This season has been unique for many different reasons, but one of the strangest ones is that even with a fourth of the season remaining, the division winners are pretty much decided. The closest any second place team is from the division leader they're chasing is 2 games! Either way, let's look, starting with the NFC.
NFC North
Green Bay 10-2
Detroit 6-6
Green Bay has this division locked up, unless they lose their last four, and the Lions win their last four.
NFC South
Tampa Bay 8-4
Carolina 5-7
New Orleans 5-7
Another division where the leading team would have to utterly collapse. A Tampa win and a Carolina loss clinches it this week.
NFC East
Dallas 11-1 (Clinched Division)
NFC West
Seahawks 8-4
Arizona 6-6
This appears the only NFC division that could still change. If the Cardinals win this week, that puts them one game back WITH the tiebreaker, keeping them very alive. However, a Seattle win would clinch them the division.
Wild Card
New York 8-4
Arizona 6-6
Detroit 6-6
Minnesota 6-6
Carolina 5-7
New Orleans 5-7
Chicago 5-7
Washington 5-7
Philadelphia 5-7
It appears that 5 of the NFC's 6 spots are almost already set. New York would have to fall apart to drop a wild card spot. Going 2-2 should cement them in. But half of the NFC still has a shot at the one remaining spot. And who will emerge? I have no freaking idea.
Home-field Advantage and First Round Bye
Dallas 11-1 (holds tiebreaker)
Green Bay 10-2
Tampa Bay 8-4
Seattle 8-4
With Dallas beating Green Bay last Thursday, that gives them a major leg up on the #1 spot, meaning that Green Bay would have to finish a full game above Dallas. Dallas is in pretty good shape to at least get the #2 seed, provided they don't fall apart.
Now we look at the AFC.
AFC North
Pittsburgh 9-3
Cleveland 7-5
With the Steelers having both wins over Cleveland, the Steelers are safe as long as they win two of their remaining four games. (Assuming Cleveland wins out, which I doubt will happen)
AFC South
Indianapolis 10-2
Jacksonville 8-4
Tennessee 7-5
With Indy beating the Jaguars twice this year, they have a very similar situation to the Steelers above. If the Colts win, and the Jags lose this week, they can clinch as early as this Sunday.
AFC East
Patriots 12-0 (Clinched division)
AFC West
San Diego 7-5
Denver 5-7
Oakland 4-8
Kansas City 4-8
San Diego doesn't appear great, but the rest of the division is even worse. Denver plays SD in week 16, and that is pretty much their only chance to catch the Chargers.
Wild Card
Jacksonville 8-4
Cleveland 7-5
Tennessee 7-5
Buffalo 6-6
Denver 5-7
Houston 5-7
Jacksonville and Tennessee could be interesting, as they split the season series. If Tennessee beats Indy week 17, they own the tiebreaker. If not, it could get confusing, but the Jags have the key of being a game up.
With Cleveland, it will come down to conference records if they tie with Jacksonville or Tennessee, with JAX/CLE/TEN being the order of conference records right now. The Browns certainly have an easy path, with the Jets, Bengals, and 49ers on their schedule, much easier than what either Jacksonville or Tennessee has. But their other game is Buffalo, in week 15. If the Bills win, they could launch themselves in to this race.
Home-Field and First Week Bye
New England 12-0 (hold tiebreaker)
Indianapolis 10-2
Pittsburgh 9-3
Provided they don't have a historic collapse, the Patriots have the 1 seed in the bag. The two seed is still a battle with Indy and Pittsburgh. Their conference records are very close, so tiebreakers could be fun if they ended equal. Pittsburgh has a tougher road, with at NE, Jacksonville, at Baltimore and at St. Louis in comparison to Indy's schedule of at Baltimore, at Oakland, and home against Tennessee and Houston.
Well, that's how it's shaping up. We'll check back next week to see if any confusion in the wild card races has been resolved.
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