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12/1/08
Tim Tebow And Colt McCoy; Are They NFL Ready?
Should Colt McCoy And Tim Tebow Really Be Thinking About The NFL Already?

Two of the country's top college quarterbacks will have a difficult decision to make in the coming months. Should they take advantage of their highly successful college careers and parlay them into an attempt to carve out a career in the NFL? Or should they wait another year, play in college for their 4th season, take another crack at a National Championship and use the time to develop into a more polished NFL prospect?

For some, the choice is easy: take the money and run. Literally, in the case of mobile quarterbacks Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy. But in the long run, that may not be the best choice, based on their potential impact as NFL players.

While some ranked Tebow as the #1 NFL draft prospect earlier in the year and have nothing but excellent things to say about him, others aren't totally on the Tebow bandwagon as an NFL QB prospect. A couple years ago, Gregg Doyel wrote about how Vince Young wasn't going to be a great NFL quarterback, and so far he has been right on the money. Now he's saying the same about Tim Tebow.

Colt McCoy is another guy who conjures up Vince Young's name. Not because he is the elite runner that Vince was (and Tebow is), but because he was Young's replacement at the University of Texas. McCoy is also someone who could be headed to an NFL team near you in 2009. McCoy is seeking guidance from those around him, and putting out feelers to find out where he might fall in the draft. Only a month ago, he was set on staying in Texas for his senior year.

Is it a good idea for Tebow and McCoy to skip their senior years and move on to the NFL? Sure, if the money is the only concern. Whether he deserves it or not, Tebow will be taken pretty high in the draft, and will collect his payday. But Tim Tebow isn't exactly someone always enamored with money. He's known for his missionary work and his religious upbringing is one that emphasizes things other than money. Tebow has expressed an interest in graduating, so it's possible that he's not even considering an early exit at this point. That's probably for the best, as his talents and skill set simply do not translate well to the NFL game.

Tebow's a great college QB. There's no mistaking that. He's in the running for a 2nd straight Heisman, and could be the first player ever to contend for a third. But does that automatically mean he'll succeed in the NFL? No matter how dominant he is against college players, even in the SEC, where they play some of the best football in the country, Tebow is no lock for NFL greatness as a QB. He's not even a lock for NFL averageness. If anything, it's more likely that he'll end up like some of his Gator predecessors such as Danny Wuerffel and Steve Spurrier, who were excellent in college but flopped in the pros. Tebow's a much different style of QB, but he has about the same pro potential.

What makes the defending Heisman Trophy winner so unappealing at the next level, you ask? It's really all about touch. He's got great speed for a QB, coming in at around 4.5 in the 40. He's got a ton of huge passing numbers, and there's no doubt that he has a strong arm. But as we've seen from guys like Michael Vick (and we're seeing and will continue to see from JaMarcus Russell), a strong arm is only the beginning. Vick was known for his speed, and was significantly faster than Tebow. But what many people forget is that he also had one of the strongest arms in the NFL. Not the most accurate, however, so it really didn't matter. The spaghetti-armed Chad Pennington has had a better career. Not because of Vick's legal troubles, but because Chad is more accurate.

Tebow is in a similar boat. Good arm, but he isn't capable of threading the needle, or of placing the ball in the receivers arms when he launches it downfield. He has still been effective, mostly thanks to elite WR's like Percy Harvin, who can hide a lot of mistakes by a QB with his ridiculous speed. But as a pure passer, Tebow simply isn't the best option out there, or even close to it, no matter what Jerry Jones says.

College football news described him as an Alex Smith with talent. While that was meant to be a compliment, and a justification for their ranking of Tebow as the #1 NFL draft prospect, it's a scary thought. Alex Smith DID have talent. He's a better pure passer than Tebow, and was also mobile while playing under Urban Meyer at Utah... the same Urban Meyer who currently coaches Tebow at Florida. If he's another Alex Smith, then is this really someone on which a team would want to waste a first round pick? I would hope not.

He might be better suited as a tight end, and some people even think that his 6'1", 235 pound frame would be more ideal at the fullback position.  These make a bit more sense than QB, really. While he's doing well at Florida, that won't continue if and when he moves on to the NFL. Antwaan Randle-El made a successful transition to WR after playing QB in college, and Tebow may have to make a similar transition if he hopes to succeed in the long term.

As for McCoy, the situation is slightly different. At 6'3" and 210 pounds, he has pretty much ideal size to play QB. He has the numbers in college, and if he stays another year, he will have been a 4 year starter at one of the premier football schools in the country. Previous Mack Brown Era Texas QB's who have enjoyed NFL success are... exactly. Vince Young was a bust, no matter how many people want to try and justify his potential. The last Texas QB to be drafted high and succeed in the NFL was Bobby Layne, back in 1948. Not that Colt can't break the mold, but it's obvious that the talent of guys around him, like Limas Sweed, Jamaal Charles and now Jordan Shipley have had a huge impact on Colt's success.

His gaudy 77.6% completion rating this year isn't the result of his superb passing. While there's no denying that it has indeed been superb, Colt hasn't exactly been dropping bombs 40-50 yards downfield with great regularity. The elusiveness of guys like Jordan Shipley and and Quan Crosby has gained them plenty of yards after catch, padding McCoy's stats considerably. This isn't to say that he's the only QB who benefits from quality WR's. Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell might benefit even more, due to the nature of their spread offense, and the insane abilities of Michael Crabtree.

McCoy's stats are inflated much like those of guys like Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger's early in their NFL careers, when they were consistently throwing short, high-percentage passes. McCoy is doing the same thing at Texas. While it may be successful here, it's not going to turn him into an elite NFL QB. Is this to say that McCoy could never be that kind of QB? No, not exactly. But another year at Texas would definitely benefit him before he gets thrown to the wolves in the NFL, and thrown on the bench.

McCoy's other problem is his propensity to run. While it's impressive that he's leading the Longhorns in rushing yards, it's also a bit disconcerting. While he's somewhat quick for a QB, that speed advantage that he has in college will evaporate if/when he moves on to the NFL. At the risk of sounding clichéd, there are 300-lb linemen in the NFL who are just as fast. If he tries to turn the corner on a hybrid defender like Adalius Thomas, he will get absolutely destroyed.

Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow are two excellent college QB's. With a little work and a little luck, there's definitely a chance that they could become very good NFL players, even if they have to switch positions to do it. But for now, it's probably best that they put aside thoughts of an early entrance into the NFL Draft, and stay in school. Go for (another) Heisman, and make another run at a National Championship, and enjoying dominating your opponents while you still can. Because once you go to the NFL, that time will abruptly come to an end.
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214 days ago
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Yes they definitely should. There is a drought of good NFL QB's right now.
 
214 days ago
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Great write up....I think that McCoy translates better in the NFL but That being said Tebow has a Heisman (at least one) and a Championship ( at least one ) he really has nothing left to accomplish in college. My advice to him would be to go this year and get that 1st round money. there is to many things that can happen injury wise so get the money while it is guaranteed. As far as Colt goes it depends on how important the college ship is for him. If its not top priority go to the next level I'm sure he would go mid to high first round as well.
 
 
214 days ago
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Tim Tebow is a guaranteed bust.  Its easy to look good when your defense consistently gives you the ball at the opponents 35 and all you have to do is throw a screen to Percy Harvin and have him take it all the way.  The fact the Tebow is even in Heisman contention is nothing short of laughable.  Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, Graham Harrell, Chase Daniel, Zac Robinson, and Todd Reesing have all had better or comparable seasons to Tebow and thats just QBs from the Big XII.

Anyway...  Tebow will be a bust, because he is Alex Smith.  An athlete with some talent coached up in a great system by Urban Meyer.  Its unlikely Urban Meyer will ever produce a good NFL QB, buts that not his job.
 
214 days ago
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I've said it before (here), so I'll say it again. NOBODY knows who's going to be a successful NFL quarterback unless their father is named Manning, and even Eli's success was problematic for a long time. College pass defense is simply not up to the execution and talent level of the NFL. IMHO the most important qualities for a pro quarterback are rapid decision-making and accuracy at a very high level. These things just don't get tested adequately in the college game. So the unfortunate fact is that Joe Blow from Nowheresville U might be a better pro quarterback than either Tebow or McCoy and he won't be first-round pick or cost a zillion bucks.
 
214 days ago
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I'm a NEW fan of College Football - live in Canada, never thought to watch it before - and I was pretty impressed with Tebow's performance on Saturday.  (I was also pretty unimpressed with Rothlisberger's performance yesterday.)  However, I'll watch a bunch more games before I'll throw in my "expert" advice to either of them.  It depends on each one of them, just as Pat says, and what they want out of College.  It may just be that they want an education. 
 
214 days ago
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(Edited 12/02/08 9:13PM by Craig_M)
this is this reason why i'm leary of system qbs.the spread offense along w/the running abilities of vy,tebow,mccoy,etc is absolutely not a guarantee they will succeed in the nfl.theyre talent just doesnt translate over into the next level.
 
214 days ago
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It's about 99.9% that Tebow will stay at Florida, he's said as much at least 100 times this season and pre-season.  And I think that McCoy will go into the NFL because some dumbass will tell him he's a guaranteed Top 10 pick, which will make him an even bigger dumbass for believing him.  As far as projecting either of these guys... who really knows?!

Tebow has the attitude and work ethic to attempt to make it as a QB but is probably better suited as a WR/TE that can throw on trick plays and run in the "Wildcat" formation.  I think that ultimatley he'll be a contrubuter for somebody in the NFL.

I don't see McCoy as being fast enough to play another position, or smart enough to realize he needs to make that trasition in the NFL.  I really think that his skills as a QB are pretty limited, and as Pat pointed out, is more a product of the talent at Texas than him being a talented QB.
 
214 days ago
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kantwistaye wrote:
Tim Tebow is a guaranteed bust.  Its easy to look good when your defense consistently gives you the ball at the opponents 35 and all you have to do is throw a screen to Percy Harvin and have him take it all the way.  The fact the Tebow is even in Heisman contention is nothing short of laughable.  Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, Graham Harrell, Chase Daniel, Zac Robinson, and Todd Reesing have all had better or comparable seasons to Tebow and thats just QBs from the Big XII.

Anyway...  Tebow will be a bust, because he is Alex Smith.  An athlete with some talent coached up in a great system by Urban Meyer.  Its unlikely Urban Meyer will ever produce a good NFL QB, buts that not his job.
Don't get me wrong I'm not a Tebow fan at all, but the bottom line is if he leaves this year he will go at least in the top ten if he makes it past KC or Detroit in the Draft I would be surprised.  If he does decide to stay and Colt goes to the draft he WILL be a top ten pick , to many teams picking early need QB help and he will be the best in the draft if he enters.  Weather either one of them make it or not is a crap shoot, but there is millions waiting if they enter this year. So why not go the worst case scenario they pull a Ryan Leaf and leave the NFL as another never was but with plenty of money and time to get their degree.
 
214 days ago
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brianmc0331 wrote:
Don't get me wrong I'm not a Tebow fan at all, but the bottom line is if he leaves this year he will go at least in the top ten if he makes it past KC or Detroit in the Draft I would be surprised.  If he does decide to stay and Colt goes to the draft he WILL be a top ten pick , to many teams picking early need QB help and he will be the best in the draft if he enters.  Weather either one of them make it or not is a crap shoot, but there is millions waiting if they enter this year. So why not go the worst case scenario they pull a Ryan Leaf and leave the NFL as another never was but with plenty of money and time to get their degree.
I don't think that McCoy is a better QB than Daniels, Reesing, or Harrell, and you can make a case for Jake Locker, Pat White and Mark Sanchez going ahead of McCoy.  I think that he'll be a 1st round pick but I really think that a Top 10 pick is out of reach for him.  Once you look at him on tape he's not nearlly as impressive as his numbers indicate, he's very lucky to play on such a talented team because he's really an above average college QB.
 
214 days ago
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As big of an OU fan as I am, I would love nothing more than to see McCoy leave...and take Will Muschamp somewhere else too.
 
214 days ago
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I think the single biggest factor of Pro success for a QB is:
Decision Making
I think Colt's 77% completion rate demonstrates this.  He will go pro this year, and I hope he'll be a Chief.
 
214 days ago
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kantwistaye wrote:
Tim Tebow is a guaranteed bust.  Its easy to look good when your defense consistently gives you the ball at the opponents 35 and all you have to do is throw a screen to Percy Harvin and have him take it all the way.  The fact the Tebow is even in Heisman contention is nothing short of laughable.  Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, Graham Harrell, Chase Daniel, Zac Robinson, and Todd Reesing have all had better or comparable seasons to Tebow and thats just QBs from the Big XII.

Anyway...  Tebow will be a bust, because he is Alex Smith.  An athlete with some talent coached up in a great system by Urban Meyer.  Its unlikely Urban Meyer will ever produce a good NFL QB, buts that not his job.
Anyone who breaks out the tired line about Tebow throwing screen passes either hasn't watched him play or isn't paying attention. He throws a pretty accurate deep ball. Those 40-yard completions he makes consistently don't all come from yards-after-the-catch.

It's true, he may very well end up being a bust in the NFL. Who knows? Florida's quarterbacks haven't had much success there. But if there's one thing I've learned watching him the past three years, it's this: don't underestimate him.


 
214 days ago
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I think they both should STAY.
 
213 days ago
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Both Tebow and McCoy are system QB's.  Tebow is a product of a Spread Offense, and McCoy is a product of a One Read Offense.  I do not know if either will be a success in the NFL, but I do know they will have a higher learning curve than a QB that runs a pro orienated offense in college, aka Matt Ryan and Joe Flaco.  Hey, if anyone wants to try to compare how either QB will succeed in the NFL, then look at Alex Smith and Vince Young.   
 
213 days ago
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RenegadeLG wrote:
According to a pre-draft interview I just read, they did run a pro-style offense. Still, considering the teams faced, it's still surprising his transition has been this seamless.
I think that he's been pretty impressive considering where he came from too.  But it helps to have the Ravens D backing him up if he makes any mistakes.
 
213 days ago
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JHOLE wrote:
I think the single biggest factor of Pro success for a QB is:
Decision Making
I think Colt's 77% completion rate demonstrates this.  He will go pro this year, and I hope he'll be a Chief.
sad news for ya, McCoy def stay another year for Texas for his senior, so he does not think abt nfl future. he think abt championship.
 
213 days ago
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Not sure if anyone has mentioned this yet, but the owners are trying to set up an NBA-style salary cap for rookies. It could happen as soon as 2009. If that's the case, then Colt, Tebow, Bradford and all others with a legit shot at the first couple rounds ought to go and get their money this year, whether they're ready to play or not.
Here's an interesting story on it sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story
 
 
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