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This weekend the Nascar Nextel Cup Series heads south for the Dickies 500. Held on the 1.5 mile quad at the Texas Motor Speedway, the Dickies 500 is the 3rd to last race in the chase to determine the 2007 Nextel Cup Champion. Heading into this race, Hendrick teammates Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are separated by 9 points, way ahead of Clint Bowyer who sits in 3rd place. The Texas Motor Speedway is considered one of those cookie cutter racetracks and in the 12 races run here, Jeff Burton is the only driver to win twice, thanks to his win in the spring race. The Texas track is very similar to Lowe's and Atlanta so expect the drivers who do well at those tracks to have success here.
When it comes to racing at Texas, horsepower is the number one key to victory. This track is hard on engines because you have to have a lot of top-end horsepower for the straightaways and a lot of bottom end to pull you off the corners. Fuel mileage will come into play because normally there are a lot of long green flag runs. As a result, tire issue comes into play because the fast pace is hard on tires. The loads in the corner are so great on the right front that the teams will look at the tire for problems all day long. This race will be won by the team that has one of the better engine programs and makes good decisions in the pits on tire wear.
Of the active teams and owners, Roush Racing and Hendrick Motorsports have the best overall records at Texas and considering how things have played out this season, that's bad news for the rest of the Nextel Cup Series this week. As far as visiting victory lane, Roush Racing leads the way with 5 wins while Yates Racing has won 2 races. Hendrick, DEI, Evernham, Gibbs, Penski and RCR have all won one race. Look at Roush racing with Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards and Jamie McMurray to be strong and if you have the starts left, you can't go wrong by picking the two headed Hendrick monster of Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon.
Others to Watch
Jeff Burton - He's rebounded recently to post two top fives and a 12th in his last three Cup races. He owns the most wins (2) at Texas among active drivers, including a victory in April. He also finished sixth in last year's race.
Dale Earnhardt Jr and Martin Truex Jr. - To determine who will run well at Texas, look back at drivers that ran well at Atlanta. While they can't race the same cars because of their late-race wrecks, Truex and Earnhardt will be strong.
Mark Martin - Though he finished last at Atlanta, Martin clinched a fourth at Dover and followed that up with a 12th and 16th in his next two Cup races. He has the most top 10s (4) and top fives (3) in the past five seasons, including a third in April, ninth in ‘06 and second in Nov. '05.
Casey Mears - Mears has been driving well in recent weeks, producing five top-15 finishes in his past seven starts with four top 10's. He's raced to four top-15 finishes in his past five starts at the track.
Jamie McMurray - He's struggled in his last five Cup events, but he races well at Texas. He has the most Top 10s (4) in the past five seasons, including a fifth in April's race.
Juan Pablo Montoya and Reed Sorenson - A couple of guys who could be sleepers are these two Ganassi cars. They ran well at Atlanta, but Montoya didn't have an opportunity to finish strong because he had a right front tire problem right off the bat. Sorenson finished third. Those two guys ran awfully well at Texas in the spring as well.
My pick - Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has rebounded from a four-race funk with back-to-back top-5 finishes as the Chase for the Nextel Cup enters the final turn. He has finished inside the top three in three consecutive events at this track (he led 179 laps in those races) and owns five top-10 finishes in his past seven starts here.
Sleeper pick - Kasey Kahne - He's raced well lately, finishing with three top 10s in the last five Cup events. That includes a ninth at Atlanta. He's performed nicely at Texas, winning last year's April race and finishing second in April '04.
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