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12/5/08
Utah and Boise State Played More Difficult Schedules Than Alabama Did
Do Utah And Boise State Deserve National Title Consideration?

Where is the love for Utah and Boise State? Believe it or not both teams have a more difficult strength of schedule than number one ranked Alabama. Alabama’s strength of schedule (SOS) is ranked 79th by CBS. Utah is ranked considerably better at 56th and Boise State is pretty similar to Alabama at 76th. As we all know, Alabama will be playing Florida for the SEC title and effectively a shot at the national title. Yet, Utah and Boise State, also with perfect records, have no shot at the national title. Obviously, this doesn’t seem the slightest bit fair.

Do Utah and Boise State really have tougher schedules and resumes than Alabama though? Well, first let’s establish the quality of Alabama’s schedule. Overall, the record of the teams Alabama played is 66-76 (46.4%) and they played no Division I-AA teams. Certainly on that alone, we can recognize that there have been more impressive schedules. Alabama also played six teams that are eligible for bowl games. That’s about half of their schedule, which isn’t too bad. However, only two of those teams had 8 wins or more. To me, 6 or 7 win seasons aren’t too impressive. As evidence I present Notre Dame (6-6) and Wisconsin (7-5.) To Alabama’s credit, they defeated their toughest opponent (Georgia) on the road.

Utah’s combined opponent’s record was 73-72 (50.3%), but that does include a win over Division I-AA Weber State. I think we can agree that their opponents' record was more impressive than Alabama’s. However, Utah only played five bowl eligible teams and one team who advanced to the second round of the DI-AA playoffs (novel idea, playoffs!) Most of Utah’s strength of schedule actually comes from their conference wins. Utah did beat 4 different teams with 8 or more wins this season, including one out of conference. They beat 8-4 Air Force on the road and defeated 10-2 TCU and 10-2 Brigham Young at home. The Utes also defeated Oregon State, who could still slip into the Rose Bowl, at home. Overall, their schedule does seem to be a bit more impressive than Alabama’s, even though they are found in the bottom half of the Top 5 in the polls.

Boise’s State schedule, when further looked at, does not really look much more impressive than Alabama’s. Their combined opponent’s record is 64-80 (44.4%) and that includes one victory over a D-IAA team. Boise State’s top win is over 9-3 Oregon in Eugene. Outside of that, Boise State doesn’t have a single win over a team with more than 7 wins. Boise State’s schedule is full of 7-5 and 6-6 teams and then a few really bad bottom feeders. The Broncos did play 8 bowl eligible teams though, which is by far most of the three. Bowl eligible teams actually make up 75% of their schedule which is quite impressive. However, Boise State’s schedule is still the epitome of average.

What this really shows us is the power of name value. Obviously the names Alabama and SEC carry more weight than Utah, MWC, Boise State, or WAC carry. Unfortunately, this appears to be the only thing holding back the Utes and Broncos from contending from a title this year. If an undefeated Alabama with their schedule is worthy of playing in the national championship (and they are), then why aren’t Utah and Boise State? Clearly the only way to get over this bias that we’ve developed is to let the teams decide it on the field. However, that doesn’t appear to be happening soon anytime as ESPN’s new contract with the BCS means it will be around until 2014. I guess that just means that Utah and Boise State will have to wait until then to be actually taken seriously.
46 comments
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12/5/08
10
"plus alabama is undefeated why the hell would utah or boise be playing in the bcs national championship..."

Ummm... because they're undefeated as well, maybe?

12/5/08
1
I love how you mentioned ESPN's new contract with the BCS.  I find it ironic that ESPN is highly critical of the BCS format, yet signs an extended contract with very little negotiation to fix the flawed process.

12/5/08
1
They sure do!  Undefeated is undefeated - but hey, when Oklahoma when ranked over Texas...

12/5/08
1

Hard to compare these teams when Alabama could still pick up a loss, but if the Tide beats Florida, their strength of schedule will certainly jump Boise State's and come a lot closer to Utah's. And a win over Florida alone is a better win than any of Boise or Utah's wins. So I would certainly take Alabama over either of those two teams.

And, yes I feel a little dirty backing an SEC team.


12/5/08
0
Oh yeah, where's the Ball State love?

12/5/08
4
Boise State and Ball State, along with Utah, have every right to be involved in the National  Championship. the BCS is designed to keep the SEC teams involved evey year. Why does Florida deserve to play for the title over USC, or Texas, or Texas Tech? How about this scenario....Florida beats 'Bama, Missouri beats Oklahoma, leaving the Broncos, Utes, and Cardinals all undefeated, and 1-loss teams in the Longhorns, Red Raiders, Trojans, oh, and yes, 1-loss Big Ten Champion Penn State!!  THE BCS SUCKS!!

12/5/08
2
Seth wrote:
Oh yeah, where's the Ball State love?
Well, its hard to defend the 116th most difficult schedule in the nation.  I think there is only like 119 D-IA teams in the nation.

12/5/08
1
this is a ridiculous article. the reason these teams that boise st and utah play are better is because in the wac and mountain west conference theres always a few good teams, and than the rest are just trash plus alabama is undefeated why the hell would utah or boise be playing in the bcs national championship...

12/5/08
10
"plus alabama is undefeated why the hell would utah or boise be playing in the bcs national championship..."

Ummm... because they're undefeated as well, maybe?

12/5/08
5
colbyjames36 wrote:
this is a ridiculous article. the reason these teams that boise st and utah play are better is because in the wac and mountain west conference theres always a few good teams, and than the rest are just trash plus alabama is undefeated why the hell would utah or boise be playing in the bcs national championship...
I'm going to guess your definition of 'trash' would include teams whose records are 2-10 (Tulane), 2-9 (Western Kentucky), 4-8 (Mississippi State), and 5-7 (Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas).  There's six wins.  Toss in mighty Arkansas State and they have seven.  Add woefully inept Kentucky and there's eight.  Yeah, the Tide had some easy victories this year.  Is the SEC's trash better than the WAC's trash and the Mountain West's trash?  Probably.  But that's like pitting rotten tomatoes against rotten potatoes.  Who cares?  Although it's the mighty Southeastern Conference, it fielded plenty of mediocre-to-poor outfits this year.

Still, I'm an SEC partisan, and still, I'll take 'Bama's wins over Clemson, Georgia, and LSU (all on the road) as very solid resume-builders.  As it turns out, Ole Miss was pretty good, too.  But it's not like Alabama has played an extraordinary schedule; something that would separate them from the likes of Utah and Boise State by innumerable degrees.  Do I think Alabama would eat Utah's lunch or Boise State's lunch?  I do, because I think top-flight SEC athletes overwhelm top-flight mid-major athletes (i.e., GA/Hawaii last year).  This is football, not basketball, and here, everything is about athleticism.  But should the Utah's and Boise State's be denied their spotlights just because their matchups against the big boys may not look so good?  Absolutely not.  Every once in a great while, Boise State beats Oklahoma.  (Sorry, Nick.)

12/5/08
3
It sucks, and we'll never really know. I haven't seen much of Boise State, but I've seen a ton of Ball State and I think they'd get beaten badly by the Oklahoma's of the world. As for Utah, I've watched a ton of their games as I'm a Colorado State guy, and I'm fully convinced they can play with anybody. Anyway, it is what it is and this why we need a playoff system.

12/5/08
0
And Ball State's losing to Buffalo.

12/5/08
0
sharapovasthigh wrote:
And Ball State's losing to Buffalo.
I'm starting a band and naming it "Sharapova's Thigh".  That.Is.Awesome.

12/5/08
0
sharapovasthigh wrote:
And Ball State's losing to Buffalo.
Wow... they better win that, or they'll look really dumb for passing up the bowl game with Boise State. There's no way they'll get anyone better. So unless they're looking for a guaranteed win against a mediocre opponent, they better hope they win.

12/5/08
0
Pat wrote:
Wow... they better win that, or they'll look really dumb for passing up the bowl game with Boise State. There's no way they'll get anyone better. So unless they're looking for a guaranteed win against a mediocre opponent, they better hope they win.
And as I typed this, Ball State took the lead.

12/5/08
0
Boise needs to play Utah and then the winner can move to the big dance already no we can beat big 12 and pac 10 georgia crushed us a few years back so lets play the winner of Bama/ Gators

12/5/08
0
WOW!  Nate Davis fumbles at the 1, 99 yard fumble return for Buffalo, they regain the lead.

12/5/08
0
Pat wrote:
Wow... they better win that, or they'll look really dumb for passing up the bowl game with Boise State. There's no way they'll get anyone better. So unless they're looking for a guaranteed win against a mediocre opponent, they better hope they win.
I want nothing more than Boise State to get the last BCS bid over Ohio State so my Badgers get stuck in the Motor City Bowl and get blown out by Ball State to knock some damn life back into the program.... except, I don't want to have to put up with that embarassment.

12/5/08
1
It's not a national championship opportunity, but it looks like Utah will get a shot at either Bama or Florida in the Sugar Bowl (according to all of the bowl projections, at least).  It won't give them the satisfaction of winning the crystal ball, but it would certainly make a statement and maybe open some voter's eyes if they win.

But if they lose, it will make it that much harder for voters to put a Boise State or Utah in the top of the polls just because they go undefeated.  It will be an intriguing game, to say the least.

12/5/08
1
Unreal. Hey Ball State, Braylon Edwards called, he wants his hands back.

12/5/08
1
(Edited by kantwistaye)
Ball State is in huge trouble right now.  That touchdown call may've blown their potential perfect season.

12/5/08
0
I hate the people that do the schedule for these two teams because yes they are undefeated but there schedule is not hard but they are still undefeated so idk but i would give them a chance

12/5/08
0
That blown touchdown call is a game breaker here.  Instead of it being 24-21 Ball State, they are completely on the ropes and being dominated by the Buffalo defense right now

12/5/08
0
its emptier in the first, second, third, and fourth quarter of any lions game this year

12/5/08
0
both boise state and utah deserve it now, but even more if bama loses against florida.

12/5/08
0
Wasn't it just like 2 years ago that Buffalo was the worst or close to the worst football program in the country?

12/5/08
0
Ball State lost and they might be re-thinking that invitation to play Boise and in my opinion they do deserve a chance to play in the BCS games, but I am not sure about the championship game.  Boise has already proven if given the chance they can play with the big boys just ask Oklahoma and that was an incredible game(second half or last quarter)

12/5/08
0
First off great article... For those of you who don't know much about Boise St.  Here is there home record since 1999......50-1...
vs. BCS schools 3-1
vs. PAC 10 3-0
vs. Big 12 1-0
vs ACC 0-1
vs. WAC 31-0
vs MAC 1-0
vs CONF USA 1-0
vs INDEP 1-0
vs SUN BELT 2-0
vs MWC 3-0
vs. 1-aa 5-0
Ball St. made a great decision not to come and play Boise at home if you ask me. WAC champs 6 out of last 7 years, undefeated 2 out of last 3. As far as Boise vs Utah they are 4-2, Utah is the only current MWC team to beat Boise.

Utah and Boise St. are both deserving of a shot. Anyone who thinks otherwise either hasn't see those teams play or is just bias because of the whole non BCS conference. Boise and Utah are both undefeated in BCS games.

12/6/08
0
there just needs to be a playoff system so teams that go undefeated in a weak conference can prove they are for real. but if you ask me boise state deserves SOMETHING. they've been a great hard working team the past 3 years

12/6/08
1
taylordanley wrote:
there just needs to be a playoff system so teams that go undefeated in a weak conference can prove they are for real. but if you ask me boise state deserves SOMETHING. they've been a great hard working team the past 3 years
plus, its hard to root against anybody with a blue turf field

12/6/08
0
Utah deserves a chance at a National championship. The BCS is a broken system. Utah and Boise has been here before and we all hear is the same garbage. There needs to be a national tournament just like we see in Basketball.

12/6/08
2
sharapovasthigh wrote:
Wasn't it just like 2 years ago that Buffalo was the worst or close to the worst football program in the country?
Turner Gill absolutely deserves a chance at a big level school eventually.

12/6/08
0
Utah and Who? 

12/7/08
0

12/7/08
0
Did you know that it's possible to become a BCS conference on the field (well, in the polls).

To do it, you have to bust the BCS four years running, and get more top 25 teams than the BCS conference you bust every one of those years.

The MWC just did it to the Big East this year.  Keep going three more years and they take over the Big East's auto-bid.

12/8/08
0
The author does not use any scientific or statistical measures of strength of schedule comparisons, and instead relies on subjective and anecdotal measures.  Jeff Sagarin runs a highly respected strength of schedule (S-o-S) analysis, using the entire spectrum of 245 NCAA teams.  His final S-o-S ratings are found at

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt08.htm after December 6, 2008 games.  Alabama and Utah are close, but Alabama's S-o-S overall rating, and the most important "Predictor" S-o-S rating are both higher than Utah's.  With close ratings like this, it just depends on intangibles.


12/8/08
0
litigation wrote:
The author does not use any scientific or statistical measures of strength of schedule comparisons, and instead relies on subjective and anecdotal measures.  Jeff Sagarin runs a highly respected strength of schedule (S-o-S) analysis, using the entire spectrum of 245 NCAA teams.  His final S-o-S ratings are found at

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt08.htm after December 6, 2008 games.  Alabama and Utah are close, but Alabama's S-o-S overall rating, and the most important "Predictor" S-o-S rating are both higher than Utah's.  With close ratings like this, it just depends on intangibles.

This was also written before the SEC Championship game. Before that game, Utah's SoS was ahead of Alabama.

 
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