  SEAHAWKS (-13 1/2) over Titans - Tennessee is going into a hornet's nest today.  Seattle is a terrible place to have to go to try and win a football game, but to add to the Titans woes, the Hawks are off a loss.  If you think the Broncs game is going to be brutal, just wait and see how this one ends up looking a lot like it.
10.  PATRIOTS (-2) over Saints - The Saints are a really good football team.  They're going to have a lot to say about who the NFC entry in the Super Bowl is, but off a loss and back home, the only team that can beat the Pats today will be the Pats themselves.
11.  49ERS (-10) over Cardinals - I was hoping it wouldn't take Coach Harbaugh long to figure out that his bread and butter is with power football.  Ground and pound has resulted in 2 very decisive wins in a row for the Niners, and it will be 3 after today.
12.  Redskins (+6) at COWBOYS - Whether Peyton Manning is in town or not, the Cowboys defense still sucks.  I guess Fox and CBS must have "protected" Packers/Ravens and Saints/Patriots because I don't think anybody cares about seeing this matchup on SNF.
 
 
TOTALS  (6-2 last week and 10-4 so far for the month)
OVERS - Raiders/CHIEFS (41), Panthers/VIKINGS (44), Steelers/JETS (41), Jaguars/BRONCOS (53 1/2), Titans/SEAHAWKS (41 1/2), Cardinals/49ERS (41 1/2) and Redskins/COWBOYS (53 1/2)
UNDERS - Bengals/BILLS (41 1/2) and Saints/PATRIOTS (49 1/2)
 
 
Happiness is time enough for a quick catnap before all the fun and games commence for a Sunday.  Have a great day, be careful out there and I'll see you tomorrow.
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