The five most unpredictable first-round prospects of the NFL Draft
However, there are some players in the draft that are even more unpredictable than others. Whether it be due to character concerns, injury history, or poor workouts, some players end up being slotted all over the place in mock drafts. Here is a list of the five likely first-round prospects whose landing spots are among the most unpredictable in the draft:
(I did not include quarterbacks, because that entire position as a whole is completely unpredictable in this draft)
Chance Warmack (OG, Alabama) and Jonathan Cooper (OG, UNC): It will be extremely interesting to see where these two end up. Warmack was considered by some analysts to be the best overall prospect in the entire draft. The problem, however, is that NFL franchises simply do not value guards nearly as much as they value other positions. If a team wants to go with a "best player available" strategy, Warmack could come off the board early. If teams prefer to go the route of filling what they deem to be their most important positions, Warmack could begin to slip.
What makes this even more interesting is that a lot of NFL personnel men consider Cooper to be the superior guard prospect. Even if one team decides to reach for one of these top guards, the other player could still be in for a free fall. I could see one of these two players going to the Cardinals at 7th overall, but I wouldn't be all that surprised to see one of them drop into the 20's.
Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia): Ogletree's game tape is phenomenal. He covers the entire field easily and excels in pass coverage. He's a solid tackler who can drop the hammer on ball carriers. He is Scouts Inc.'s 13th overall prospect. The issue with Ogletree is that teams seriously question his off-field habits. Ogletree was charged with a DUI shortly before the 2013 NFL Combine. He was suspended in 2012 for violating unspecified team rules. He was also arrested and suspended as a freshman for stealing a motor-scooter helmet. With players like Rolando McClain causing headaches for franchises lately, teams will likely be wary of Ogletree's troublesome past.
Before the DUI, I liked Ogletree going to the Bills at 8th overall. I still think it is a good fit from a talent and need perspective, but I understand that teams don't want to risk a high draft pick on a player with character concerns. I have him going to the Giants at 19th overall in my latest mock draft, but there is a chance that he slips out of the first round.
Manti Te'o (LB, Notre Dame): You knew he was going to be on this list. Everything I said about Ogletree - Te'o is basically the opposite. Te'o was reportedly sensational in team interviews. He's a hard worker and a natural leader, and teams obviously love that about him. However, teams also question his ability to play at the speed of the NFL game. His straight line speed is certainly below average (4.82 forty at both the combine and his Pro Day), but he's quicker than he is fast, and his great instincts help him make up for his lack of speed.
According to ESPN's Chris Mortensen, "at least half the teams" have a first-round grade on Te'o. That being said, I've also heard that one team has dropped Te'o from their draft board altogether. I could see Te'o going as early as 19th overall to the Giants, with the Bears, Vikings, and Broncos as possible landing spots later in the first round. I have Te'o dropping out of the first in my mock draft, but I'm starting to think that the Ravens at 32nd overall is his most likely landing spot.