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10/26/07
What it Takes to Pick a Winner at the Pep Boys Auto 500
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Carl Edwards Pep Boys 500

This weekend the Nascar Nextel Cup Series heads to Atlanta for the Pep Boys Auto 500.  With 4 races left before Nascar crowns their 2007 champion, Jeff Gordon holds a 53 point lead over teammate Jimmie Johnson and RCR driver Clint Bowyer.  Gordon will be looking to maintain or increase that lead while Johnson and Bowyer will be trying to drive their way back into the title hunt.  The Atlanta track is Nascar's fastest track that hasn't had speeds restricted by plates.  This 1.5 mile track is known for its breath-taking finishes and furious competition.  The track has been known to produce numerous lead changes and drivers consider it a fun place to race because there is more than one racing groove.

 

When it comes to racing at Atlanta, the keys are horsepower, a good aero package and handling.  A driver must be comfortable enough to run at high speeds or they will struggle on Sunday.  The cars must handle well through the corners, allowing a driver to drive really hard and aggressive, have plenty of power to max their speeds on the straightaways and be comfortable enough for a driver to turn the steering wheel and not feel like the car will spin out.

 

In the last 10 races run at Atlanta, Tony Stewart has the best average finish among active drivers.  Last season, he won this race and overall, he has 9 top 10's in that span.  Joe Gibbs runs well at this track so expect Stewart, Hamlin and even J.J. Yeley to have good races.  If you still have starts with either Jimmie Johnson or Jeff Gordon, you can't go wrong by having them on your team either.  Johnson has won at Atlanta twice while Gordon has taken the checkered once in the past 10 races here.  Overall, they are 3rd and 5th among active drivers at this track.  Roush Racing's best bet will be Carl Edwards, who has 2 wins and five top 10's in six races at Atlanta.  Roush has been very consistent at this track as well, so look for the Roush contingent to run well.

 

 


Others to Watch

 

Kasey Kahne - He's raced to four top fives in seven careers starts at Atlanta, including a win from the pole in '06. However, Kahne has finished outside of the top 30 in his other three starts. Kahne is a high-risk/high-reward option for fantasy participants this weekend.

 

Ryan Newman - He once qualified for the pole in Atlanta seven consecutive times, that alone should make you want to roll the dice on him. He also has top fives in two of the last weeks and has four top-10 runs at this track in his career.

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr - In 16 career starts there, he's had a win and an amazing nine top-fives, including three in the last four trips to Hotlanta.

 

Juan Pablo Montoya - Montoya took advantage of the short track at the Subway 500 to post his sixth top-10 finish of the year. It marked his second top-10 finish (three top 15s) in his past five starts.  In only his fourth Nextel Cup start, Montoya earned a top-five finish at Atlanta.

 

What the experts think

 

My pick - Carl Edwards - He ranks fifth in the Chase for the Cup and owns three victories this season. He'll be aiming for his 10th top five of the season at Atlanta. Edwards has posted great success at AMS, winning both races in '05. He also had clinched three top fives and five top 10s in six career races, including seventh in the last two events at the track.

 

Sleeper Pick - Greg Biffle - He's been fifth, seventh and 10th the last three times the circuit's come through Atlanta in October, and he has five top-fives in nine trips there overall.

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