Note: I am only considering lines -2.5 or higher as upsets
Norv Turner doesn't even start the season until he gets four losses under his belt
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Line: Buccaneers -3
Chargers upset chances: 75%
Tampa Bay has been playing great the last four weeks, but San Diego has become so predictable that we already know what’s coming. Every year the Chargers are a semi-contender that underperforms for long stretches of the season, until everyone has written them off, and then they decide to play great for a few weeks just to give their fans a little hope—and then fall apart all over again. So we are probably in the stretch of the season were San Diego plays like a Super Bowl contender for a few weeks.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints:
Line: Falcons -3
Saints upset chances: 65%
The Falcons are bound to lose sometime—they are not going undefeated. So what better team to beat them than the New Orleans Saints? Sure, the Saints have had a rollercoaster of a season without Head Coach Sean Payton, but they have figured out how to survive and have actually looked good over the last few weeks. New Orleans will be desperate to win this game, and even thought Atlanta continues to stay motivated because their perceived lack of respect from the media, this is a game ripe with upset potential.
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks:
Line: Seahawks -6
Jets upset chances: 45%
The Jets are in desperation mode and Rex Ryan has to know his job is on the line if New York misses the playoffs. Seattle also needs a win to stay ahead of the Lions and Vikings for the sixth spot in the NFC. A Jets vs. Seahawks matchup will probably be a low scoring defensive battle, which is exactly the kind of game that benefits New York.
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens:
Line: Ravens -9
Raiders upset chances: 30%
The Ravens have played three games that were decided by two points are less this season, and couple that with the fact that they always thrown in a few stinkers every season, and we have a game that has some upset potential. Yes, it’s the Raiders we are talking about, but there is still a small chance at an upset. Oakland played a close game with the Falcons a few weeks ago, and had a chance to actually win the game. The Ravens have so many questions surrounding them on both offense and defense that a Raiders win would not be shocking at all.