No, I haven't been drinking. OK, maybe a little.

I'm not just pulling a contrarian Skip Bayless prediction here, I actually do think the Giants will win tonight and here's why. Granted, I could come up with a laundry list of reasons the Patriots could win, but in the end Mercury Morris is going to be rapping.

Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora will win the battle against Nick Kaczur and Matt Light. Few teams have even come close to getting the better side of the Patriots offensive line, but those that have put up a fight were New England's closest games.

Giants had appropriate security at Saturday's walkthrough None of this crap going on this year. Of course, I'm sure Belichick figured out another way.

Giants will return a fumble for TD New York isn't winning unless they steal a touchdown somewhere along the way.

Tom Brady's ankle As much as I hated the coverage, you saw how we played against the Chargers. It's not as bad as it was then, but with some pressure I believe it'll be a factor in some misses throws late in the game.

Brandon Jacobs Everyone has a game plan, until they get hit in the mouth. For whatever reason, few teams have committed to pounding the football right at the Patriots defense for a full four quarters. Tom Coughlin's stubbornness will pay off, when it's not working early.

Jared Lorenzen will eat someone during pre-game warmups Very critical part of the game plan.

Nothing is wrong with Plaxico Burress That kind of Coughlin to play some gamesmanship with the injury reports, but nothing is wrong with Burress. He has the same bad ankle that caught 11 passes for 151 yards two weeks ago. I think Burress, though double-teamed most of tonight, will balance out the Randy Moss factor.

Eli Manning won't lose the game OK, now I've officially lost it. Elisha will throw an interception early but it won't be the Rex Grossman-like game killer. Look for a lot of short dumb offs up the middle. It's been there all season on the Patriots, probably time someone try to exploit it. It's extremely rare that a team has won the Super Bowl with this big a mismatch at the QB position, but why the hell not.

Week 17 Biggest factor above any other. Most teams have lost against New England before they stepped onto the field because they didn't believe they really had a chance. New York's proven they can play.

Giants 31, Patriots 27.