Week 4 NFL Fantasy Football Start Em' and Sit Em'

9/26/12 in NFL   |   jmessick86   |   68 respect

FanIQ | Sports Rumors, Gossip, Blogs, News & Discussion ForumsAfter a crazy week of upsets and horrible officiating, it's now that time of the week when we need to set up our fantasy football lineups. One thing I would like to point out, I'm not going to put players like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc., in this list because it is common sense to start those guys. If I feel they will struggle I will not hesitate to put them in the bench section. Also if I haven't done analysis of someone you would like to hear about send me a message or post a comment and I'll get back to you pretty quickly.

First let's start with the QB's that will stand out this weekend:

Joe Flacco QB, Baltimore Ravens: 
With the Cleveland Browns coming to town with the 27th rated pass defense and with Joe Haden still suspended ,Flacco is coming off a hot game against the New England Patriots. There will be no reason he shouldn't continue his current hot streak. The Browns have also allowed 8 TD passes in the first 3 games this season. 
Projected Points: 22
Actual Points: 22

Matt Ryan QB, Atlanta Falcons: 
Ryan has led the Falcons to a fast 3-0 start and the Carolina Panthers shouldn't be able to slow them down. Roddy White and Julio Jones are mismatches for any team and the Panthers are just an average passing defense. Ryan has the highest passer rating of any QB in the league right now at 114.0. 
Projected Points: 24
Actual Points: 24

Peyton Manning QB, Denver Broncos: 
So far Peyton has started games slow and finished strong and that was against good defensive teams. Peyton has been average at best so far, but a weak passing defense of the Raiders will help pad his stats some. Look for Manning to throw for 300+ yards and 3 TD's Sunday against Oakland.
Projected Points: 29
Actual Points: 25

Sleeper QB's This Week

Kevin Kolb QB, Arizona Cardinals: 
Miami isn't exactly an intimidating pass defense and there's no way they can cover Larry Fitzgerald. Somebody has to get Fitz the ball and Kolb is that guy this week. Miami has only been able to get to the QB 3 times this season, so Kolb should have plenty of time to find open options.
Projected Points: 18
Actual Points: 20

Andy Dalton QB, Cincinnati Bengals:
The Bengals are playing Jacksonville this week and similarly to Kolb the Jaguars don't have anyone that can cover A.J. Green. Dalton has been sharp so far this season with a 2/1 TD to INT ratio. I expect that to continue this week.
Projected Points: 19
Actual Points: 21

Christian Ponder QB, Minnesota Vikings:
Minnesota travels to Detroit Sunday to face the Lions. Through week 3 Christian Ponder has a 104.9 rating, 5th in the NFL. The Lions have allowed a 109.3 QB rating through the first three games. Ponder did this without Jerome Simpson, a talented receiver that he is getting back this Sunday from suspension. With Harvin being able to play his natural position and Simpson on the outside the Vikings should have success.
Projected Points: 24
Actual Points: 4

QB's That Should Be Benched:

Jake Locker QB, Tennessee Titans: 
I understand he had a big week last week. If you read my analysis of Ponder it's because the Lions are allowing a 109.3 QB rating this season. The two weeks prior he had 10 points each week. This week against the Texans I expect more of the 10 point contribution. Bench Locker this week unless you are stuck with him.
Actual Points: 0 (Got Injured)

Cam Newton QB, Carolina Panthers: 
Probably a big surprise for most of you. There's a reason Atlanta is 3-0 and it isn't only because of the offense. So far this season the Falcons have only allowed 2 passing TD's and 7 INT's. Cam struggled with the Giants defense last week and his character is in question. While I don't expect him to have as bad a game as last week, he isn't bouncing back this week either. Cam will probably score around 12 points.
Actual Points: 30

Jay Culter QB, Chicago Bears: 
No need for much explanation here. Cutler has turnstiles for offensive lineman and doesn't have much help in the run game with Forte out this week. Stay away from Cutler and his 58.6 QB rating.

Mike Vick QB, Philadelphia Eagles: 
Vick has a chance to prove me wrong this week, but I don't see it happening. The pass rush of the Giants is too great for a struggling offensive line. Vick turns the ball over some more in this game. Even though the Giants secondary keeps getting depleted due to injury, there won't be enough time for Vick to find an open man.
Actual Points: 17

WR's/TE's That Will Have Big Games:

Percy Harvin WR, Minnesota Vikings: 
Jerome Simpson will be back this week after serving his suspension. What does that mean for Percy? That means he gets to play his more natural position of slot receiver and have mismatches all game. Expect Harvin to blow up against the Lions.
Projected Points: 18
Actual Points: 9

Larry Fitzgerald WR, Arizona Cardinals: 
This used to be an automatic start in fantasy leagues, but not after his first 2 weeks this season totaling 6 points. He had a good game last week against Philly and I expect him to have an even bigger game against Miami. The Dolphin's secondary is pretty horrible outside of Richard Marshall who is hardly a household name.
Projected Points: 22
Actual Points: 12

Julio Jones WR, Atlanta Falcons:
With Roddy White on the other side of the field the Panther can't afford to double either one of them, not to mention HOF TE Tony Gonzalez has to have someone on him as well. Julio benefits from the matchups as he is a strong, athletic WR. He should have no problem going over the century mark in this game.
Projected Points: 15
Actual Points: 3

Demaryius Thomas WR, Denver Broncos:
Oakland has a poor passing defense and up to this point Demaryius has been Manning's most targeted receiver this season. With the combination of poor pass defense and Thomas' speed and size,I like his his chances of putting up big numbers in this game.
Projected Points: 16
Actual Points: 8

Jordy Nelson WR, Green Bay Packers:
Nelson has struggled so far this season, but I see the Packers and Saints game being a shootout and Nelson has turned into Rodgers' favorite target. This should be Nelson's 2012 coming out party as last year was not a fluke.
Projected Points: 15
Actual Points: 15

Martellus Bennett TE, New York Giants:
Bennett has been getting better and better every week and I believe it is because of a mixture of confidence and better understanding of the playbook. Look for Bennett continue his streak of TD's in this one.
Projected Points: 12
Actual Points: 0

Sleeper Receivers:

Lance Moore WR, New Orleans:
Moore is not a big name player, but he has been the most consistent receiver for the Saints so far this season. With this game likely being a shootout Moore should see a bunch of targets.
Projected Points: 10
Actual Points: 6

Andrew Hawkins WR, Cincinnati Bengals:
A speedster, Hawkins is a mismatch for any defense. Dalton seems like to passing to Hawkins so look for him to have a good game against the Jags.
Projected Points: 8
Actual Points: 3

Jerome Simpson WR, Minnesota Vikings:
It has been reported that Simpson was performing like a pro bowl receiver in camp. With the combination of him wanting to prove himself and Christian Ponder coming into his own this season Simpson should have a good game against a weak Lions secondary.
Projected Points: 12
Actual Points: 5

Andre Roberts WR, Arizona Cardinals:
Fitzgerald isn't the only receiver that is going to have a big game against the Dolphins. Roberts has been extremely consistent this season and this week his good play continues.
Projected Points: 10
Actual Points: 23

Receivers to Consider Benching

Kenny Britt WR, Tennessee Titans:

Still coming off an ankle injury Britt is not likely to have a good game against the Texans defense and Pro Bowl CB Jonathan Joseph. Unless you are just trying to plug holes keep Britt on the Bench.
Actual Points: 0 (Didn't play)

Danny Amendola WR, St. Louis Rams:
A hot waiver wire pickup last week, but not a smart start this week unless you have no other options in the flex. Seattle is a good open field tackling team and Amendola gets most of his yards after the catch. Amendola scores in the single digits this week, unless you play in a PPR format.
Actual Points: 11

Brandon Marshall WR, Chicago Bears:
This has nothing to do with Marshall's talent, but has everything to do with Cutler and the O-line struggling. The Cowboys secondary has improve drastically as well and Marshall most likely will not be a factor in this game.

RB's You Should Start:

Frank Gore RB, San Francisco 49ers:
Gore continues to impress me this season even though he had an off game against Minnesota. The Jets rushing defense has allowed 4.6 yards per carry this season up to this point and it won't get any better against the 49ers. Gore is sure to be heavily involved in the game plan this week.
Projected Points: 14
Actual Points: 13

Ryan Mathews RB, San Diego Chargers:
Fresh off of his collar bone injury Mathews looked pretty healthy last week. He should play well against a Chiefs team allowing 148.7 yards rushing per game. He is also a good receiver out of the back field. Mathews should see anywhere from 20-25 touches in this game.
Projected Points: 15
Actual Points: 8

Marshawn Lynch RB, Seattle Seahawks:
Beast Mode has been averaging 101.6 yards per game and hasn't played a poor rushing defense yet. St. Louis won't be able to stop him either. Lynch has the upside this week to be the league's best fantasy running back. Seattle likes to run, since they have a Rookie QB in Wilson.
Projected Points: 20
Actual Points: 20

BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB, Cincinnati Bengals:
The Bengals are playing the Jaguars this weekend and the Jaguars are not an impressive run stopping defense. The Jaguars have allowed 5 rushing TD's on the ground. The Law Firm should have no problem getting a TD against the soft Jaguars D and he will get his touches.
Projected Points: 13
Actual Points: 7

Cedric Benson RB, Green Bay Packers:
Who is the best RB in the league you ask? Up to this point it has been anybody running the ball against the New Orleans Saints defense and with McCarthy trying to get Benson involved early an often this is a favorable match-up for the Packers. The Saints have allowed an NFL high 6 rushing touchdowns and 645 rushing yards. Benson has been pretty good this season already, so this is a prime opportunity for a big game.
Projected Points: 18
Actual Points: 10

RB Sleepers:

Michael Bush RB, Chicago Bears:
With Forte still sitting out with an ankle sprain Bush will get all the work against the Cowboys this weekend. Bush is one of the league's best goal line backs and should find the end zone this weekend.
Projected Points: 10

Tashard Choice RB, Buffalo Bills:
With Spiller out and Jackson likely out as well Choice will get the start. He is a solid back who hits the holes well and also catches the ball well out of the backfield. So if you are looking for a flex play this weekend Choice could be a decent fill in.
Projected Points: 8
Actual Points: 1

Sit Em' on the Bench RB's

Alfred Morris RB, Washington Redskins:
Washington is playing against the Bucs this Sunday which has the best rushing defense in the NFL up to this point. Don't expect Morris to have a good game this week.
Actual Points: 17

Shonn Greene RB, New York Jets:
Every year the Jets seem to think Greene is the answer at running back for them. He hasn't gotten any better. At 2.8 yards a carry it is time to look else where. Bilal Powell is starting to take some of his touches away and for good reason too. Besides the factor that the 49ers have a great defense Greene also has a fumbling problem. Stay away from Greene.
Actual Points: 3

Chris Johnson RB, Tennessee Titans:
I still have faith in Chris Johnson returning to CJ2K form. Just not this week against the Texans. The Texans should get to a fast start and force the Titans to abandon the run early on. Sit him this week, he should have a better week next week against Minnesota however.
Actual Points: 15

Jamaal Charles RB, Kansas City Chiefs:
Ride em while he's hot right? Not in my opinion, the Chargers are 4th in rushing yards allowed and like I said earlier, anybody can shred the Saints D right now. Charles is still a safe flex play, but not an RB1 this week.
Actual Points: 19

Steven Jackson RB, St. Louis Rams:
They are facing the tough Seahawks D and Jackson is coming off of a groin injury. Stay away from Jackson who has had a slow start anyway who has yet to gain 100 yards in a game or score a TD.
Actual Points: 6
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