At FanIQ, we'll be breaking down each playoff game from every angle...5 Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) at 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6). Saturday, 8:00 PM on NBC from Heinz Field.
Both of these teams have been successful for the most part because of defense as well as a power running offense. The Jaguars went in to Pittsburgh only a few weeks ago and beat the Steelers. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh struggled ending the year, going 1-3 in their final 4 games, and to make it worse, they lost many players to injury.
Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
The Jaguars offense is all about the power running game, and they have one of the best. The one-two punch of Taylor and Jones-Drew is very tough to stop. The passing game doesn't have any dynamic receivers, but they have very good blocking, and a QB in Garrard that doesn't make dumb mistakes.
The Steelers run D was strong most of the year, but it struggled when they faced the Jaguars earlier. Losing Aaron Smith has been a big blow, and they need Casey Hampton to be at his very best. They have one of the better groups of linebackers, and their play plays a huge role. Injuries in the secondary hurt their chances too, as Polamalu has been beat up for a while and Townsend is also hurt.
For the Jaguars, they have to stick to their pound the rock strategy. If they run as well as they did last time, they will be set. The Steelers must stop the run. They have to force the Jaguars to pass a lot, because none of those receivers are very dangerous.
Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
The Steelers, like the Jaguars, have an offense that relies on the power running game. However, losing leading rusher Willie Parker, along with both starting tackles definitely hurts their cause. The interior linemen will need to be at their best for the powerful Davenport. If they can't get the run game going, it's bad news. That line has a terrible time pass blocking. Roethlisberger his receivers can be effective, but if they are forced to pass a ton, they will have issues.
The Jaguars run D took a big hit with Marcus Stroud being out for the year. While Henderson is still a great DT and Rob Meier has done a good job, that line is signifcantly weaker without Stroud. They have a physical defense still, and one of the most physical secondaries in the league.
For the Steelers, it will be all about blocking. If that injured line plays well, that offense has a shot. If the line struggles, bad things will happen. For the Jaguars, you have to dominate in the trenches. If you shut their run game down and force them to pass, you can force turnovers.
Special Teams
Jeff Reed has been a very accurate kicker for the Steelers, however he doesn't deep range, and won't make 50+ yarders. Scobee has better range, but occasionally has accuracy issues. Both have rookie punters, and while the Jags Podlesh has been average, the Steelers Sepulveda has had a very good year. Allen Rossum is a good veteran returner for the Steelers, but he's a bit hurt. Jones-Drew is a great kick returner, and Northcutt is a solid punt returner.
Key Match-Ups
G Alan Faneca vs DT John Henderson: With the line injures, the all-pro guard has to be at his best, and he'll have his hands full with powerful DT John Henderson.
WR Hines Ward vs CB Rashean Mathis: Perhaps the most physical receiver against the most physical corner in the league. Expect a lot of hitting and pushing between these two.
The Verdict
With a beat up line and no Willie Parker, I don't think the Steelers offense will be very effective. I think the Jaguars will get a few turnovers out of them, and while I don't see the Jaguars running as well as they did in week 15, I think they'll do well enough to be effective and to avoid turnovers. Jaguars 27, Steelers 16.
If the Chargers beat Tennessee, the winner of this game will face the Patriots. If the Titans win that game, the winner of this game will face the Colts.
Who do you think will win? What do you think the keys to this game will be?
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