Texas A&M Football: Johnny Manziel not ready for the NFL

Let's be real: Johnny Manziel isn't ready for the NFL

5/3/13 in NCAAF   |   Tyler_Waddell   |   410 respect

Johnny Manziel may have been the nation’s most exciting player in college football last season, but is he the best NFL prospect at the quarterback position?Blog Photo - Texas A&M Football: Johnny Manziel not ready for the NFL

Manziel—who wasn’t even named the starter until mid-August of last year—quietly entered the discussion through the first six games of 2012, obliterating opposing defenses and nearly beating then-No. 24 Florida.

However, it was when Texas A&M took down No. 1 Alabama that Manziel became a celebrity. He then took the Heisman Trophy by a landslide and had probably the most famed offseason in offseason history.

Behind an excellent offensive line, strong core of receivers and NFL-caliber backfield, Manziel was able to compile an astonishing 5,115 total yards and 47 touchdowns.

Those numbers are great—but what do they mean? Not a whole lot.

Manziel only faced four defenses that ranked within the Top 50 last season, albeit three of them finished inside the Top 10.

Against those teams (Alabama, 1; Florida, 5; LSU, 8; Ole Miss, 46), he completed 93-of-143 (65.0 percent) of his passes for 893 yards (223.3 yards per game), three touchdowns and five interceptions.

That’s a 117.4 passer rating, which would have been good for 94th in the NCAA behind BYU’s Riley Nelson and Connecticut’s Chandler Whitmer. 

Since we’re talking about the NFL—and these defenses were the closest thing to next-level football—his quarterback rating would have been 74.7 in this situation, finishing him at No. 28 overall right in front of the Titans’ Jake Locker and the Browns’ Brandon Weeden.

There’s no doubting that Manziel is playmaker. What he did to Alabama is proof that he has what it takes to play on Sundays at some point in his career (although he did get lucky here). He knows how to get out of the pocket and use his feet, which is being utilized more and more in the NFL nowadays.

But then you have to take a look at what he did against teams like Florida and LSU, which had a combined 13 defensive players taken in the 2013 NFL Draft. He struggled to find consistency and failed to read the many different blitz packages and coverages thrown at him.

There’s talk that Manziel will enter the draft next April. At this point in time, he would likely be a third-round selection for his sheer athleticism alone and raw upside as a playmaker under a shotgun-themed offense.

Think about it: He would have to battle for position with Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, David Fales and Zach Mettenberger—all who are much more developed players and already have the distinguished tools for success in the NFL.

Manziel needs another year or two under Kevin Sumlin—one of the best quarterback coaches out there—to gain experience, add some build (he's only 6-foot-1, 200 pounds) and continue feeling out SEC defenses to improve his draft stock.

Because as of right now, he’s just another kid that will bring a ton of unwanted media attention with a decent arm and some mobility. Sound familiar?


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5/4/13   |   Tyler_Waddell   |   410 respect

brandrewb wrote:
I don't think I've ever read something quite so stupid: taking A&M's four toughest opponents (and we're talking the SEC's best teams--not the little 12) and then comparing his qb rating on only those games against other qbs' ratings using the average from their entire season--including within that average probably 8 or 9 teams who are no doubt doormats. @ author, were you  just born stupid, or did the doctor drop you on your head when your momma screamed?

1: I like your cowboy hat

2: Nothing to say about the comparisons to NFL QBs?

5/3/13   |   brandrewb

I don't think I've ever read something quite so stupid: taking A&M's four toughest opponents (and we're talking the SEC's best teams--not the little 12) and then comparing his qb rating on only those games against other qbs' ratings using the average from their entire season--including within that average probably 8 or 9 teams who are no doubt doormats. @ author, were you  just born stupid, or did the doctor drop you on your head when your momma screamed?

5/3/13   |   Tyler_Waddell   |   410 respect

jcarter1017 wrote:
You say he wont be a good pro because of his freshman year passer rating?  He played better than RG3 did his junior year!  same with Russell Wilson!

1.  This is Johnny's first year.  He's not going into the NFL this year.  He will improve his deep ball accuracy which is his only real knock as of now in his pro game.   His accuracy is better the season before his final than RG3 or Russell Wilson.  The exact numbers are here on an espn article http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/tag/_/name/johnny-manziel

2. you say "Didn't say he wasn't a great college quarterback. His numbers vs. NFL-like defenses weren't great. That's it. That's all this is about. "  IDK his numbers against Alabama and Miss St were pretty good, half of bamas starting lineup is NFL bound.  Both of Miss St's CBs were drafted on day 1 of the draft this year.   You fail to realize that it was his first season even getting playing time and since that Florida and Ole Miss game were early he was still learning.  The LSU game was the toughest defense he had played since Florida.  After that game you see him progress and crush it against Alabama and Oklahoma (another NFL caliber defense) - so this whole point is off

3. Next year, I guarentee he plays an even better season because A&M is doing nothing but focusing on improving on his weakness, which now is basically only his deep accuracy, which isn't even too bad.

When did I say he won't be a good pro? I said he needs 2-3 more years to develop. He's not ready right now, and he most likely won't be ready after this season. You're comparing his STATS with RGIII and Wilson. Stats. Hell, Brady Quinn put up great stats.

P.S. Oklahoma does not have anywhere near an NFL caliber defense. Bad pass rush, couldn't stop the run and had a flawed secondary.

5/3/13   |   jcarter1017

I'm sorry I typoed I mean Day 2 of the draft (with Miss St's CBs)

5/3/13   |   jcarter1017

You say he wont be a good pro because of his freshman year passer rating?  He played better than RG3 did his junior year!  same with Russell Wilson!

1.  This is Johnny's first year.  He's not going into the NFL this year.  He will improve his deep ball accuracy which is his only real knock as of now in his pro game.   His accuracy is better the season before his final than RG3 or Russell Wilson.  The exact numbers are here on an espn article http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/tag/_/name/johnny-manziel

2. you say "Didn't say he wasn't a great college quarterback. His numbers vs. NFL-like defenses weren't great. That's it. That's all this is about. "  IDK his numbers against Alabama and Miss St were pretty good, half of bamas starting lineup is NFL bound.  Both of Miss St's CBs were drafted on day 1 of the draft this year.   You fail to realize that it was his first season even getting playing time and since that Florida and Ole Miss game were early he was still learning.  The LSU game was the toughest defense he had played since Florida.  After that game you see him progress and crush it against Alabama and Oklahoma (another NFL caliber defense) - so this whole point is off

3. Next year, I guarentee he plays an even better season because A&M is doing nothing but focusing on improving on his weakness, which now is basically only his deep accuracy, which isn't even too bad.

5/3/13   |   Tyler_Waddell   |   410 respect

jmoore26 wrote:
Wow.....just Wow.....Really?.....No, Really ???   ........sigh.......Haters gonna Hate.  I guess we will just have to see how the season plays out.  Comparing apples to oranges - comparing Manziel's numbers in his four toughest games to other QB's numbers for the entire season (cupcakes included) sure makes tons of sense - NOT !  Guess setting season records against SEC league competition was just luck, huh ?  Oh, and yeah, the knock of "only 6' 1" and 200 pounds" even though multiple NFL QB's have been the same or smaller sure is a compelling stat.  Wow. Whatever. Let's see what happens this year...........

Didn't say he wasn't a great college quarterback. His numbers vs. NFL-like defenses weren't great. That's it. That's all this is about. But you are a Texas A&M fan, so I understand your frustration...

5/3/13   |   jmoore26

Wow.....just Wow.....Really?.....No, Really ???   ........sigh.......Haters gonna Hate.  I guess we will just have to see how the season plays out.  Comparing apples to oranges - comparing Manziel's numbers in his four toughest games to other QB's numbers for the entire season (cupcakes included) sure makes tons of sense - NOT !  Guess setting season records against SEC league competition was just luck, huh ?  Oh, and yeah, the knock of "only 6' 1" and 200 pounds" even though multiple NFL QB's have been the same or smaller sure is a compelling stat.  Wow. Whatever. Let's see what happens this year...........