Sports Illustrated's Curious Logic for BCS Bowl Projections

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8/22/07

Sports Illustrated's Curious Logic for BCS Bowl Projections

NCAAF

CriticalFanatic

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I decided to scroll back through Sports Illustrated's College Football Preview and enter in some expert picks for our Preseason College Football Polls (You should enter those, btw. All of them).

Upon further review, I noticed what I've got to believe is a blunder. That, or I missed a significant memo on the bowl selection process this off-season. Come take a walk with me through the SI College Football Preview Issue:

Take a look at SI's Big East Conference Predictions: (pg 119 in the mag issue)

1. West Virginia 6-1 (11-1)
2. Louisville 6-1 (11-1)
3. Rutgers 5-2 (10-2)

Then flip over to SI's Bowl Predictions on page 129 (I assume these will be published online by the end of the week)

Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech vs West Virginia
Rose Bowl - Michigan vs Rutgers
Sun Bowl - California vs Louisville

I've got an extremely hard time believing a) the Rose Bowl would even select a Big East team unless forced, b) the THIRD PLACE team at 10-2 would be rewarded with a BCS bid while c) the 2nd place team at 11-1 gets sent to the Sun Bowl.

Can I get some clarification here, Sports Illustrated? Surely you didn't make this big a mistake in your College Football Preview Issue.

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683 days ago

Adam

VOTE:

-0

You don't even know how many mistakes they make, but yeah somethings wrong with that pick.

683 days ago

ToughGuy13

VOTE:

-0

(Edited 08/23/07 10:03AM by ToughGuy13)

Though I don't agree with the prediction, it's not that hard to understand. The BCS bowls can pick any at-large they want just as long as the team wins 9 games and is in the top 14 of the BCS standings. Nowhere in the BCS guidelines does it say the BCS is obligated to take a conference's second-place team or not take a third-place team. SI is assuming Rutgers will be in the top 14 and will be a good replacement for the Pac-10 champ. The next bowl bid for the Big East is either the Gator or Sun Bowl, so that's why you see UL at the Sun Bowl.

You needed clarification, and there it is. It doesn't mean we have to agree with SI's picks, though.

683 days ago

JerseyDP

VOTE:

-0

While I don't think RU will get the bid to the Rose Bowl, it's easy to see as a possiblilty, just follow the money. Rutgers brings with it the New York media/ratings market.

683 days ago

CriticalFanatic

VOTE:

-0

JerseyDP wrote:

While I don't think RU will get the bid to the Rose Bowl, it's easy to see as a possiblilty, just follow the money. Rutgers brings with it the New York media/ratings market.

I just have a hard time believing a 3rd place 10-2 Rutgers team is more attractive, and would even be in the top of the BCS with the weaker schedule, than Louisville. But should they be in the Top 14, you make a good point about the New York Ratings.

The Rose Bowl would make an effort to choose a 2nd Pac-10 team before the New York influence.