When I looked for an underdog bet in this week's "Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers" event I considered two things: The matchup odds and who on the list offers good underdog value, while also having a great shot at pulling off a moderate upset win.

In this week's event, I pick Jason "Mayhem" Miller. With online sportsbook posting up all the MMA odds early for this event, the current line on this bout has Jake Shields at -260 to win over Miller at +200. I like the value with Miller in this matchup.

Miller is 22-6-0, with only one loss by KO and one by submission. The other four losses went the distance and ended up as decision loses. 13 of 22 wins have come via submission, 4 by KO and 4 by decision. It's obvious that Miller can go the distance and has only lost two before the final bell.  He's a 6'1", 185 lb middleweight. The fight against Jake Shields is for the Strikeforce Middleweight Championship that was recently vacated by former champion Cung Le.  Miller is a great grappler and submission artist. If you need to be reminded how tough Miller is watch the UFC 52 fight against George St. Pierre again. Tough.

Besides Miller's record and proven skill and tenacity, the fact that Shields is coming up from welterweight does influence my decision to back Miller. Granted, Miller is not a big middleweight, but he is natural at this weight, while Shields is used to fighting at the lighter weight.

I'm mostly giving the edge to Miller for his stand-up in comparison to Shields’ stand-up. While both are great on the ground, and Shields can definitely control and dominate down there, Miller is deep in this area as well. I'm looking to Miller to keep the fight on the feet and stuff Shields if he tries to come in for the takedown. This is where I give Miller his best chance at the upset.

The odds are favouring Shields largely due to his recent impressive victories and his strength on the ground. That said, I feel they've overlooked Miller. Sometimes Miller's style can make people forget about his substance. Miller's got the tools, talent and experience to stop Shields. Miller is smart, he's just a character and a real showman.

If Miller sticks to his game plan and looks for the victory, not the battle, I think he can pull it off.  Miller's proven ability, the fact that I think he's a smart guy that can figure out Shields, and my belief that he can stop his opponent from taking him to the mat and controlling him is making Miller my dog on this card.

Enjoy the card this weekend.

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