Let's start it off by looking at the NFC.
Division Races
NFC North
Packers 10-1
Lions 6-5
These two teams play again the final week, but having a 4 game lead with 5 left, the Packers could clinch this division as early as this week, if they beat the Cowboys, and if the Lions lose.
NFC South
Buccaneers 7-4
Saints 5-6
Panthers 4-7
Falcons 3-8
The Falcons are pretty much done, so they don't matter. Carolina has a long way to go, and would need to win out just to have any shot. The Buccaneers have a comfortable 2 game lead on the Saints, and play them this week after beating them earlier. A Tampa win would essentially wrap up the division for the Bucs.
NFC East
Cowboys 10-1
Giants 7-4
With Dallas owning the tiebreaker by beating them twice, the Giants would have to win out, and the Cowboys would have to go 1-4 for the Giants to win this division. It's pretty well in hand for the Cowboys.
NFC West
Seahawks 7-4
Cardinals 5-6
49ers 3-8
Arizona's chance of winning this division are still alive, as they won the first meeting, and play Seattle next week. That win would give the Cardinals the tiebreaker, and put them one back. If Seattle wants the division, they'll need to win that one for sure.
Wild Cards
Giants 7-4
Lions 6-5
Eagles 5-6
Redskins 5-6
Cardinals 5-6
Bears 5-6
Vikings 5-6
Saints 5-6
Panthers 4-7
49ers 3-8
Falcons 3-8
The Giants control their own fate, if they can win, they'll be safe. But with them falling apart seemingly, along with the Lions struggling, we could be in for the ultimate cluster(bleep) in this wild card race. 9 teams each still have a realistic shot at 2 spots, and this is going to be fun to watch.
Home-field Advantage
Dallas 10-1
Green Bay 10-1
Obviously, the winner of Thursday's game will likely end up with home-field. It isn't a guarantee, but the losing team would be essentially 2 games back, since the winner would hold the tiebreaker if they ended up the same. No one will stop these teams, however, from both getting the first week off.
There's the NFC, now let's see the battle in the AFC.
Division Races
AFC North
Steelers 8-3
Browns 7-4
Funny that Cincy and Baltimore were the two favorites in this division at seasons' start. The Steelers have a huge advantage in having already beaten Cleveland twice. The Browns are only one loss behind, but they're essentially two games behind. The Browns have a very easy schedule however (toughest game is Buffalo), and Pittsburgh still has the Jaguars and Patriots left. This one could come down to the end.
AFC South
Colts 9-2
Jaguars 8-3
Titans 6-5
Texans 5-6
Tennessee and Houston are really out of reach, it will be a two horse race with the Jags and Colts. The Jaguars have their chance this Sunday to tie it up if they beat the Colts. If the Colts win that game, they take a two game lead and the tiebreaker, which will seal it for them barring a collapse.
AFC East
Patriots 11-0. (First team to have clinched a division)
We all know the Patriots are insanely good, but the rest of their division is insanely awful, helping in their early clinch.
AFC West
Chargers 6-5
Broncos 5-6
Chiefs 4-7
Raiders 3-8
This division is anyone's bet. The Raiders are highly doubtful to come back, but the Chiefs if they wake up still have a shot if they beat the Chargers this week, (KC won earlier this year) and Denver next week. San Diego beat Denver earlier big, and they still play later in the year. The Chargers could pull away if they can start winning, but I wouldn't be surprised if the winner of the AFC West is 8-8.
Wild Card
Jaguars 8-3
Browns 7-4
Titans 6-5
Denver 5-6
Houston 5-6
Buffalo 5-6
Bengals 4-7
Ravens 4-7
Chiefs 4-7
The Jaguars are in pretty good shape, since the closest to losing a spot is 2 games away. They split with the Titans this year, so if they can keep it going, they'll be safe. The Browns have to worry a bit more on Tennessee and other teams, but with such a weak schedule to finish, it won't be easy for any of the 5-6 teams to have a shot.
Home-field Advantage (First week bye)
Patriots 11-0
Colts 9-3
Steelers 8-4
Jaguars 8-4 (If they take division lead)
Browns 7-5 (If they take division lead)
It's pretty safe to assume that the Patriots will get the 1 seed and ultimate advantage. But the other first week bye is anyone's guess. The Colts have it now, but they only lead the Steelers by a game, and if Jacksonville beats them, it complicates things more. Indy has a tougher finishing schedule overall, but it could be very close and come down to the very end.
There you have it. Each week, we'll update you on the playoff race as we head toward Super Bowl XLII.
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