UFC 146 Odds and Predictions

The UFC's All Heavyweight Card: Can Mir Dethrone Dos Santos?

5/24/12 in MMA   |   GeorgeMon   |   159 respect

The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s long awaited heavyweight showcase finally arrives this Saturday, with UFC 146. The card has had a tumultuous ride over the last two months with the withdrawal of Alistair Overeem, who tested positive for elevated testosterone levels.

Many of the match ups, on the all heavy weight main card, have been mixed and matched since the UFC had to pull Frank Mir from the undercard to face Dos Santos. The fights remain compelling never the less, so let's take a look at the card and make a few observations and predictions

February 4, 2012; Las Vegas, NV, USA; UFC fighter Roy Nelson is blooded up during the fight against Fabrico Werdum during UFC 143 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center. Fabrico Werdum defeated Roy Nelson. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-US PRESSWIRE
Roy Nelson is a strong favorite heading into this fight with Dave Hermen

Roy Nelson (-220) vs. Dave Herman (+180): Roy is coming into this bout, against the upstart Herman, having lost three of his last four fights. Nelson badly needs a win if he is going to regain his footing in the heavyweight division and become more than just a gate keeper.

Herman on the other hand has won three of his last four fights, but is coming off a 2nd round TKO loss to Stefan Struve. Herman is young and still relatively green as a fighter. This fight is his chance to prove he belongs with the big fish of the division.

Herman is very capable of winning this fight, but it probably won’t be by knock out, since Nelson has faced some of the best strikers in the division and always left the octagon standing. This fight is going to come down to Nelson’s cardio. If he comes into the fight in poor shape like his last few outings, Herman can win a decision. But if Roy comes into the fight in shape and ready to go for three rounds, there is no reason why he shouldn’t win this fight. Prediction: Nelson by 2nd round KO.

Cain Velasquez (-380) vs. Antonio Silva (+280): The former UFC Heavyweight champ Velasquez has not fought since his 1st round TKO loss to Dos Santos back in November, which was the first loss of his career. Who knows if there will be any lingering psychological issues when he enters the octagon on Saturday, but either way this is Cain’s fight to lose.
Nov 12, 2011; Anaheim, CA, USA; Cain Velasquez enters the ring before fighting Junior Dos Santos (not pictured) before the UFC championship bout at the Honda Center. Velasquez was defeated by knockout. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE
Cain is ready to get back on track after his first round loss to Dos Santos

Silva is a very capable striker with knock out power and is behemoth of man, standing at 6’4’ and could weigh over 280 lbs on fight night. The problem with Silva is that he is not the most athletic heavyweight in the division and lumbers around the octagon like a tree trunk. Cain should be able to take this fight were ever he wants, and unless he gets caught by a big punch, will impose his skill set on Silva for a late fight knockout. Prediction: Velasquez by 2nd round KO via some heavy ground and pound.

Junior Dos Santos (-500) vs. Frank Mir (+350): This may not have been the main event that the UFC was originally hoping for, but it is still a blockbuster fight with no shortage of storylines. Mir has defeated Minotauro Nogueira, Dos Santos’ trainer and mentor, twice since 2008 and broke his arm in their most recent fight at UFC 140. Dos Santos claims that revenge will not be a factor in this fight, but it’s hard to believe that it is not creeping in the back of his mind somewhere. Mir viciously broke Nogueira’s arm- it’s difficult to forget something like that.

Nov 12, 2011; Anaheim, CA, USA; Junior Dos Santos (white trunks) and Cain Velasquez square off during a UFC championship bout at the Honda Center. Dos Santos won by knockout. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE
Dos Santos defeated Velasquez at UFC on Fox to become the heavyweight champion.

Mir is a live underdog in this fight. If he can get Dos Santos to the ground (easier said than done) he should be able to submit or at least wear down the Champ. Dos Santos has never been taken to the ground, and even though he trains with the Nogueira brothers, his ground game is still questionable.

This fight is more about Mir than it is about Dos Santos. We know what Junior is capable of, but the big question will be weather Mir can stick to his game plan of boxing Dos Santos from the outside and trying to take the fight to the ground. Mir has always had a tendency to let his ego get the best of him when he decides to stand and trade blows but the division’s elite strikers. That plan may have worked against Kongo and Cro Cop, but standing in the middle of the octagon with Dos Santos will not work. Prediction: as much as I would love to pick Mir, Dos Santos is just on another level. Dos Santos by 1st round KO.
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5/24/12   |   scquwi1   |   1232 respect

Of course Frank Mir can beat Dos Santos. but we rally do not know which Frank Mir we will get. Hopefully both we come to fight and it will be very entertianing.