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UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre 2 (Preview and Predictions)
4/19/08

We are set for the biggest grudge match since last October, when middleweight champion Anderson Silva knocked out Rich Franklin for the second time in a year, this time in Franklin’s hometown of Cincinnati. Matt Serra shocked the world last year with his monumental upset via first round knockout of Georges St. Pierre, an extremely athletic fighter that seemed almost unbeatable at welterweight at the time. Here we are a year later, and St. Pierre again looks unbeatable, coming off of his lopsided win over welterweight legend Matt Hughes last December. Serra is relishing the underdog role, and it looks like we are in line for yet another great fight to unify the welterweight championship of the world.

Aside from the welterweight title fight, the UFC 83 card showcases the middleweight division, with six fights on the card that will be fought at 185 pounds. It’s entirely possible that a challenger for Silva’s middleweight crown could be found on Saturday night, but it’s just as possible that the fights will show why this is arguably the weakest division in the UFC. Let’s get started with the preview (fights in bold are on the main card).



WW: Kuniyoshi Hironaka (11-4) vs. Jonathan Goulet (21-9) – Hironaka has been knocked out in three of his four losses, and the well-rounded Goulet has decent enough hands to knock him out in the middle round.

HW: Brad Morris (9-2) vs. Cain Velasquez (2-0) – Both of these fighters are hot prospects, but Morris has the definite experience advantage. Morris is an Australian fighter with a win over UFC veteran Kristof Midoux last year, and Velasquez is a fighter out of American Kickboxing Academy with a lot of praise already heaped upon him. Good thing for Velasquez that he isn’t facing the most experienced fighter in this fight, because he may have some Octagon jitters before he knocks Morris out near the end of the first round.

LW: Rich "No Love" Clementi (30-12-1) vs. Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout (13-3-1) – Both of these fighters are highly touted in the UFC’s lightweight division, and this fight is to weed out one of the contenders in a cloudy title picture. Stout is a Canadian who trains with Shawn Tompkins, and his nickname “Hands of Stone” says it all about his fighting style. Clementi is a well-rounded fighter, but he’s more comfortable on the ground. This will be a back and forth battle, and it’ll be decided by which fighter can impose his will before it goes to a decision. It’s little more than a coin toss, and even though Clementi is on a four-fight win streak, I have to go with Stout.

MW: Ed "Short Fuse" Herman (14-4) vs. Demian Maia (6-0) – Herman is a solid fighter on a three-fight win streak, but Maia is a jiu-jitsu world champion who just keeps getting better with every fight. Maia doesn’t have a big name win yet, but this fight against Herman is exactly what he needs to put himself near the upper echelon of the middleweight division. Look out for this kid after he submits Herman.

MW: Jason "Dooms" Day (16-5) vs. Alan "The Talent" Belcher (12-4) – Day has more pro experience, but a lot of Belcher’s experience is at a higher level. Belcher also hits like a ton of bricks and, even though he’s coming off of an injury, should be ready for this fight against Day.

MW: Joe Doerksen (39-11) vs. Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald (19-9) – A couple of middle-of-the-road Canadian middleweights will square off in this fight, and it should be a doozie. Neither fighter has ever quite made it over the hump, but you can be sure that both of these experienced grapplers will show up to fight in their native country. I’ve had a difficult time picking a winner in this one, but I think I’m set on MacDonald.

LW: Mark Bocek (5-1) vs. Mac Danzig (17-4-1) – Danzig won the sixth installment of The Ultimate Fighter at welterweight, but he immediately drops back down to his natural weight of 155 pounds to take on Canadian Mark Bocek, a jiu-jitsu specialist. Danzig, also a grappler, has a lot more experience than Bocek and should be able to able to submit him early.

MW: Charles "Chainsaw" McCarthy (10-4) vs. Michael "The Count" Bisping (14-1) – The only way that McCarthy has ever won is via submission, and Bisping is a striker. Something has to give. McCarthy trains with a good camp in American Top Team, and Bisping is perhaps the best fighter to ever come out of Britain.

Mike is coming down from light heavyweight to fight at 185 pounds, and some say that it’s because he can’t hang with guys like Matt Hamill (who he arguably lost to) and Rashad Evans (who he definitely lost to) at 205. Time will tell if he becomes a contender in the middleweight division, but he has to get past the “Chainsaw” first. It should be a late round knockout.

MW: Nate "The Rock" Quarry (9-2) vs. Kalib Starnes (8-2-1) – You won’t find a bigger Nate Quarry fan than myself, and that’s because this guy has more passion than almost any other fighter out there. He could have retired after he lost via a brutal knockout to Rich Franklin and injured his back, but he battled back and is back on top of his game at 36 years old. He’ll probably never make it back to the championship level that he was at before, but he can be a game fighter and definitely beat guys like Kalib Starnes, who is a journeyman at best.

Starnes is another Canadian, and likes to fight on the mat, but Quarry has a solid wrestling background and should be able to keep things on his feet long enough to knock out Kalib in the second round.

MW: Travis Lutter (9-4) vs. Rich "Ace" Franklin (22-3) – Let’s just say that Rich Franklin is no longer unbeatable. It seems like he should still beat a fighter like Travis Lutter, but there is no way that he can be at the top of his game, especially after back-to-back losses to Anderson Silva in less than a year.

Franklin is the type of fighter that has never been great at anything, but he’s always been OK in most aspects of MMA. That is both good and bad. It’s good because he’s pretty well-rounded and is comfortable in any position in the Octagon, and it’s bad because he doesn’t have any go-to moves for when he needs to finish a fight. He’s been able to finish in 20 of his 22 wins, but a quick glance at his record shows a bunch of wins over above average opponents at best.

Lutter, on the other hand, does have a specialty: jiu-jitsu. Franklin is a wrestler if anything, but Lutter should be able to take him down and pound him out. I am looking at a big upset in this fight, as I see Lutter taking it by submission in the third round.

WW title: Matt "The Terror" Serra (9-4) vs. Georges "Rush" St. Pierre (15-2) – This is the big one. I’ve been on a bit of a hot streak recently in picking main event fights – I’ve picked eight straight – and I don’t see my streak in jeopardy at all in this fight. Sure, Serra is a good story after shocking the world last year to take St. Pierre’s belt, but his time in the sun is up, and it’s the young Canadian’s time to shine.

GSP is not only the most athletic fighter in MMA, but he’s also the best-rounded and arguably the most dominant (although there’s a guy at 185 pounds that would beg to differ). He outwrestled perhaps the best wrestler to ever fight in MMA in Matt Hughes in his last fight, and that’s after only taking up the sport when he began his MMA training. Serra is a solid jiu-jitsu fighter, but he seems reluctant to use it at times, as seven of his thirteen pro fights have gone the distance and he’s only won four via submission. St. Pierre is just a different kind of fighter, and I believe that he takes this one via TKO easily.



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